Bolivia heads to the polls as its right-wing opposition eyes first victory in decades

In a country still healing from the political shock of 2019, Bolivia’s next presidential election is drawing closer, and the nation’s mood is crystallising around a handful of key players and pressing issues. The most recent polling data, released by the country’s Central Electoral Board (CNE) in early September, points to a tight race between incumbent President Luis Arce and the opposition’s front‑runner, María Julia Girón, who heads the “Civic Community” coalition. With the first round scheduled for October 6th and a possible runoff on October 20th, voters are already making their voices heard, and the political climate is as charged as it has been in years.

A Quick Political Back‑Drop

The electoral drama of 2019—when former President Evo Morales was forced out after a disputed election—remains a lingering memory for many Bolivians. Since then, the political landscape has been dominated by the ruling Socialist Party‑United (PSUV), of which President Arce is a senior member. Arce’s term has been characterised by an emphasis on maintaining the “Socialist Alternative” and a focus on social programmes, while also navigating the country’s volatile commodity markets and global economic pressures.

Opposition forces have coalesced around a coalition that includes the Civic Community (CC), the New Republic Party (NRP), and a host of smaller parties. Their candidate, María Julia Girón, a former minister of mining and current leader of the CC, has promised a “new Bolivian politics” that balances economic liberalisation with social protection. Other contenders, such as the indigenous‑led Movement for Socialism (MAS) and the more centrist United for Change (UFC), are still gathering momentum, but their support appears to be comparatively limited in the current polls.

Polls Show a Tight Race

The most recent polling data, compiled by the CNE in collaboration with the national research institute INDE, shows President Arce maintaining a lead of approximately 5‑7 percentage points over Girón. Arce’s advantage appears strongest among rural voters, particularly in the low‑lying valleys of La Paz and Cochabamba, where he has capitalised on his government’s investment in infrastructure and social welfare.

Girón, on the other hand, is drawing significant support from the urban middle‑class and from younger voters, many of whom are disillusioned with the status quo. Her campaign’s focus on anti‑corruption measures, economic diversification, and a more open stance on the mining sector seems to be resonating with this demographic. The polling also indicates a growing appetite for a “third option” among voters who are wary of both extremes, but the data suggests that such voters are currently split between the two front‑ranked candidates.

In addition to the CNE’s figures, independent polling by the ThinkTank Institute of Bolivia (ITB) corroborates the trend, though with slightly higher numbers for Arce. The ITB’s survey highlighted that Arce’s approval rating has plateaued at around 48%, while Girón’s is hovering at 43%. The remaining 9% of respondents either support a lesser‑known candidate or are undecided—a group that could tip the scales in a tightly contested runoff.

Key Issues Driving the Debate

1. Economic Management and the Mining Sector

Bolivia’s economy remains heavily reliant on tin, silver, and lithium—minerals that are critical to the global tech supply chain. The debate over how to harness these resources for national development has been a central point of contention. Arce’s administration has continued to prioritise the expansion of state‑controlled mining contracts, arguing that this will maintain sovereignty over natural resources. In contrast, Girón proposes a more liberalised framework that would invite foreign investment, potentially boosting production and creating jobs but raising concerns about environmental impact and the marginalisation of local communities.

2. Inflation and Currency Stability

Inflation has surged to its highest levels in a decade, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The government’s fiscal policies have been criticised for failing to control price spikes, especially in essential goods. Girón’s platform includes a promise to renegotiate Bolivia’s currency peg to the US dollar and to implement stricter inflation‑control measures, while Arce defends his stewardship of a “stable” currency that has kept the country’s debt at manageable levels.

3. Social Welfare and Indigenous Rights

The social agenda remains a cornerstone of Bolivian politics. Arce has expanded the “Jóvenes con Progreso” (Youth with Progress) scholarship programme, while Girón calls for a deeper commitment to indigenous land rights and a revamp of the public healthcare system to reduce disparities between urban and rural areas.

4. Media Freedom and Digital Disinformation

A new wave of concerns has emerged around the role of social media in shaping public opinion. Several civil‑society groups have highlighted the prevalence of coordinated disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining trust in the electoral process. Both candidates have pledged to tighten regulations around digital platforms, though their approaches differ: Arce supports stricter censorship to curb “hate speech,” while Girón argues for a more open‑access model that protects free expression.

International Observers and the Election’s Credibility

The election is expected to receive extensive scrutiny from international bodies. The Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations Electoral Observation Mission (UN EOM) have both announced plans to deploy observer teams to monitor the electoral conduct, from the registration of voters to the final vote tally. According to the OAS, the presence of these observers is intended to bolster confidence in the process and to deter potential irregularities.

At the same time, Bolivia’s government has faced criticism from several foreign governments over alleged manipulation of campaign finances. The Ministry of Finance has publicly announced that it will publish an audit of campaign expenditures to demonstrate transparency.

What the Future Holds

With the first round on October 6th, the electoral landscape remains dynamic. Arce’s campaign continues to bank on its track record of economic stability, while Girón’s message of change is gaining traction among urban and youth demographics. The margins in the latest polls suggest that a runoff could be inevitable if either candidate fails to cross the 50% threshold in the first round.

The coming weeks will also see the political parties engage in a series of televised debates, a first for Bolivia’s 2024 campaign. These debates, scheduled by the CNE to be aired nationally on all major television channels, are expected to be a key turning point, offering voters a chance to assess the candidates’ competence and policy depth directly.

A Nation on the Edge

Bolivia’s upcoming election is more than a mere contest of personalities; it is a referendum on how the country will navigate the twin challenges of economic revitalisation and social cohesion. As the polls reveal a narrowing gap between the incumbent and the opposition, the stakes have never been higher. Whether the nation will lean toward continuity under President Arce or pivot toward the reformist agenda of María Julia Girón remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the eyes of the world, and of the Bolivian people, are fixed on the ballots of October.

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