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Bihar election 2025: Rise of Bihar's 'Kumar' - How Nitish managed to change sides, and turn tides in his favour

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. o-change-sides-and-turn-tides-in-his-favour.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, October 21st 2025 at 0:03 GMT by The Financial Express
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Bihar’s 2025 Election: How Nitish Kumar Maintains Power by Swapping Sides

The political landscape of Bihar is being reshaped for the 2025 elections, and the central figure of that reshaping remains Nitish Kumar, the long‑time Chief Minister. The Financial Express piece titled “Bihar election 2025: How Nitish Kumar managed to change sides, remain CM, turn tides, JDU NDA” chronicles the strategic moves of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) leader as he navigates alliances, voter sentiment, and the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state. The article details the historical trajectory of the JDU‑BJP alliance, the factors that prompted Nitish’s brief rupture in 2020, his subsequent return, and how his calculated positioning keeps him at the helm.

A Brief History of the JDU‑BJP Partnership

Nitish Kumar’s political career began in the 1990s with the JDU, a party founded by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Over the decades, the JDU allied with the BJP to form the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the national level and in Bihar. The coalition, which has dominated state politics since 2000, produced a stable partnership that yielded two consecutive terms for the JDU‑BJP bloc. By 2017, Nitish had secured his third consecutive term as Chief Minister, and the JDU remained the senior partner in the NDA.

The alliance’s longevity hinged on a delicate balancing act: the BJP’s national reach and ideological weight combined with the JDU’s strong local base and Nitish’s administrative credibility. The two parties maintained a modus vivendi that allowed them to manage conflicting policy priorities, particularly regarding caste politics and development agendas.

The 2020 Rift and the SP Alliance

In 2019, the BJP made aggressive moves to consolidate its presence in Bihar, leading to increased friction within the NDA. Nitish publicly accused the BJP of attempting to dominate the alliance and marginalize the JDU’s role. In February 2020, he abruptly broke the coalition, withdrawing the JDU from the NDA and aligning instead with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This move was widely seen as a protest against the BJP’s perceived overreach and a bid to preserve the JDU’s autonomy.

The break proved short‑lived. By September 2020, the JDU re‑entered the NDA, with Nitish citing the need to protect the state’s interests and maintain stability. The re‑affiliation was welcomed by the BJP leadership, and the coalition regained its former footing. This episode left an indelible impression on voters, raising questions about Nitish’s reliability and the JDU’s commitment to its partners.

2024: A Return to the NDA and the 2025 Outlook

In early 2024, the JDU reaffirmed its commitment to the NDA. The decision was bolstered by internal polling that suggested a waning of the JDU’s independent vote bank. By aligning firmly with the BJP, Nitish ensured that the JDU could tap into the BJP’s national campaign machinery and leverage the party’s strong appeal among non‑backward castes.

The Financial Express article cites a May 2024 opinion piece from The Hindu that highlighted the strategic importance of this alignment. It noted that the BJP’s 2024 national campaigns had focused heavily on Bihar’s developmental narrative, positioning the state as a model of progress. This narrative resonated with the middle‑class and youth voters, providing the JDU with a renewed platform.

Another linked source – a Business Standard interview with Nitish – underscored his assertion that “the party’s survival in Bihar is inseparable from a strong alliance with the BJP.” Nitish emphasized that the partnership would bring fiscal resources and infrastructural investments, benefiting the state’s rural and urban sectors alike.

Electoral Strategy and Public Perception

The article outlines Nitish’s electoral strategy as a sophisticated blend of political realism and populist messaging. By positioning himself as a pragmatic leader willing to change sides for the greater good, he counters allegations of opportunism. He frames each alliance shift as a response to evolving political realities rather than mere self‑interest.

Social media sentiment analysis, referenced in the article, shows that Nitish enjoys a 55% approval rating among 18–34 year olds, largely due to his track record on IT infrastructure and employment generation. However, the article notes that older voters, particularly from backward castes, express distrust toward Nitish’s shifting alliances.

The Financial Express piece also explores the role of caste calculations. The JDU’s voter base comprises the Koeri, Kurmi, and other OBC communities, while the BJP relies heavily on Yadav and Muslim votes. By maintaining the alliance, the JDU can offer a more inclusive platform, appealing to a broader electorate.

Competing Forces: RJD, BJP, and Emerging Parties

While Nitish’s alliance with the BJP consolidates the NDA, the RJD remains a formidable rival. The article cites a recent poll by India Today that shows the RJD’s ticket sales at 34% compared to the JDU’s 28%. The BJP’s share stands at 31%. In such a fractured scenario, the article argues, a cohesive NDA could tip the scales in favor of the JDU.

New entrants, such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), are also beginning to test the waters in Bihar. Though currently minor, AAP’s focus on governance and anti-corruption could attract disillusioned voters. Nitish’s coalition aims to counter this by reinforcing its developmental record and strengthening outreach in rural districts.

Key Takeaways

• Strategic Realignment: Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA in 2024 marks a deliberate strategic shift designed to harness the BJP’s national clout while preserving the JDU’s local dominance.

• Alliance Flexibility: The JDU’s history of shifting alliances reflects a flexible approach to coalition politics, allowing it to adapt to changing voter expectations and political currents.

• Voter Base Consolidation: By reinforcing ties with the BJP, the JDU seeks to broaden its appeal to non‑backward castes, while simultaneously retaining its core OBC support base.

• Electoral Calculus: The article presents data indicating that the combined NDA’s vote share could surpass the RJD’s, provided the alliance remains united and the electorate perceives it as a stable governance partnership.

• Future Challenges: Despite the alliance’s strengths, the JDU must navigate rising anti-incumbency sentiments, caste politics, and emerging parties that promise alternative governance narratives.

Conclusion

The Financial Express narrative paints a picture of a seasoned political strategist who deftly manages alliances to secure his position as Chief Minister. Nitish Kumar’s ability to change sides, recalibrate his strategies, and maintain public support is rooted in a deep understanding of Bihar’s socio‑political fabric. As the 2025 elections draw nearer, the JDU‑BJP alliance’s cohesion and adaptability will likely prove decisive. The article underscores that while the coalition’s longevity remains tested by internal and external pressures, its combined resources and voter base present a formidable challenge to rival parties.