N※N

India's 2025 Elections to Feature Cash-Gift Campaigns: A Fiscal Gamble

100

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. feature-cash-gift-campaigns-a-fiscal-gamble.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, November 19th 2025 at 3:27 GMT by reuters.com

• 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
• 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source

2025-11-19 194 x 224 / 10975 Bytes

2025-11-19 245 x 206 / 11575 Bytes

2025-11-19 223 x 224 / 20556 Bytes

2025-11-19 224 x 224 / 14608 Bytes

Cash‑Gift Campaigns and the Fiscal Tightrope Ahead of India’s 2025 Elections

In a rapidly turning political landscape, the Indian government and opposition parties are already drafting a new form of electoral playbook: cash giveaways. A Reuters investigation published on 19 November 2025 shows that this practice is not merely a fringe strategy but a central pillar of the campaign toolkit for the parties that will contest the 2025 general election. While such subsidies can rally support, the piece raises stark warnings about the long‑term fiscal consequences of a policy that could inflate the country’s debt and destabilise its macro‑economic fundamentals.

1. The Election Calendar and the Push for “Vote‑Cash”

India’s general election is set to take place between late October and early November 2025, with the voting process spanning 11 days and a projected turnout of more than 60 % of the 1.3 billion registered voters. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already announced a ₹1 crore‑per‑family “Vote‑Cash” scheme that would deliver cash via digital wallets directly to the bank accounts of eligible citizens. The opposition Indian National Congress (INC) is planning a comparable ₹70 lakhs‑per‑family transfer, while smaller regional outfits are also looking at smaller, targeted cash offers.

The campaign is part of a broader trend where political parties in developing economies are using direct subsidies to win over marginalised voters. Reuters notes that “cash giveaways have become the new ‘soul‑food’ for election‑season campaigns, replacing subsidies that were previously limited to a narrow set of welfare schemes.”

The policy is underpinned by a data‑driven approach: the Ministry of Finance’s “Digital India” division has mapped 200 million households that could be reached through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) system. According to the article’s sources, the 2025 “Vote‑Cash” program would cost an estimated ₹5.5 trillion, or roughly 1.5 % of India’s projected 2025 GDP.

2. The Fiscal Risks Highlighted by Economists

While the policy promises a quick boost in turnout and a fresh image for the ruling party, several economists argue that the cost may be too steep. The article cites a paper by Dr. Arun Gupta of the Delhi School of Economics that warns the scheme could raise the fiscal deficit by 3–4 percentage points above the 2024 baseline. A higher deficit could prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary policy, raising interest rates, which would dampen private investment and consumption in a country still in the throes of a recovery from the COVID‑19 slump.

“The cash‑giveaway approach could be a temporary stimulus, but it risks creating a fiscal “sinking fund” that may eventually need to be financed through higher debt or tax hikes,” says Gupta. “If the government fails to offset this with corresponding cuts elsewhere, we could see a debt‑to‑GDP ratio that climbs well above 80 %.”

A second source—Professor Maya Sethi of the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad—adds that the program may also distort future spending patterns. “Once voters expect direct cash transfers, it becomes harder to roll out more targeted welfare measures, and the public may resist future fiscal tightening.” She points to the “welfare fatigue” phenomenon seen in Brazil, where large cash‑transfer programmes led to political backlash when subsequent cuts were announced.

3. How the Cash Transfer Works

The “Vote‑Cash” program is designed to reach households via the Digital Locker and the Aadhaar UID system. On election day, each qualifying household will receive a one‑off payment directly into their bank account. The Ministry’s official explanation emphasises that the cash is not a “vote‑buying” tactic but a “direct incentive to participate in the democratic process.”

The government’s press release highlighted that the cash will be disbursed through a partnership with Paytm and PhonePe, two leading UPI‑based payment apps. “We will be leveraging the existing digital infrastructure to minimise transaction costs,” the release said. “The entire process from verification to disbursement will take less than 48 hours.”

The article notes that the scheme is being rolled out with a “pilot” phase in 20 districts across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the BJP has already recorded a 7 percentage‑point increase in voter turnout in 2024. The pilot’s data will inform whether the cash transfer will be scaled up nationwide.

4. Political Narrative and the Voter Response

In the words of BJP leader Amitabh Singh, “The electorate is tired of long‑term promises that never materialise. Direct cash transfers show we are ready to act now.” In contrast, opposition leaders argue that the policy is a cynical attempt to trade democratic participation for political favour. “When the state hands out money to win votes, it erodes the very democratic values we are supposed to safeguard,” says Congress spokesperson Meera Joshi.

The article points out that the public reaction is mixed. While many voters welcome immediate financial relief, a sizable portion of the electorate has expressed concerns over the sustainability of the scheme. “I don’t want to get a one‑off payment and then see taxes go up next year,” says a 34‑year‑old farmer from Rajasthan, highlighting fears of a future tax hike.

5. Broader Policy Context

The cash‑giveaway trend must be understood against the backdrop of India’s macro‑economic environment. The World Bank’s 2024 forecast places India’s fiscal deficit at 4.5 % of GDP, already at the upper limit of the 3–4 % range recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The debt‑to‑GDP ratio stands at 78 %, a steep rise from 69 % in 2021. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has repeatedly warned that any further fiscal stimulus could derail the country’s growth trajectory.

Reuters also follows the link to a parallel story about the “Cash‑Transfer Debate in Developing Democracies,” which illustrates how other emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Kenya, have faced similar fiscal dilemmas after launching nationwide cash‑transfer schemes in the run‑up to elections.

6. The Take‑away

The Reuters piece concludes that the “Vote‑Cash” policy is a double‑edged sword. On one side, it can help the incumbent party boost its electoral prospects in a tightly contested race; on the other, it risks pushing India onto a fiscal trajectory that may require higher taxes or a slowdown in growth to remain sustainable. The article ends with a cautionary note: “While the promise of immediate relief is compelling, policymakers must weigh it against the long‑term stability of the country’s finances.”

In a country where elections can change the political map in a single day, the 2025 cash‑giveaway gamble may well determine not just who wins the polls, but how India finances its future.