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Bangladesh Faces Growing Instability Amid ISI Interference

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, January 8th 2026 at 15:54 GMT by The Hans India

Dhaka, Bangladesh - January 8th, 2026 - Bangladesh is facing a growing threat of instability as evidence mounts of sustained efforts by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to exploit a deepening political vacuum, working in concert with radical Islamist groups. With the nation's upcoming national elections increasingly overshadowed by boycotts and crackdowns, concerns are rising that Bangladesh could be sliding toward a scenario reminiscent of Afghanistan, marked by the ascendancy of extremist ideologies and violence.

The current crisis stems from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)'s decision to boycott the elections. Led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the BNP is currently under significant pressure from the Sheikh Hasina-led government, facing arrests of key leaders and a perceived suppression of dissent. This political isolation has created a fertile ground for external actors to intervene and influence the outcome, and it appears the ISI is seizing this opportunity with both hands.

Sources within Bangladeshi intelligence, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirm a concerted effort by the ISI to fund, equip, and otherwise support both the BNP and various Islamist organizations. This support isn't limited to material assistance; a significant component is a sophisticated disinformation campaign leveraging social media to amplify anti-government sentiment and sow discord. The aim, analysts suggest, is not necessarily to see the BNP win, but to destabilize the country to a degree where it becomes susceptible to broader extremist influence.

Bangladesh has a history of grappling with Islamist extremism, and the ISI has long been accused of cultivating relationships with groups seeking to undermine the secular foundations of the nation. The current context - a weakened opposition, a government stretched thin, and a populace increasingly frustrated with economic conditions - provides the ISI with a perfect storm to expand its influence and potentially establish a foothold for more radical elements.

Islamist groups are reportedly actively escalating their activities, moving beyond minor disruptions to attacks targeting law enforcement and government officials. While the full extent of their capabilities remains unclear, intelligence reports suggest they are preparing for a significant increase in violent incidents in the lead-up to and potentially following the elections. The objective, according to experts, isn't simply to win political power, but to create an environment of fear and chaos that allows them to operate with greater impunity and further their ideological agenda.

The Sheikh Hasina government is acutely aware of the escalating threat. Counterterrorism units have increased surveillance and conducted raids targeting suspected militants, and the government is working to bolster security around key infrastructure. However, these efforts are hampered by the sheer scale of the challenge and the resources available to the ISI and its allies. The BNP's boycott of the election further complicates matters, removing a potential channel for dialogue and creating a more polarized environment.

Regional implications of a destabilized Bangladesh are significant. The country shares borders with India and Myanmar and is a crucial node in the regional trade network. A rise in Islamist extremism could not only lead to a humanitarian crisis within Bangladesh but also spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating existing security concerns. Some analysts worry about a potential increase in refugee flows and the possibility of Bangladesh becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups operating in the wider region.

The international community is closely monitoring the situation, and calls for a peaceful and inclusive election are growing. However, without a meaningful dialogue between the government and the opposition, and a concerted effort to address the underlying socio-economic grievances fueling discontent, the risk of further instability remains high. The next few months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate this crisis and avoid a descent into chaos, or if it will succumb to the pressures exerted by external forces and internal extremism.