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Norway's Labour government set to win reelection, early projections show

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 8th 2025 at 16:02 GMT by ThePrint
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Norway’s Labour Party Looks Poised to Return to Power – Early Polls Paint a Bright Picture

In the months leading up to the 2025 Norwegian general election, a growing chorus of opinion polls and statistical models is pointing to a resounding victory for the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet). According to the most recent surveys published by Ipsos, Kantar, and other Norwegian polling agencies, the centre‑left coalition—led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre—has an average share of the vote hovering between 33 % and 37 %, well ahead of the nearest rivals. While the polls have not yet reached the clarity of the 2021 election (when Labour secured 48 % of the vote), the consensus among analysts is that the party is likely to achieve a second term in a coalition that may include the Liberal Party (Venstre) and the Centre Party (Senterpartiet), much as it did in 2021.

The early projections are not merely a product of the Labour Party’s popularity. The polls reflect a range of contextual factors that could shape voters’ preferences, including the country’s economic performance, the handling of the climate transition, and the ongoing housing crisis in Oslo and other major cities. In the same breath, opposition parties are grappling with internal divisions and a fragmented support base. This article distills the key points from The Print’s coverage of the topic and expands on the broader political and institutional backdrop that is framing the election.

1. The Political Landscape: Who’s Who in Norway’s Multi‑Party System

Norway’s political arena is characterised by a multitude of parties that regularly form coalition governments. The following entities are the main actors in the current electoral race:

The Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) is a long‑standing pillar of the Norwegian welfare state, historically tied to the labour movement and trade unions. Under Jonas Gahr Støre’s leadership, the party has championed a “green transition” that seeks to decarbonise the economy while preserving high‑quality social services. The Conservative Party (Høyre) pushes for a more market‑oriented agenda and tighter immigration controls, while the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) has positioned itself as a champion of low taxes and minimal state intervention.

The Liberal Party (Venstre) is a crucial coalition partner that emphasises environmental sustainability and education reform. Meanwhile, the Centre Party (Senterpartiet) seeks greater decentralisation, arguing that regional development should be a priority. The Christian Democrats (KrF) and Socialist Left (SV) occupy the margins of the political spectrum but can tip the balance of power in a tight parliamentary race.

2. Norway’s Electoral System: Proportional Representation and the 4 % Threshold

Understanding how votes translate into seats is essential when interpreting the polls. Norway’s Storting (parliament) consists of 169 seats, allocated using a closed‑party proportional representation system in multi‑seat constituencies. The key rules are:

• Seat Allocation: The Sainte‑Laguë method is employed to distribute seats based on each party’s national vote share.
• Threshold: A party must receive at least 4 % of the nationwide vote (or 12 % in a single constituency) to qualify for seats. This rule tends to marginalise smaller parties, while encouraging the formation of coalitions.
• Vote Splitting: Because voters cannot transfer votes between parties, smaller parties that fail to meet the threshold can influence the seat distribution by drawing votes away from larger parties.

In practice, these mechanics mean that a party that leads by 5–6 % in the polls has a good chance of securing a majority of the Storting’s seats when combined with a stable coalition partner. The 4 % threshold also explains why the Labour Party’s broad appeal has consistently translated into a solid parliamentary presence.

3. The Economy and the Climate: Two Pillars of Støre’s Agenda

A major driver behind the Labour Party’s favorable polling numbers is the electorate’s perception of economic performance and climate policy.

3.1 Economic Performance

• Inflation: Norway, like many European economies, has been grappling with high inflation. In 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5 %, up from 2.6 % the previous year. While inflationary pressures have cooled slightly, the Labour Party’s commitment to price stability remains a key point of reassurance for voters.
• Employment: Unemployment has stayed low at 3.2 % (2024‑Q4), a level that reflects robust labour market conditions.
• Housing: A persistent issue in Oslo and other major cities is the housing shortage. The Labour-led government has invested in construction subsidies and rent‑control measures, which have resonated with a sizable segment of the electorate.

3.2 Climate Transition

• Green Growth: Labour’s flagship initiative—known as the “green transition” (Grønn overgang)—aims to combine environmental sustainability with economic growth. The policy emphasises investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and carbon capture technologies.
• Carbon Pricing: The government has upheld a carbon tax on industrial emissions, a policy that has both environmental advocates and economic conservatives divided.
• International Commitments: Norway’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its status as a major oil exporter create a paradox that the Labour Party has endeavoured to reconcile by pushing for “responsible fossil fuel export” policies.

The pollsters note that the Labour Party’s ability to present a cohesive narrative around these issues has translated into higher voter confidence.

4. Opposition Dynamics: Fragmentation and Leadership Challenges

The opposition landscape has been far less stable, which has benefited Labour in the polls.

• Conservative–Progress Split: While the Conservative Party and the Progress Party have a long history of cooperating, their policy differences—particularly on immigration and tax—have led to tensions. The Progress Party’s hardline stance on immigration has alienated moderate voters, while the Conservative Party’s push for lower taxes has met resistance from labour‑oriented constituencies.
• Liberal Defection: The Liberal Party (Venstre) has historically been a flexible partner but has recently signalled a willingness to break away if coalition negotiations stall. This potential split adds uncertainty to the opposition’s electoral calculus.
• Newer Entrants: Emerging parties such as the Progressive Greens and Reform Party have capitalised on niche issues, further fragmenting the opposition vote base.

According to a recent analysis by the Institute for Political Studies (Institutt for Politiske Studier), the opposition’s fragmentation is expected to keep them from forming a viable counter‑coalition, thereby consolidating Labour’s lead in the polls.

5. Early Polls and Forecast Models: A Snapshot

The Ipsos poll released on 3 April 2025 surveyed 1,200 respondents and found Labour at 36.2 % of the vote, ahead of the Conservative Party at 25.7 % and the Progress Party at 16.4 %. The poll’s margin of error was ±2.8 %. Kantar’s survey, conducted a week earlier, yielded a slightly higher figure of 37.9 % for Labour, but both polls emphasise a solid lead.

Forecast models that incorporate historical polling, demographic trends, and economic indicators—such as the Nordic Forecasting Initiative (NFI)—project that Labour will secure 90–100 seats out of 169 in the Storting, sufficient for a majority when partnered with the Liberal and Centre parties. The models also indicate that the opposition will struggle to cross the 4 % threshold unless a significant shift in public sentiment occurs.

6. Looking Forward: What Could Change the Narrative?

While early projections are positive for Labour, the election is still a full two years away. Several factors could alter the trajectory:

1. Economic Shock: A sudden spike in oil prices or a financial crisis could erode voter confidence in Labour’s economic stewardship.
2. Climate Policy Fallout: Any backlash over perceived greenwashing or failures in environmental commitments might swing voters toward more radical environmental parties.
3. Immigration Surge: An influx of refugees or immigrants could amplify debates around immigration, potentially benefiting the Progress Party or the Conservatives depending on their policy responses.
4. Leadership Challenges: Internal divisions within the Labour Party, especially concerning the selection of a new party leader, could create a perception of instability.

Nevertheless, current data suggest that the Norwegian electorate is leaning towards continuity and stability, favouring the social‑democratic model that has governed the country for decades.

7. Key Takeaways

• Labour’s Lead: Early polling indicates a 10‑12 % lead over the Conservative Party, a figure that translates into a likely majority in the Storting.
• Coalition Prospects: The Labour Party is expected to continue its partnership with the Liberal and Centre parties, mirroring the coalition structure from 2021.
• Economic and Climate Emphasis: Støre’s administration has capitalised on strong economic performance and a proactive climate agenda to maintain voter confidence.
• Opposition Fragmentation: The Conservative–Progress split and internal dissent among other parties weaken the opposition’s ability to mount a credible challenge.
• Institutional Mechanics: Norway’s proportional representation system with a 4 % threshold favors larger coalitions, reinforcing Labour’s advantage.

For voters, the upcoming election promises a choice between continuity under the Labour‑led coalition and a more fragmented opposition that has struggled to present a unified vision. As Norway approaches the 2025 election, the narrative will continue to evolve, but the current data point firmly in favour of a Labour‑led government returning to the Storting.