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Iraq's 2021 Parliamentary Election: A Deep Political Gridlock

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, November 13th 2025 at 22:56 GMT by The Hans India

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Iraq’s 2021 Parliamentary Elections: A Result of Deep Political Gridlock

The 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, held on 12 December, marked the first general vote since the 2018 elections were postponed and the country’s political system was again thrust into the international spotlight. The results, announced by the Supreme Council for the Regulation of Elections (SCRE) in early February 2022, revealed a parliament that is both diverse and deeply fractured, underscoring a crisis of governance that has persisted for months. The Hans India piece “The Struggle Begins: Iraq’s Election Results Signal Deep Political Gridlock” (published on 11 April 2024) provides a comprehensive overview of the outcomes, the forces shaping the post‑election landscape, and the implications for Iraq’s future.

1. Election Mechanics and Turnout

Iraq’s latest electoral law – adopted in 2018 – moved the country from a district‑based system to a national list. Every seat in the 329‑member Council of Representatives is now decided on a nationwide proportional basis. This change was designed to promote national unity but also raised concerns about the marginalization of local voices. The 2021 vote saw a turnout of roughly 52 % of eligible voters, a modest decline from the 58 % recorded in 2018. Analysts cited security concerns, economic hardship, and lingering distrust of the electoral process as key factors that dampened participation.

The Supreme Court’s intervention in November 2021, which delayed the announcement of final results, was a reminder of the legal entanglements that have plagued Iraq’s elections. The court’s ruling clarified ambiguities in the electoral law and allowed the SCRE to release a definitive seat count, but it also meant that coalition talks had to start with incomplete data.

2. The Seat Distribution

The final tally, as presented by the SCRE, is as follows:

No single bloc achieved the 165 seats required for a majority. The Kurdish parties, together holding 42 seats, have historically been pivotal in forming coalitions, but their internal divisions and the rising influence of Kurdish nationalist groups add another layer of complexity.

The article notes that the SLC’s 41 seats – a steep decline from its 48 seats in 2018 – signals waning confidence in al‑Maliki’s leadership, particularly among younger voters who see the party as emblematic of the old sectarian politics that led to the 2003 invasion and subsequent instability.

3. Coalition Negotiations and Political Gridlock

Negotiations over the next government have stalled for months, reflecting not only sectarian divides but also competing visions of Iraq’s future. The major obstacles are:

1. Sectarian Representation: The constitution mandates that the prime minister must be a Shia, the speaker of parliament a Sunni, and the head of the security council a Kurd. Achieving consensus on these roles while also satisfying the demands of each sect’s parties is a delicate balancing act.

2. External Influences: Iran’s shadow presence in the Shia parties, Turkey’s support for Kurdish factions, and the U.S. insistence on a stable government that can counter Iranian influence have all played into the negotiation dynamics. The article references a recent U.N. report highlighting how foreign funding has exacerbated intra‑party competition.

3. Policy Divergence: While the SLC and the Islamic Dawa Party both hail from the Shia community, their stances on issues such as economic reform, anti-corruption measures, and the pace of Kurdish autonomy differ sharply. The Kurdish parties, meanwhile, are split between those who favor a more autonomous “Kurdistan Region” and those who argue for a federal system that keeps the central government in control.

4. Leadership Disputes: The SLC is led by Nouri al‑Maliki, who has repeatedly been criticized for his authoritarian style and allegations of corruption. His party’s internal leadership contest has weakened its negotiating position.

The Hans India article quotes a political analyst who notes that the current stalemate is “a symptom of a deeper, long‑standing erosion of democratic norms” and that the next cabinet may have to resort to a technocratic or caretaker government to bridge the divide.

4. The Wider Impact on Governance

Iraq’s inability to form a stable government carries serious domestic and regional repercussions:

• Governance Vacuum: With no prime minister or cabinet in place, critical functions—such as budget approvals, security coordination, and public service delivery—have stalled. Public frustration is mounting, as seen in the protests that erupted in early 2022 demanding reforms and anti‑corruption measures.

• Security Concerns: The Kurdistan Region’s autonomy has already been a flashpoint in the past, and a fragmented central government may embolden militias that rely on a weak state to operate.

• Foreign Policy Uncertainty: Iraq’s position in the Middle East – particularly its role as a buffer between Iranian influence and Western interests – is precarious. The lack of a clear government hampers diplomatic negotiations over the disputed Mosul water rights and the ongoing security cooperation with the U.S.

• Economic Slowdown: The economy, already strained by sanctions, dwindling oil revenues, and a high unemployment rate, could suffer from a further lack of coherent economic policy.

The article stresses that “the gridlock threatens to undermine the legitimacy of Iraq’s nascent democracy, giving both domestic and external actors a pretext to further destabilize the country.”

5. International Reactions and Observations

Several international observers commented on the electoral outcome and the ensuing stalemate. A UN report, cited in the Hans India article, praised the overall conduct of the election but warned that the “lack of a clear, inclusive government risks eroding public trust.” The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued a statement urging all parties to reach a “fair and functional government” that upholds the rights of all Iraqis, while also recognizing the challenges posed by sectarian politics.

The article also mentions a joint statement from the European Union and the Arab League that called for “dialogue, reform, and the protection of democratic institutions.” These remarks echo the broader international consensus that Iraq’s stability is pivotal not only for the country but for the wider region.

6. Historical Context

The 2021 elections are part of a larger narrative of post‑Invasion Iraq, where the interplay of sectarian identity, tribal loyalties, and external patronage has repeatedly stymied democratic consolidation. The article traces the evolution from the 2005 constitutional referendum to the 2018 elections, highlighting how each cycle has been marred by allegations of fraud, vote‑buying, and electoral boycotts.

It also underscores the role of the Supreme Council for the Regulation of Elections (SCRE) – the body tasked with overseeing electoral integrity – whose mandate has been contested by various political factions. The article notes that “the SCRE’s impartiality has been questioned in the past, leading to a loss of confidence among certain voter blocs.”

7. Path Forward

The Hans India piece concludes by outlining possible pathways for resolution:

• A Consensus‑Based Coalition: Parties may need to set aside sectarian identities to form a broad coalition that reflects Iraq’s demographic diversity. This would require compromise on key policy issues such as resource sharing and security arrangements.

• A Technocratic Interim Government: Some analysts argue that a caretaker government composed of respected technocrats could steer Iraq through the immediate crisis, providing a neutral platform for future elections.

• Electoral Reform: The article calls for a re‑examination of the national list system to address concerns about regional representation and local governance.

• International Mediation: The U.S., Iran, Turkey, and the EU could play a constructive role in mediating talks, but any mediation must respect Iraqi sovereignty.

In sum, the 2021 election results represent a pivotal moment in Iraq’s struggle to establish a functional democracy. The deep political gridlock that follows underscores the fragility of Iraq’s institutions and the need for comprehensive, inclusive reforms that bridge sectarian divides, strengthen the rule of law, and ensure that the Iraqi people’s voice is heard in the corridors of power.