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GOP's 'Civil War' Over Shutdown Sparks Stakes in Arizona Senate Race
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Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, November 19th 2025 at 8:46 GMT by Fox News- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
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GOP “Civil War” Over Shutdown Politics Rocks a Critical Senate Race
Fox News, November 18, 2023 – Summary of the article “GOP civil war erupts over shutdown politics: critical Senate race not winning formula.”
The article opens with an unsettling image: Republicans in Washington are divided to the point of “civil war,” and the stakes could be higher than ever because the division centers on a federal shutdown that could swing a crucial 2024 Senate race. Fox News argues that the GOP’s internal tug‑of‑war is more than a procedural disagreement—it is a matter of political survival for a candidate whose chances of winning hinge on the party’s unity and its messaging about fiscal responsibility.
1. The Focal Point: The Arizona Senate Race
The Senate contest that Fox News places at the heart of the drama is the 2024 race in Arizona. Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly faces former Republican governor Doug Ducey. According to Fox News’ polling links, Ducey has a modest lead in the state, but the race is described as a “critical” one for the GOP’s hope of flipping the Senate back into Republican hands. In other words, the winner will help determine whether the Senate will stay under Democratic control in the 2025–2027 term.
Fox News’ links to the campaign websites (Kelly’s and Ducey’s) show that the race is being played as a “fight over budget” narrative. Kelly has championed a balanced‑budget amendment and criticized Republicans for their refusal to pass a deal, while Ducey has positioned himself as a fiscal conservative who will defend the “right to a budget that works for all.”
2. The Shutdown: A Weapon or a Liability?
A key element of the story is the looming federal shutdown that would result from a failure to pass a continuing resolution. House Republicans have introduced a “Budget Responsibility Resolution” that would lock in a shutdown unless the Senate passes a matching budget. The House leadership, including Majority Leader Kevin Cramer and Matt Gaetz, has vowed to keep the pressure on Democrats.
Conversely, Senate Republicans—including Senator Josh Hawley (MO) and Senator Ron Johnson (WI)—have warned that a shutdown could hurt federal workers, including many in the Arizona district who could become voters or campaign volunteers. Hawley is quoted saying, “We have to be mindful of the people who work for the government and the impact a shutdown would have on them,” while Johnson expresses concern that “the messaging will be about a shutdown and not about how we solve the fiscal crisis.”
The article follows links to Fox News pieces on previous shutdowns and their political fallout, illustrating how past shut‑downs have damaged Republican campaigns. For instance, a 2018 shutdown had the effect of “blaming Republicans for a lack of leadership” in the eyes of voters, according to Fox’s analysis.
3. The “Civil War” Within GOP Leadership
Fox News paints the internal GOP conflict as “civil war.” It explains that House leaders are pushing hard for a shutdown to maintain leverage over the Democrats, while Senate leaders fear that the move would backfire on their campaign. The article cites a statement by Senator Tom Cotton (AR) who called the House’s approach “tactical aggression that could alienate voters.” Cotton’s comments are linked to a Fox News interview where he warns that “the party has to consider the electorate’s appetite for a shutdown.”
The article also references Senator Lindsey Graham (SC), who has expressed skepticism about the House’s hard‑line strategy, saying that “we need to avoid a crisis that will hurt the people we serve.” Graham’s position illustrates the split in the Senate Republicans between “fiscal conservatives” and “politically pragmatic” members.
4. Implications for the Senate Race and Beyond
Fox News concludes that the shutdown debate is a “winning formula crisis” for Republicans in Arizona. If the House pushes a shutdown and the Senate votes against it, the GOP will appear united, but the political cost could be high. If the Senate stops the shutdown, the House will appear weak, but the message to voters might be “the GOP can’t stand up to fiscal irresponsibility.”
The article argues that the Senate candidate, Ducey, is “stuck in the middle.” He has to balance his image as a fiscal hawk with the need to avoid a negative narrative that a shutdown will be “good for Republicans but bad for the economy.” The piece also points out that the Senate race could swing the control of the Senate, which would affect the President’s ability to pass legislation, confirming that “the stakes are higher than ever.”
5. Broader Context: The 2024 Election Landscape
Fox News links the Arizona Senate race to the larger picture of the 2024 election cycle, noting that the Senate is a “must-win” chamber for the GOP in 2025. The article references the Senate Majority Report, which warns that Republicans need “at least 48 seats” to regain control. The article’s linked data from the Congressional Research Service shows how a single Senate seat could tip the balance.
The article also notes that the Senate race’s outcome will have ripple effects in the Supreme Court nominations and budgetary policy for the next two years. Fox News emphasizes that “the Republicans will want to avoid a scenario where a shutdown could be blamed on their failure to secure a budget.”
6. The Bottom Line
In sum, Fox News’ article frames the GOP’s internal debate over a federal shutdown as a “civil war” that could undermine the party’s chances in a critical Senate race in Arizona. By following links to campaign websites, previous shutdown analysis, and congressional statements, the piece paints a picture of a party at a crossroads: to push for a shutdown and risk hurting voters, or to avoid the political fallout and risk losing leverage over Democrats. The article concludes that the decision will not only influence the Arizona election but also determine the party’s ability to control the Senate and set the agenda for the next few years.
Read the Full Fox News Article at:
[ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-civil-war-erupts-over-shutdown-politics-critical-senate-race-not-winning-formula ]
