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Bangladesh Democracy: Tarique Rahman's Return Unlikely to Shift Power

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. que-rahman-s-return-unlikely-to-shift-power.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, January 7th 2026 at 10:20 GMT by moneycontrol.com
      Locale: Dhaka Division, BANGLADESH

Bangladesh's Political Stalemate: Why Tarique Rahman's Return Offers Little Hope for Democratic Revival

The recent return of Tarique Rahman, the eldest son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and a key leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), to London after a 17-year exile, is being met with skepticism rather than optimism regarding the future of democracy in Bangladesh. A recent Moneycontrol article, alongside linked sources, paints a bleak picture of a nation where democratic space has drastically shrunk under the prolonged rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and where Rahman's return is unlikely to fundamentally alter the deeply entrenched political landscape. The article argues that while Rahman's presence may galvanize the opposition, structural issues and a heavy-handed state apparatus make a genuine challenge to Hasina’s authority highly improbable in the near future.

The core of the issue lies in what many perceive as the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions in Bangladesh. Hasina’s Awami League (AL) has been in power for the past 15 years, and critics argue this period has been marked by increasing authoritarianism. The article points to the erosion of the judiciary’s independence, the politicization of the election commission, and the suppression of dissent as key hallmarks of this trend. Crucially, the Digital Security Act (DSA), despite being replaced with the less draconian Online Safety Act, continues to be a tool used to silence critics and journalists. While the new Act attempts to address concerns about freedom of speech, it retains provisions that critics say allow for broad interpretation and potential abuse, enabling the government to clamp down on online expression.

The 2024 general election, which saw a landslide victory for Hasina and her party, was widely condemned by international observers as neither free nor fair. The BNP, led by Rahman (even in absentia), boycotted the election, alleging widespread rigging and intimidation. The Moneycontrol article emphasizes that the boycott, combined with historically low voter turnout, underscored a growing disillusionment with the electoral process itself. The election wasn’t simply a win for the AL; it was perceived by many as a confirmation of a rigged system where genuine opposition is systematically stifled.

Tarique Rahman’s return is seen as a symbolic move, intended to strengthen the morale of the BNP’s rank and file and potentially coordinate a more sustained movement against the government. However, the article highlights the significant challenges he faces. Firstly, Rahman remains a convicted criminal, sentenced in absentia to several years in prison on corruption charges – charges the BNP and its supporters claim are politically motivated. This makes it impossible for him to participate directly in the electoral process. Secondly, the BNP itself is fragmented and faces internal challenges in unifying its base.

Furthermore, the state's security apparatus is overwhelmingly loyal to Hasina and has been ruthlessly effective in suppressing opposition movements. The crackdown on protests leading up to and following the January 2024 elections saw thousands of opposition supporters arrested, many facing fabricated charges. The article references the brutal suppression of protests, including the use of live ammunition, and the crackdown on independent media, as evidence of the government’s determination to maintain its grip on power at any cost. These tactics have created a climate of fear that makes it incredibly difficult for any meaningful opposition to flourish.

The article also delves into the geopolitical context, highlighting the complex relationship between Bangladesh, India, and China. India, traditionally a close ally of Bangladesh, is viewed as supportive of the Hasina government, primarily due to shared concerns about regional stability and counter-terrorism. This perceived support from India further complicates the BNP’s position, as any significant escalation of protests could be seen as destabilizing the region and drawing the ire of New Delhi. China, meanwhile, is increasing its economic influence in Bangladesh, offering an alternative source of support for the Hasina government.

In conclusion, while Tarique Rahman’s return represents a potential boost for the BNP, the Moneycontrol article presents a compelling argument that it won’t, in itself, be enough to revive democracy in Bangladesh. The systemic erosion of democratic institutions, the government's heavy-handed tactics, the internal challenges within the BNP, and the complex geopolitical landscape all contribute to a deeply entrenched political stalemate. The article suggests that meaningful change will require far more than a change in leadership; it demands a fundamental overhaul of the political system, a restoration of the rule of law, and a genuine commitment to inclusive governance – prospects that, at present, appear dim. The situation demands international pressure and a concerted effort to ensure a level playing field for all political actors, but as the article indicates, even those efforts face significant hurdles given the existing power dynamics.