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Ukraine Conflict Intensifies as War Nears 2-Year Mark

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, January 8th 2026 at 6:59 GMT by The Financial Times

Kyiv, Ukraine - January 8th, 2026 - As Ukraine approaches the grim milestone of the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, the conflict is entering a particularly brutal phase. Russia has dramatically intensified its attacks along the eastern front, with the city of Avdiivka becoming the epicenter of some of the most ferocious fighting witnessed in months. This escalation arrives as Kyiv contemplates a potential counteroffensive, a decision complicated by urgent counsel from Western allies and mounting challenges on the ground.

The current Russian strategy appears focused on a deliberate attrition of Ukrainian resources - both ammunition and manpower. Western intelligence assessments suggest Moscow aims to exhaust Ukraine's defenses before unleashing a larger, more comprehensive assault. This has translated into a relentless barrage of artillery fire and a concerted effort to encircle key locations like Avdiivka, a strategically important town in the Donetsk region. Reports from the front lines paint a picture of relentless pressure, with Ukrainian soldiers describing being "thrown everything" Russia possesses.

While Ukraine understandably desires to reclaim territory before the onset of harsher winter conditions, its Western supporters are advocating for a more cautious approach. The core concern revolves around the timing of a counteroffensive. Many believe launching an attack before Ukraine is fully equipped and adequately trained on newly supplied Western weaponry could be counterproductive, potentially playing directly into Russia's hands. This isn't a refusal to support Ukraine's sovereignty, but rather a calculated assessment of maximizing the effectiveness of aid and minimizing potential losses.

The debate surrounding the provision of long-range missiles remains a key sticking point. Some allies continue to express reluctance about providing weapons that could be perceived as escalating the conflict, despite repeated pleas from Kyiv. The provision of such weaponry could significantly alter the battlefield dynamics, allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian-held territory and disrupt logistical supply lines, but carries the risk of provoking a more aggressive response from Moscow.

Beyond the immediate battlefield challenges, Ukraine is grappling with internal issues impacting its fighting capacity. Reports are surfacing regarding difficulties with mobilization efforts and declining troop morale. Soldiers are requesting leave at increasing rates, and instances of desertion, while not widespread, are a growing concern. Maintaining a consistent and motivated fighting force over a prolonged conflict is proving to be a significant hurdle. The grinding nature of the war, characterized by entrenched positions and constant artillery duels, is taking a heavy toll on soldiers' physical and psychological well-being.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains steadfast in his commitment to liberating all Ukrainian territory. In recent statements, he has acknowledged the immense challenges ahead, stating that the fight for freedom and independence will be "long and difficult." Despite the ongoing pressure and the grim realities on the ground, Zelenskyy's resolve remains unbroken, continually appealing for increased international support.

Western officials predict a Russian offensive is likely within the coming weeks or months, with the primary objectives being further territorial gains in eastern Ukraine and a weakening of Ukraine's overall military capabilities. The anticipated offensive is expected to target regions where Russia believes it can achieve incremental gains, potentially attempting to solidify control over areas already occupied and to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes. The coming months will undoubtedly be critical in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the future of Ukraine.