Bolivia to hold presidential run-off between centrist and right-winger

August 18, 2025 – Bolivia will stage its most consequential political showdown since the 2020 election, as the country heads to the polls for a presidential run‑off between centrist former finance minister Gustavo Pedra Zárraga and right‑wing incumbent President Luis Arce of the Movement for Socialism (MAS). The second‑round contest, scheduled for October 18, will decide who will hold the nation’s highest office in a country still reeling from economic turmoil and growing political polarization.

A Brief Recap of the First Round

The initial ballot, held on June 28, produced a narrow top‑two finish: Pedra Zárraga secured 34.9 % of the vote, while Arce captured 31.2 %. The remaining 33.9 % went to five other candidates, none of whom reached the 50 % threshold required to win outright. The centrist’s coalition, the New Bolivia Alliance, drew support from business owners, moderate social‑democrats, and segments of the indigenous electorate that grew weary of MAS’s expansive fiscal policies. Arce, on the other hand, retained his base of MAS loyalists, many of whom value the party’s track record on land reform, mining nationalisation, and social welfare programs.

The Candidates’ Platforms in Contrast

Gustavo Pedra Zárraga – Centrist, Market‑Friendly Reform

Economic Strategy: Pedra Zárraga proposes a comprehensive tax‑reform package aimed at reducing the burden on the middle class and encouraging foreign direct investment. He is a proponent of limited government spending, a stance that starkly contrasts with the state‑driven economic model that has characterised MAS rule.
Social Policies: While pledging to maintain a safety net for the most vulnerable, Pedra Zárraga emphasises that social programs must be financially sustainable. He advocates for a new Social Prosperity Fund financed by a modest increase in mining royalties.
Governance: The candidate promises to fight corruption by streamlining public procurement and increasing transparency through digital platforms. His campaign’s slogan, “Progress by Partnership,” underscores his belief that a balanced relationship between the state and the private sector is essential for growth.

Luis Arce – Right‑Wing, Continuation of MAS Ideology

Economic Strategy: Arce has continued the MAS‑led nationalisation agenda, especially in mining and hydrocarbon sectors. His administration has pushed for a new Comprehensive Energy Pact that seeks to harness Bolivia’s vast natural resources while ensuring local communities benefit.
Social Policies: Arce maintains the focus on indigenous rights, land reform, and the expansion of the Pension for the Elderly program. He vows to protect Bolivia’s “socialist heritage” while attempting to curb inflation through a series of monetary policy interventions.
Governance: The incumbent stresses the need for a strong, decisive government that can “anchor the nation’s progress.” In his campaign, Arce emphasises stability and continuity, arguing that drastic changes could destabilise the country’s fragile economy.

Why This Run‑Off Matters

The election has become a proxy battle for Bolivia’s future trajectory. If Pedra Zárraga wins, the country may pivot toward a more market‑oriented economy, potentially spurring investment and curbing the hyperinflation that has plagued the nation for the past year. However, the risk of social backlash and regional inequality could pose significant challenges.

Conversely, a victory for Arce would signal a continued commitment to MAS’s left‑wing policies and a belief in the state’s pivotal role in regulating the economy. Arce’s supporters fear that the nation’s economic crisis could worsen under a new, more liberal administration that might dismantle protective measures built during the MAS era.

This contest also reflects broader regional trends, where countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Chile are navigating the tensions between progressive social agendas and the need for economic liberalisation. International observers have noted that the outcome could influence investment flows into the Andean region and shape the geopolitical balance between left‑wing and right‑wing blocs in Latin America.

International and Domestic Reactions

United States: The U.S. State Department has expressed support for a “transparent, inclusive electoral process” and highlighted the importance of voter turnout, stating that “Bolivia’s stability is crucial for regional security.”
Regional Partners: Neighboring Chile and Argentina have welcomed the forthcoming run‑off, signalling interest in potential trade agreements and shared economic initiatives.
Civil Society: Indigenous groups and labor unions have issued joint statements demanding that any new administration uphold land rights and social welfare protections, citing fears of marginalisation if the economy is too heavily liberalised.

Key Issues to Watch in the Second Round

Voter Turnout: Historically, turnout in run‑offs has been lower than in first‑round elections. The government is urging citizens to vote, arguing that the stakes have never been higher.
Campaign Finance: Allegations of campaign finance irregularities surfaced during the first round, with several candidates accusing each other of receiving illicit donations. Electoral observers have called for greater transparency.
Security Concerns: Recent reports of sporadic protests in La Paz and Santa Cruz have raised concerns about potential civil unrest during the run‑off. The government has pledged a “police‑friendly” approach to maintain order.

Conclusion

Bolivia’s upcoming presidential run‑off encapsulates the nation’s ongoing struggle to balance economic growth, social equity, and political stability. Whether the electorate leans toward Gustavo Pedra Zárraga’s centrist reforms or Luis Arce’s right‑wing continuation of MAS ideology will determine Bolivia’s path forward for the next four years. The outcome will reverberate across Latin America, shaping discourse on the role of the state in the 21st‑century economy.

For a deeper dive into Bolivia’s economic challenges and the broader context of Latin American politics, visit our coverage of the nation’s inflation crisis and the region’s shifting political alliances.

Read the Full Al Jazeera English Article at:
[ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/18/bolivia-to-hold-presidential-run-off-between-centrist-right-wing-candidates ]