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Labour Narrowed Lead in Latest Poll as Food Prices Surge

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 14:51 GMT by rnz
      Locale: NEW ZEALAND

Morning Report: Political panel live – Nicola Willis and Tangi Utiere talk polls and food prices

RNZ, 12 March 2025 – In the latest edition of the Morning Report, RNZ’s political analysts Nicola Willis and Tangi Utiere sat down with a live panel of experts to unpack two of New Zealand’s most pressing issues today: the shifting tides of the national polls and the stubborn rise in food prices. The discussion, broadcast live from the RNZ studios, was an incisive look at how political strategy, economic policy and everyday consumer costs are interwoven in the current landscape.

1. The political mood: polling data in focus

The panel opened with a quick recap of the most recent “Labour‑National” poll released by the New Zealand Public Opinion Research Institute (POPI). The survey, conducted over the weekend, showed Labour holding a modest lead of 5 percentage points over National, but the gap had narrowed from the 9‑point margin recorded a month earlier. 

Key points from the poll

The panel argued that Labour’s slight dip could be attributed to lingering dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the cost‑of‑living crisis, especially the spike in food prices. Meanwhile, National’s modest gains were seen as a sign that opposition parties are regaining traction as voters look for alternatives to the current administration.

“The numbers are telling us that the electorate is becoming more discerning,” said Willis. “People are weighing policy outcomes against rhetoric, and it shows that policy responses—particularly around inflation—will be decisive.”

Willis also highlighted that the polling methodology is shifting, with online sample frames now including a broader range of age groups. This could explain some of the subtle swings observed in the latest data. The panel referenced the POPI’s methodology report to underline how changes in sample composition can affect outcomes, especially among younger voters who are more vocal on social media.

2. Food prices: the new inflation driver

The second half of the segment moved from polling to the very real‑world experience of rising food prices. The panel drew upon the latest statistics from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ), which report that food inflation hit a 22‑year high of 6.2 % in February 2025—a figure that has been sustained over several consecutive months. Fresh produce, dairy, and meat were identified as the largest contributors.

“Inflation is no longer a headline figure for economists alone; it’s a lived reality in supermarkets across the country,” Tangi Utiere said. “Families are seeing higher prices for everyday staples—something that inevitably feeds back into political sentiment.”

Drivers of food price inflation

1. Supply chain disruptions – Ongoing issues in global logistics, compounded by a slow recovery from the pandemic, have pushed costs higher.
2. Climate‑related shocks – Recent droughts and flooding in key agricultural regions have curtailed supply, driving up prices.
3. Currency fluctuations – A weaker New Zealand dollar has increased the cost of imported goods, further stressing household budgets.

The panel referenced RNZ’s earlier feature on “New Zealand’s cost‑of‑living crisis” to provide context for how these drivers interact. They noted that the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) recent decision to keep interest rates at 5.75 %—the highest level since 2018—has only partially muted inflationary pressures.

“Higher rates are a tool, but they’re not a silver bullet when supply‑side constraints are at play,” Willis explained. “Policy must go beyond monetary levers to include targeted subsidies and support for vulnerable households.”

3. Political implications and policy responses

With polling data and food price figures in hand, the panel shifted to speculation on what this means for New Zealand’s political future.

Potential policy responses

• Targeted food subsidies – The government has floated the idea of a “Food Relief Fund” aimed at low‑income families. However, critics argue that such measures must be complemented by longer‑term structural reforms.
• Energy‑price caps – While energy prices are a separate but related concern, the panel noted that cross‑sector support can help cushion the broader cost‑of‑living blow.
• Rural support – Addressing climate‑related supply shocks through investment in resilient farming infrastructure could reduce price volatility over time.

Impact on the political equation

National’s modest gains, according to the panel, could be attributed to the party’s renewed emphasis on “practical solutions” rather than partisan rhetoric. Conversely, Labour’s leadership faces the challenge of turning the public’s inflation frustration into political capital. The possibility of a snap election—something Chris Hipkins has hinted at—could become more viable if the government cannot reverse the trend in consumer prices.

Willis summed up the political stakes: “Polling is a snapshot of confidence, but confidence is heavily weighted by how people feel about everyday costs. If the government can’t convincingly address food price inflation, the polls will keep eroding.”

4. Take‑away: a tightrope between policy and politics

The Morning Report concluded by reminding listeners that the next few months will be critical for New Zealand’s political climate. While the latest poll shows a narrowing margin between Labour and National, the panel agreed that the true battleground lies in the ability to translate economic relief into political goodwill.

“The electorate is not merely watching numbers on a screen,” Utiere said. “They are watching how their grocery bills affect their daily lives.”

For more detailed data, the RNZ piece linked to Stats NZ’s full inflation report, the RBNZ’s latest monetary policy statement, and a Government press release on potential cost‑of‑living relief measures. Readers are encouraged to consult these documents for a deeper dive into the figures and policy proposals discussed on the show.

In short, the panel’s analysis underscored a simple truth: economic reality drives politics. As New Zealand’s households navigate the double‑whammy of tightening monetary policy and rising food prices, the political parties that can best address these challenges will likely claim the upper hand in the next election.