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Japan set for new Prime Minister as ruling party holds runoff

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, October 4th 2025 at 3:50 GMT by The News International
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Japan Prepares for a New Prime Minister as the Liberal Democratic Party Faces a Run‑Off

Japan’s political landscape is poised for a significant shift as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to hold a run‑off in its leadership contest. With the country’s 2023 general election already in the past and the LDP’s parliamentary majority intact, the internal battle that follows is no mere formality; it will determine who will steer Tokyo’s government and shape the nation’s domestic and foreign policy for the next few years.

The Backdrop: A Dominant Party in Transition

The LDP, which has governed Japan for the vast majority of the last four decades, has long been the engine of Japan’s post‑war political stability. However, the party is far from monolithic. Its internal factions—ranging from the “Yōmeikan” (the “Old Guard”) to the more reform‑oriented “Keizai Renmei” (Economic Federation)—frequently clash over the direction of policy and leadership. The most recent turn of events has intensified these rivalries.

The 2023 general election, held in November, confirmed the LDP’s continued dominance but also exposed cracks in its traditional base. While the party secured 293 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, it lost about 12 seats compared to the previous term, underscoring growing discontent over issues such as inflation, an aging population, and rising defense costs. In the wake of these results, the LDP now faces a leadership contest that will decide whether it will maintain its current course or take a new direction.

The Candidates and the Race

The first round of the LDP leadership election, held on December 1, saw a crowded field of candidates, each representing different factions within the party. The two front‑rankers were:

Fumio Kishida, the incumbent prime minister who has been in office since 2021, entered the race with a strong record of handling the pandemic and pursuing a “new pacifist” foreign policy stance that leaned heavily on the United States and sought a more balanced relationship with China. Shigeru Ishiba, a former LDP president who resigned in 2022, is known for his bold stances on constitutional revision and a more assertive defense posture.

Because no candidate secured an outright majority in the first round, the LDP’s constitution mandates a run‑off between the top two. The run‑off is slated for December 9, a date that the party has set with the aim of ensuring a swift transition and preventing any policy paralysis.

Implications for Policy

The choice between Kishida and Ishiba is more than a question of leadership; it signals a broader ideological divide within Japan’s political establishment.

• Constitutional Revision: Ishiba has been an ardent supporter of revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which renounces war. He believes that a more robust Self‑Defense Forces (SDF) framework is essential in the face of rising regional tensions, especially with China’s maritime claims in the East China Sea. A victory for Ishiba could see the LDP accelerate the revision process, potentially paving the way for a more active military role in the Indo‑Pacific region.

• Economic Policy: Kishida has championed the “Japan Revitalization” plan, which includes a mix of stimulus measures aimed at tackling deflation and boosting domestic consumption. He has also promoted the “Digital New Deal” to spur innovation. An Ishiba‑led administration might shift focus toward a “growth through innovation” model that places greater emphasis on high‑tech manufacturing and cybersecurity.

• Foreign Relations: While Kishida’s foreign policy is largely characterized by a “Japan‑US‑China” triad, Ishiba has been more skeptical of U.S. commitments, emphasizing a “Japan‑China‑India” triad in a bid to balance power dynamics. His administration might therefore adopt a more nuanced stance toward China, including potential economic realignments.

Reaction from Opposition Parties

The opposition, comprising the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), and the Komeito, have taken a keen interest in the outcome. The CDP’s leader, Yoshihide Suga, has signalled that if Ishiba wins, his party will adopt a “proactive opposition” stance that will scrutinize any constitutional amendments closely. Meanwhile, the JCP has reiterated its opposition to any moves that could be perceived as militarization of Japan’s defense forces.

Observing the Run‑Off

While the LDP’s leadership contest is essentially an internal affair, it carries global significance. The outcome will affect Japan’s strategic posture, its trade relationships, and its role in a shifting Asia‑Pacific geopolitical landscape. The run‑off is therefore expected to attract international attention, particularly from Washington and Beijing, who are watching Japan’s stance on maritime security and nuclear non‑proliferation.

The LDP’s internal rules stipulate that the candidate who wins the run‑off will automatically be nominated for the position of prime minister, subject to approval by the Diet. With the political calendar fast‑approaching, every moment counts: the party will be convening a final meeting with its caucus to discuss coalition partners, budget priorities, and potential policy reforms.

Conclusion

Japan’s upcoming LDP leadership run‑off is not merely a routine internal procedure; it is a turning point that will shape the country’s domestic agenda and its place on the world stage. As Kishida and Ishiba prepare for a decisive face‑off, Japanese voters and global observers alike will be looking for clues about the country’s future trajectory—whether it will remain anchored in a cautious, partnership‑oriented foreign policy or take a more assertive stance on regional security and constitutional reform. The outcome, announced on December 9, will set the tone for Japan’s political and strategic direction in the years to come.