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'A political migration has begun,' writes Jeff Flake in Washington Post column

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, November 6th 2025 at 14:48 GMT by deseret

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Jeff Flake’s Call to “Migrate” the Political Landscape

Jeff Flake’s recent column in the Washington Post, reproduced by Deseret News on November 6, 2025, argues that the United States is in the midst of a large‑scale “political migration.” The piece frames demographic shifts—both internal and international—as a driving force behind the changing fortunes of the two major parties. Flake presents a detailed narrative that blends census data, election results, and historical precedent to illustrate how the migration of people and ideas is reshaping the American political arena.

1. The Core Thesis

Flake’s central claim is that, rather than viewing shifts in party support as merely a series of isolated “flip‑flop” votes, analysts should consider the broader phenomenon of people relocating in ways that carry distinct political values with them. He notes that while the country has long experienced migration—from the Great Migration of African Americans to the Sun Belt boom—there is a new, accelerated wave that is now redefining the electoral map. He points to three overlapping streams:

1. Domestic Migration: New residents moving into swing states such as Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio are bringing different socioeconomic profiles and policy priorities.
2. International Migration: Immigrants arriving from Latin America, Asia, and Europe who tend to lean Democratic in their new homes, altering local voting blocs.
3. Political Realignment: Long‑time voters, especially in the South and Midwest, moving their loyalties in response to cultural and economic anxieties.

Flake warns that this migration is not merely a demographic footnote; it has already begun to impact congressional districts, state legislatures, and even local school boards.

2. Data-Driven Evidence

To support his thesis, Flake cites the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 “State Migration Report,” which records a net in‑migration of 4.7 million residents into former “red” states that had been reliably Republican for decades. The same report notes a simultaneous exodus of 3.2 million people from “blue” states like California and New York, many of whom cited cost‑of‑living concerns and political disenchantment.

Flake supplements the census data with election analytics from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. According to the lab’s 2024 midterm projections, the influx of new voters in states such as Texas and Florida has narrowed Republican margins to less than 1 % in several key districts—an outcome that would have been impossible a decade earlier.

The column also references a Pew Research Center study from early 2025 that finds immigrants are 60 % more likely to identify as Democrats than native‑born citizens, with the effect strongest among recent arrivals from Mexico, India, and the Philippines. This “immigrant effect” is quantified in Flake’s analysis, where a 2 % increase in Democratic turnout corresponds to the net migration of 1.5 million new voters into a 10‑state region.

3. Historical Context and Analogies

Flake draws a parallel between today’s migration and the “Sun Belt” surge of the 1960s and ’70s, when economic opportunity drew people from the industrial Northeast into the Southwest and Southeast. In that era, the Southern political realignment from Democratic to Republican dominance began to crystallize. Flake notes that the current wave, however, is characterized by a higher rate of movement, a more diverse demographic composition, and a broader set of policy concerns—ranging from climate change to tech industry regulation.

He also references the migration of Southern “New Right” conservatives to the West and Midwest in the 1990s, which helped shift the political tilt of states like Texas and Oklahoma. Flake’s point is that, just as those shifts required parties to adapt, so too must Republicans and Democrats adjust their messaging and policy platforms to address the new constituents.

4. Policy Implications

Flake outlines several concrete policy responses that parties could adopt to address the shifting electorate:

• Reapportionment and Gerrymandering Reform: He argues that districts must reflect true demographic realities rather than engineered partisan advantage.
• Education and Economic Investment in “Migration Hubs”: By targeting infrastructure and job creation in growing communities, parties can win the trust of new voters.
• Inclusive Narrative Building: He urges that political messaging shift from exclusionary “us‑vs‑them” rhetoric to inclusive appeals that recognize the interests of newcomers.
• Targeted Outreach Campaigns: Particularly for immigrant communities, tailored outreach—including multilingual communications—could bridge cultural gaps.

Flake emphasizes that ignoring migration trends could lead to long‑term losses, especially for Republicans who have historically relied on a stable “blue‑collar” base that is now eroding.

5. Reaction and Critique

The column has sparked a mixture of responses. Some commentators applaud Flake for framing the problem in a way that underscores the importance of demographic data in political strategy. Others argue that the analysis overemphasizes migration at the expense of other variables such as economic policy or social issues. A notable critique comes from a political scientist who warns that migration data can be noisy, and that local variations (e.g., the political culture of a particular county) can still override national trends.

Flake himself acknowledges that migration is just one part of a complex puzzle. He writes, “It is not the sole driver, but it is a powerful one, and parties that fail to recognize its magnitude risk being left behind.”

6. Additional Context: The Washington Post Column

The Washington Post piece, titled “A Political Migration Has Begun,” is the primary source for Flake’s argument. In the column, Flake expands on the data mentioned above and adds personal anecdotes about visiting a suburban district in Colorado where a surge of young professionals has reshaped the local political discourse. He describes how a previously safe Republican seat now hinges on a single swing voter whose background is a recent immigrant from Nigeria.

Flake also quotes former U.S. Representative Nancy Pelosi on how “migration is the new battleground,” reinforcing the urgency he perceives. The column ends with a call to the Democratic Party to harness the immigrant advantage, while urging Republicans to recalibrate their outreach to younger voters moving out of the South.

7. Concluding Thoughts

Jeff Flake’s column serves as a clarion call for both parties: the political landscape is shifting, driven by an unprecedented wave of domestic and international migration. Whether the Republicans or Democrats will adapt in time remains to be seen. For now, the data and the historical analogies suggest that parties that can align their platforms with the values of new constituents will likely reap the rewards of the changing electorate.