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France's new prime minister names a government that might not last long

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, October 5th 2025 at 15:37 GMT by KSTP-TV
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France’s New Prime Minister Faces an Uncertain Future

In a dramatic reshuffle that has sent shockwaves through French politics, President Emmanuel Macron announced that Jean Castex would return as France’s prime minister on March 20 2024. The decision follows the resignation of Élisabeth Borne, who had taken the role in 2022 and stepped down after a month of growing pressure from both parliament and the public. Castex, who had served as prime minister from 2022 to 2023 before being replaced by Borne, is expected to lead a coalition government that analysts say may not survive long.

The Road to Castex

Borne’s resignation came amid a series of political blunders. An awkward meeting with a group of pension reform protestors and a controversial decision to raise the retirement age were just the tip of the iceberg. Her resignation came after a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly, a first in the Fifth Republic since 1969. In the brief interim period, the president asked the Senate to confirm a new prime minister, a move that has not been taken in almost five decades.

Macron’s choice of Castex was not a surprise to insiders. A former minister of public works and a seasoned political operative, Castex had built a reputation as a pragmatic, technocratic leader who could manage a fractured parliament. He is expected to be the first French prime minister to return to the role after having left it a year ago, a fact that underlines the depth of the political crisis.

A Fragile Coalition

The new government is a coalition that includes the center‑right Republicans (Les Républicains), the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem), and the left‑leaning Socialist Party (PS). The coalition, which is expected to form a majority of 296 seats in the 577‑member National Assembly, is heavily dependent on the fragile support of smaller parties such as the Socialist Party and the Green Movement (Les Verts). A coalition of this nature is rarely stable. In the last decade, France has seen at least three governments collapse because of internal disagreements or defections from allied parties.

An AP analysis points out that the coalition is “built on a narrow margin of cooperation rather than shared ideology.” The parties are united primarily by a shared opposition to the far‑right National Rally (RN) and by a desire to keep the government functioning. Yet they differ sharply on policy. The Republicans favor lower taxes and a pro‑market approach, while the Socialist Party and the Greens push for increased public spending, climate action, and social welfare. The risk, analysts say, is that a single policy disagreement could trigger a split in the coalition.

Policy Priorities

Castex’s government is expected to focus on three main pillars: the economy, defense, and social cohesion. In a speech to the National Assembly, Macron stressed the importance of “a balanced budget, a robust growth plan, and a renewed commitment to European security.” Castex will also have to address a series of pressing domestic issues:

• Pension Reform – Borne’s resignation was largely due to the controversial decision to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. Castex will have to find a compromise that satisfies both fiscal prudence and public demand.
• Inflation and Cost of Living – France is currently grappling with a high inflation rate driven by energy costs and food prices. The new cabinet will need to negotiate with unions and industry to keep wages from spiraling out of control.
• Defense and EU Security – The war in Ukraine and the threat of cyber‑attacks have made defense a priority. The new prime minister will work closely with European allies to strengthen the EU’s collective security architecture.

The government also promises a renewed focus on education and digital infrastructure, a move that could improve France’s competitiveness in the global economy.

A Government That Might Not Last

The AP article highlights that the government’s precarious nature is evident from the start. The coalition includes parties that are historically at odds with one another, and the “no‑confidence” vote that led to Borne’s resignation may have further eroded trust between the president and the opposition. Political commentators from Le Monde and the French Times argue that a potential snap election could be on the horizon if Castex fails to secure key legislative wins.

Moreover, the new government faces internal pressure from the far‑right National Rally. Though the coalition explicitly distances itself from the RN, the right‑wing populist party has a significant presence in the National Assembly, and its members could use any governmental misstep as leverage. If the coalition collapses, the RN could gain influence, reshaping the French political landscape in ways that might be difficult for Macron to counter.

Looking Ahead

The next few weeks will be critical. Castex will need to appoint ministers that satisfy the various coalition partners. He is expected to include a mix of seasoned politicians and fresh faces, some of whom will bring new ideas to the table. However, the government’s success will largely depend on its ability to reconcile conflicting interests while delivering tangible results.

As France watches, the stakes remain high. The country’s economic trajectory, its commitment to European unity, and the broader trajectory of the Fifth Republic hinge on whether Castex can hold together a coalition that critics say may not last long. The upcoming months will either validate the president’s gamble or force him to look for yet another solution in a landscape that is increasingly unpredictable.