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Azerbaijan Launches Offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, Escalating Decades-Long Conflict

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. o-karabakh-escalating-decades-long-conflict.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, January 5th 2026 at 11:31 GMT by BBC
      Locale: Kharkiv Oblast, UKRAINE

A Frozen Conflict Rekindled: Azerbaijan’s Offensive and the Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

For decades, the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a tinderbox, a point of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The BBC News article, "Nagorno-Karabakh: What's happening in disputed region?", details the recent dramatic escalation of this long-simmering conflict, focusing on Azerbaijan’s military offensive launched in late September 2023 and its potential implications for regional stability. The situation represents a significant shift from the previous uneasy peace and poses profound questions about the future of the Armenian population inhabiting the region.

A History of Conflict & Previous Ceasefires:

To understand the current crisis, it’s crucial to grasp the historical context. Nagorno-Karabakh is a predominantly Armenian-populated enclave within Azerbaijan's territory. Historically part of Armenia before being incorporated into Soviet Azerbaijan, its status has been a source of conflict since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. A brutal war ensued, resulting in significant territorial gains for Armenian forces and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani civilians – an event known as the “Khojaly massacre” which remains a deeply sensitive point for Azerbaijan. A ceasefire was brokered in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories under the control of Armenian separatists backed by Armenia itself, despite not being internationally recognized as independent.

The article highlights that this precarious peace has been punctuated by several flare-ups over the years, most notably in 2016 (the "Four-Day War") and again in 2020. The 2020 conflict resulted in Azerbaijan regaining significant territory, significantly altering the balance of power and weakening Armenia’s position. A ceasefire brokered by Russia, the EU, and the United States established a fragile status quo, with Russian peacekeepers deployed to monitor the situation. As detailed in an accompanying BBC article ("Armenia accuses Russia of failing to protect Nagorno-Karabakh"), this deployment was intended to guarantee the safety of the Armenian population and maintain stability.

Azerbaijan's Offensive & The Collapse of the Status Quo:

The current offensive, which began on September 19th, represents a decisive shift. Azerbaijan launched a military operation claiming it aimed to dismantle illegal Armenian armed groups within Nagorno-Karabakh and ensure compliance with previous agreements. Critically, this action followed months of heightened tensions, including border clashes and the blockade of the Lachin corridor – the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This blockade, which began in December 2022 (and further escalated in April 2023), severely restricted access to essential supplies like food, medicine, and fuel, contributing to a humanitarian crisis within the region.

The speed of Azerbaijan’s advance was startling. Within hours, Azerbaijani forces reportedly took control of several key locations, including the city of Shusha (Shushi in Armenian), strategically vital due to its commanding position overlooking Stepanakert, the regional capital. The BBC report emphasizes that Armenia's ability to intervene has been severely limited by a treaty signed in 1994 which prohibits it from using military force to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. This constraint, coupled with Russia’s seemingly diminished role (more on this below), left the Armenian population vulnerable.

Russia's Diminished Role and International Reactions:

One of the most significant aspects of this crisis is the perceived inaction of Russia. As mentioned above, Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the 2020 ceasefire agreement. However, they have been largely unable to prevent Azerbaijan’s advance. Several factors contribute to this: Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has significantly reduced its capacity and willingness to intervene decisively; Armenia’s growing frustration with Moscow’s perceived lack of support; and a broader shift in regional dynamics. The article notes that Armenia is increasingly looking towards Western powers, particularly the United States and France, for assistance.

International reactions have been mixed. The US State Department has called for de-escalation and dialogue. France, historically an ally of Armenia, has condemned Azerbaijan's actions. Turkey, a strong supporter of Azerbaijan, has voiced its support for Baku’s military operation. The UN Security Council is expected to discuss the situation, but any meaningful action remains uncertain given potential vetoes from Russia or China.

Humanitarian Crisis and Potential Exodus:

The offensive has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis. The blockade preceding the military action had already left the population struggling for basic necessities. Now, with fighting ongoing and Azerbaijani forces gaining control, there are fears of widespread displacement. Reports indicate that many Armenians are attempting to flee Nagorno-Karabakh towards Armenia, overwhelming border crossings and creating a refugee situation. The BBC article highlights the potential for ethnic cleansing if the safety and rights of the Armenian population are not guaranteed.

Looking Ahead: Uncertain Future:

The outcome of this conflict remains highly uncertain. Azerbaijan’s stated goal is to reintegrate Nagorno-Karabakh into its territory under Azerbaijani sovereignty, with guarantees for the rights and security of the Armenian population. However, given the history of mistrust and violence, achieving a lasting peace will be incredibly challenging. The potential dissolution of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh (the official name used by Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh) appears increasingly likely.

Ultimately, the future of Nagorno-Karabakh hinges on several factors: Azerbaijan's willingness to protect Armenian rights; Armenia’s ability to secure international guarantees for its security; and the role – or lack thereof – played by regional powers like Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The current crisis underscores the fragility of peace in the South Caucasus and highlights the urgent need for a sustainable solution that addresses the underlying grievances and protects the human rights of all involved.

This summary aims to capture the key points from the BBC article and provides additional context through links within the piece. It's important to note that the situation is constantly evolving, and further developments are likely in the coming days and weeks.