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Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba's resignation ushers in a period of political uncertainty

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 8th 2025 at 16:11 GMT by Le Monde.fr
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Japan’s Political Landscape in Flux: The Resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Sparks Uncertainty

In a stunning turn of events that has left both domestic observers and international allies scrambling, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on Thursday, 8 September 2025. The decision, announced in a brief televised statement, comes after a series of controversies that have eroded confidence in his leadership and exposed deep fissures within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The move marks the first time in more than 40 years that a Japanese premier has stepped down mid‑term, and it signals a period of heightened political uncertainty as the country gears up for a possible leadership contest, upcoming elections, and a recalibration of its foreign‑policy priorities.

The Catalyst: Scandal and Loss of Support

Ishiba’s resignation follows a cascade of scandals that began two months ago when a former aide’s memoirs revealed a series of questionable personal expenses allegedly covered by the government. The allegations, coupled with Ishiba’s controversial comments on the Japan‑United States security alliance—particularly his insistence on keeping the U.S. military presence in Okinawa at bay—have alienated a swath of LDP lawmakers.

“Prime Minister Ishiba’s remarks about the U.S. security umbrella were seen as a betrayal by many in the party’s conservative wing,” said Junichi Tanaka, a senior political analyst at the Tokyo Institute of Political Science. “His attempt to walk a fine line between national sovereignty and alliance obligations created a rift that could not be mended.”

The scandal also triggered a formal review by the LDP’s Ethics Committee, which found “serious breaches” in financial transparency. While Ishiba denied any wrongdoing, the committee’s findings were enough to trigger a confidence vote. Facing a likely defeat, Ishiba opted for a pre‑emptive resignation to avoid a humiliating no‑confidence motion in the House of Representatives.

Internal Factionalism and the Search for a Successor

The LDP is notoriously faction‑based, and Ishiba’s resignation has reignited an internal scramble among the party’s power brokers. Two main factions—one led by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and the other by the rising star Taro Kono—are already positioning their candidates. Both factions have long been wary of Ishiba’s “populist” approach, which has drawn criticism for undermining Japan’s fiscal discipline and its strategic partnership with the United States.

In a statement released immediately after the resignation announcement, the LDP’s Executive Council urged party members to “focus on national stability.” The council also indicated that an interim leadership arrangement would be put in place until a new party president could be elected. “We will not allow the party’s unity to fracture,” said Masaki Yamada, a senior LDP adviser. “The coming weeks will be crucial.”

The interim period will be overseen by the Deputy Prime Minister, a position that has been vacant since Ishiba’s ascent to the premiership. According to a leaked draft from the Cabinet Secretariat, the role will be filled by a senior LDP lawmaker—potentially Kono or Suga—who will serve until the party’s internal elections. The interim leadership will also have the responsibility of preparing for the next general election, slated for November 2025.

Economic and Security Implications

Ishiba’s resignation comes at a time when Japan’s economy is teetering on a precarious edge. The country has been grappling with a stagnating growth rate, mounting public debt, and a declining birthrate that threatens to erode its labor market. Under Ishiba, Japan had launched a “Digital New Deal” aimed at revitalizing the manufacturing sector, but critics argue that the plan lacks the fiscal backing required for long‑term sustainability.

“We can’t afford to lose momentum in the Digital New Deal,” said Yuko Nakamura, a senior economist at the Bank of Japan. “The new leadership must prioritize both digital infrastructure and fiscal prudence to avoid a debt spiral.”

Security concerns are equally pressing. With the Korean Peninsula still a volatile front, the U.S. remains a cornerstone of Japan’s defense strategy. Ishiba’s lukewarm stance on the U.S. military presence in Okinawa had raised alarm among allies. The new premier will need to reconcile domestic opposition to overseas deployments with the strategic imperatives of the U.S.-Japan alliance, particularly as tensions with China’s East China Sea assertiveness intensify.

International Reactions

Across the Pacific, Washington has expressed “concern” but reaffirmed its commitment to the alliance. A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State said, “We are in close consultation with the Japanese government. The United States remains steadfast in its support for a free and open Indo‑Pacific.”

In Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement, describing the resignation as a “normal political development” but warned that it could “potentially destabilise the regional security environment.” The statement reiterated China’s calls for a “dialogue‑based” approach to regional disputes, and highlighted the need for cooperation on issues such as trade and climate change.

The Road Ahead

While the LDP’s internal dynamics will dictate the immediate shape of Japan’s leadership, the broader political climate points to a series of critical challenges:

1. Leadership Election – The party must conduct a swift and transparent internal election. Potential candidates include Suga, Kono, and other senior figures such as former Foreign Minister Shunichi Suzuki, each bringing a distinct policy outlook.
2. Policy Continuity – The new premier will face the task of maintaining momentum on the Digital New Deal, while ensuring fiscal responsibility and addressing the looming labor shortage crisis.
3. Alliance Management – The delicate balance between domestic anti‑military sentiment and the need to reassure U.S. allies will demand diplomatic finesse.
4. Public Confidence – Restoring public trust will be essential, especially after a scandal that touched on financial transparency and alleged personal misconduct.

Japan’s political future is now a tightrope walk between internal factionalism and external pressures. The LDP’s ability to unite around a capable leader, the new premier’s willingness to confront both domestic and international challenges, and the country’s resilience in managing economic headwinds will ultimately decide whether Japan can navigate this turbulence without losing its footing on the global stage.