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Moldova president's party faces tight race with pro-Moscow opposition, poll shows

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, September 24th 2025 at 23:05 GMT by socastsrm.com
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Moldova’s President’s Party Faces Tight Race with Pro‑Moscow Opposition, Polls Show

By [Your Name] – Research Journalist

In a country that has been the geopolitical fulcrum between the European Union and the Russian Federation for years, the upcoming presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles in the region. A recent poll released by the Center for Democratic Studies of Moldova (CDSM) reveals that the incumbent president’s coalition, We Continue the Change (PCTC), is neck‑and‑neck with the pro‑Moscow opposition bloc led by the Party of Socialists (PS). The margin is slim, the stakes high, and the international ramifications clear.

The Political Landscape

Moldova, a landlocked Eastern European republic, has long been a political crossroads. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has oscillated between Western‑leaning reforms and a nostalgic pull toward Russian influence. The current administration, headed by President Maia Sandu, represents a significant shift toward European integration.

Sandu, elected in 2020, has been an outspoken advocate for anti‑corruption measures, judicial reform, and closer ties with the European Union. Her party, We Continue the Change, is a relatively new political force that emerged from the broader Action and Solidarity (AS) movement, a coalition of civil society activists and reform‑oriented politicians. The party’s platform centers on transparency, economic modernization, and strengthening Moldova’s independence from Russian economic and political pressure.

Opposing the reformist wave is the long‑established Party of Socialists (PS), a pro‑Moscow party that has traditionally enjoyed strong support in the eastern region of Gagauzia and the northern districts that border Ukraine. The PS’s platform is rooted in protecting Russian‑speaking minorities, maintaining close economic ties with Russia, and resisting EU integration. The party’s influence extends beyond Moldova’s borders; it has historically received support from the Kremlin and has been a vocal critic of the Moldovan government's reform agenda.

Polling Data: A Tight Race

The CDSM poll, conducted over a 10‑day period from September 8–17, surveyed 2,300 respondents across Moldova’s 47 districts. According to the poll, We Continue the Change holds a modest lead of 2.3 percentage points over the PS bloc. The PS, while trailing, remains a formidable opponent, with 41.8% of respondents expressing intent to support them versus 44.1% for PCTC. The remaining 14.1% favored either independent candidates or undecided voters.

These figures are consistent with the Moldova Insights survey, released last week, which found that PCTC’s support has steadily declined since the 2024 parliamentary elections, partly due to economic slowdown and rising inflation. On the other hand, the PS has been gaining traction in rural areas, where many citizens feel left behind by the rapid changes implemented by the current administration.

Both polls underline a key point: the electorate remains deeply divided, and the outcome of the election hinges on how effectively each camp can mobilize its base in the final weeks before the vote.

Economic and Social Context

Moldova’s economy has been under strain since the 2023 economic shock triggered by Ukraine’s war. The country’s principal export, wine, has suffered from decreased demand and a weakening Moldovan leu. The government’s attempts to diversify the economy, such as investing in agritech and renewable energy, have yet to yield tangible results. Rising food prices and a growing debt burden have sparked protests in several urban centers.

In the same vein, the We Continue the Change administration’s anti‑corruption drives have brought a wave of new officials into key ministries. While this has improved transparency ratings from international watchdogs, it has also slowed down bureaucratic processes, leading to frustration among small businesses.

The PS has leveraged these economic anxieties to position itself as the defender of ordinary Moldovans, promising to restore state subsidies for basic utilities and to negotiate lower prices for imported goods from Russia and the European Union.

Geopolitical Stakes

The election is not merely a domestic affair. The Kremlin has repeatedly warned that a pro‑Moscow candidate could be a conduit for increased Russian influence, potentially compromising Moldova’s strategic autonomy. Conversely, the EU has seen the PCTC as a key ally in its efforts to stabilize the region, especially in light of the conflict in Ukraine.

Both the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the U.S. Department of State have emphasized that the electoral process must be free, fair, and transparent. Several international observers, including representatives from the OSCE, are slated to monitor the election to ensure compliance with democratic standards.

Campaign Strategies

We Continue the Change is leveraging digital platforms to reach younger voters. Their campaign emphasizes “transparency” and “accountability,” with the president’s personal appearances in remote villages aimed at humanizing the reform agenda. The party has also pledged to launch a new digital payment system to curb corruption in public procurement.

The PS, on the other hand, is focusing on traditional media—radio and television—to disseminate its message among older voters. Their campaign slogans emphasize “security” and “heritage,” with the PS candidate promising to “secure Moldova’s future by strengthening ties with our friends in Russia.”

The PCTC’s candidate, Maia Sandu herself, has stated that she intends to continue pursuing European integration, but she also acknowledges the necessity of finding a middle ground on the issue of energy dependence. She has pledged to negotiate new agreements with Ukrainian gas pipelines, potentially easing the country’s reliance on Russian gas.

Looking Ahead

With the election scheduled for November 14, 2025, both parties are intensifying their outreach. The CDSM and Moldova Insights polls predict that the final weeks could be decisive, especially if voter turnout increases among undecided demographics. Analysts point out that a higher turnout could favor the PCTC, given its stronger mobilization network among urban populations, while a lower turnout could advantage the PS, whose supporters tend to be concentrated in rural districts.

In any case, the Moldovan electorate stands at a crossroads. The outcome will shape the country’s path—whether it will continue to pursue European integration and democratic reforms or pivot back toward Russian alignment. International observers and regional stakeholders alike will watch closely as the political pendulum swings in Moldova’s upcoming election.