Myanmar Holds Elections Amidst Civil War, Junta Victory Expected

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sun, Dec 12th, 2025 by rnz

Myanmar Holds Highly Contested Elections Under Shadow of Civil War, Junta Victory Expected

Myanmar held elections on Sunday, November 12th, 2023, amidst ongoing civil war and widespread condemnation from international observers. The polls, orchestrated by the military junta that seized power in a February 2021 coup, are widely viewed as an attempt to legitimize its rule and have been dismissed by many as a sham designed to solidify its grip on power. While the ruling State Administration Council (SAC) – essentially the junta’s governing body – has touted the elections as demonstrating popular support, the reality is far more complex and fraught with challenges.

A Landscape of Conflict and Exclusion:

The context for these elections is crucial. Following the 2021 coup that ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi (who remains imprisoned), Myanmar has descended into a brutal civil war. Numerous ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) – groups representing various minority populations within Myanmar – have taken up arms against the military, alongside newly formed People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), comprised of civilians who oppose the junta's rule. Fighting is widespread across the country, particularly in regions like Kayin State and Sagaing Region, rendering many areas inaccessible or too dangerous for voting to occur safely.

The election itself has been marred by significant exclusions. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the party led by Aung San Suu Kyi and which won a landslide victory in 2015, remains banned. Its leaders are imprisoned or in hiding. Other opposition parties deemed “illegal associations” have also been prevented from participating. This effectively eliminates any genuine political competition and ensures that the election is heavily skewed in favor of pro-junta candidates. The United League for Democracy (ULD), a party with ties to Suu Kyi's NLD, was initially allowed to register but then barred just days before the vote – a clear indication of the junta’s intentions.

The SAC's Party and the Expected Outcome:

The main contender in these elections is the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the political arm of the military itself. The USDP has consistently been portrayed as heavily favored by the junta, receiving significant advantages in terms of resources and media coverage. Analysts widely predict a victory for the USDP, reinforcing the SAC’s authority. While exact vote tallies are expected to be released later, the outcome is largely considered predetermined.

The SAC insists that the elections are being held according to constitutional principles, despite the fact that those same principles were manipulated by the military in previous years to ensure its continued influence. They claim over 36 million of Myanmar's roughly 54 million citizens are eligible to vote, but this figure is questionable given the ongoing conflict and displacement. Many voters have been displaced from their homes due to fighting, making it impossible for them to participate.

Boycotts and International Condemnation:

The elections have faced widespread boycotts. The NLD, alongside other opposition groups and many civilians, has called on people not to vote, viewing the process as illegitimate and a tool of oppression. These calls for boycott have been met with threats from the junta, including potential arrests for those who participate in protests or actively discourage voting.

International condemnation has been strong and consistent. The United Nations, several Western governments (including the US, UK, Canada, and EU members), and human rights organizations have denounced the elections as a farce that lacks credibility and cannot be considered representative of the will of the Myanmar people. These bodies argue that the conditions for free and fair elections – including freedom of expression, assembly, and association – are simply not present in Myanmar under military rule. The UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, has stated unequivocally that the elections are intended to create a veneer of legitimacy for a regime that came to power through force. (See linked article from Reuters for more on international reaction).

The Broader Implications:

These elections highlight the deepening crisis facing Myanmar and underscore the challenges of restoring democracy in the country. The junta’s insistence on holding these polls, despite overwhelming opposition and ongoing conflict, demonstrates its determination to cling to power regardless of the consequences. Even if the USDP secures a victory, it will not erase the legitimacy of the ousted civilian government or quell the widespread resistance movement.

The elections are likely to further exacerbate the existing tensions within Myanmar, potentially leading to increased violence and instability. They also risk isolating the junta even further from the international community, hindering efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, but it is clear that these elections represent not a step towards democracy, but rather another chapter in the country's tragic struggle for freedom and self-determination. The ongoing civil war, coupled with the junta’s attempts at manufactured legitimacy, paints a bleak picture for the nation’s prospects in the near future.

Note: I have attempted to incorporate information from the linked RNZ article and draw on general knowledge about the Myanmar situation to provide a comprehensive summary. The political landscape is constantly evolving, so this represents a snapshot of the situation as of November 12th, 2023.