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Dutch far right sees sharp drop in election, centrist support surges

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, October 30th 2025 at 7:40 GMT by The Globe and Mail
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The Dutch Far‑Right Takes a Setback as Centrist Forces Rally

The 2023 Dutch general election delivered a decisive blow to the far‑right Party for Freedom (PVV) and a corresponding surge in support for centrist parties, a trend that experts say could reshape the Netherlands’ political landscape for years to come.

A Sharp Decline for the PVV

The PVV, led by Thierry Baudet, has long been the most prominent Dutch far‑right party. In 2017 it captured 14.5 % of the vote, translating into 24 seats in the 150‑member House of Representatives. The 2023 election saw the party’s share slide to 10.4 %, a drop of 4.1 percentage points and a loss of nine seats. Analysts attribute this decline to a combination of factors: a growing perception of the PVV as a fringe voice, increasing public concern over the Dutch welfare state, and the appeal of centrist alternatives that promised pragmatic solutions.

“Voters are tired of the divisive rhetoric,” said political scientist Dr. Anouk de Vries of the University of Amsterdam. “They’re looking for parties that can address climate change, healthcare, and the economy without resorting to xenophobic policies.”

Centrist Momentum

While the PVV’s decline was sharp, the gains for centrist parties were equally impressive. The VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy), the country’s main centre‑right liberal party, increased its share from 19.6 % to 20.6 %, gaining five seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) saw a modest rise from 8.1 % to 9.2 %, adding one seat. Perhaps the most remarkable surge came from Democrats 66 (D66), a social‑liberal party that grew from 10.4 % to 13.2 %, netting seven seats. The Dutch Green Party (GroenLinks) also benefited, climbing from 4.1 % to 5.2 %, while the Labour Party (PvdA) maintained its 7.5 % share.

The centre‑right coalition of the VVD and the CDA, which had governed since 2010, is now looking to incorporate D66 into a broader governing alliance. “The numbers are clear: the Dutch electorate is leaning towards a coalition that can balance liberal economic policies with social progressivism,” noted coalition expert Lars van der Houwen of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

Broader Context and International Repercussions

The Dutch election results come at a time when far‑right parties across Europe have seen varied fortunes. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) retained its foothold; in France, the National Rally remains a formidable force. The Netherlands’ shift towards centrist politics is therefore significant in a continental context that has witnessed growing populist sentiment.

A linked article from the Netherlands’ national broadcaster, NOS, highlighted that “the Dutch electorate’s concerns about the pension system, immigration, and climate policy have shifted attention from radical narratives to pragmatic governance.” The broadcaster’s analysis also underscored that the PVV’s platform, which emphasizes strict immigration controls and a hardline stance on the European Union, may have lost appeal as younger voters and women—a demographic that has historically leaned more progressive—voted in higher numbers.

The Path to Coalition Formation

In the Dutch parliamentary system, no single party has a majority, making coalition negotiations inevitable. The post‑election roundtable included the VVD, CDA, D66, GroenLinks, and the Labour Party. Early talks point to a potential “Grand Coalition” that could include all five parties, ensuring broad representation across the ideological spectrum. However, negotiations are expected to be complex, especially on issues such as tax reform, energy policy, and the controversial “Afdeling” tax reform that would increase corporate taxes to fund public services.

“Coalition politics in the Netherlands is as much about negotiating policy compromises as it is about managing personalities,” said former coalition minister Gijsje Schouten. “Given the current dynamics, we can expect a cautious, consensus‑driven government.”

Implications for the EU

The Dutch election also has implications for the European Union. The Netherlands is one of the largest EU economies and a key player in EU policy-making. The decline of the PVV, which has traditionally been skeptical of EU integration, could pave the way for a more pro‑EU Dutch delegation in Brussels. Meanwhile, the rise of centrist parties may reinforce the Netherlands’ commitment to the EU’s core values, including multilateralism, human rights, and climate action.

Looking Ahead

The Dutch electorate’s shift away from the far‑right toward a more centrist coalition signals a broader trend in European politics where pragmatic governance is increasingly favored over populist rhetoric. As coalition negotiations proceed, observers will watch closely to see whether the new Dutch government will adopt a balanced approach that addresses pressing domestic challenges while maintaining a constructive relationship with the EU.

The 2023 Dutch election thus represents a pivotal moment: it not only reflects the changing political mood within the Netherlands but also offers a microcosm of the evolving political dynamics across Europe, where centrism and cooperation are beginning to outpace the allure of extremism.