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Portugal Election: Centre-Right Gains Lead, Faces Majority Challenge

Portuguese Centre-Right Extends Poll Lead but Remains Short of Parliamentary Majority

In the lead-up to Portugal's snap general election scheduled for March 10, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has solidified its position at the top of recent opinion polls, yet it appears increasingly likely that the coalition will fall short of securing an outright majority in parliament. This development underscores the fragmented nature of Portuguese politics, where no single party or alliance has dominated since the country's return to democracy in 1974. The AD, led by Luis Montenegro of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), has been gaining traction amid widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent Socialist Party's handling of various crises, including corruption scandals and economic challenges exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation.

According to the latest poll conducted by Intercampus for the Correio da Manha newspaper and CMTV, the AD has extended its lead, garnering an estimated 30 percent of the vote. This marks a slight increase from previous surveys, reflecting a growing appeal among voters disillusioned with the left-leaning government that has been in power since 2015 under Prime Minister Antonio Costa. The Socialists, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos following Costa's resignation in November 2023 amid a high-profile corruption probe involving lithium mining deals and hydrogen projects, are trailing with around 25 percent support. This probe, which implicated several high-ranking officials and even touched on Costa himself (though he denies wrongdoing), has significantly eroded public trust in the Socialist administration, paving the way for the opposition's surge.

However, the poll highlights a critical shortfall for the AD: even with its lead, the alliance—which includes the PSD, the conservative CDS-PP, and the monarchist PPM— is projected to win between 80 and 90 seats in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic. This falls well short of the 116 seats needed for a majority, meaning any potential AD government would require alliances or tacit support from other parties to govern effectively. Montenegro has repeatedly vowed not to form coalitions with the far-right Chega party, which has emerged as a kingmaker in this electoral landscape. Chega, founded by Andre Ventura in 2019, has seen its support skyrocket from a mere 1.3 percent in the 2019 election to projections of up to 18 percent in the current poll, potentially translating to 40-50 seats. Ventura's party, known for its anti-immigration stance, Euroscepticism, and calls for tougher crime policies, has capitalized on issues like housing shortages, low wages, and perceived failures in public services.

The rise of Chega represents a broader shift in Portuguese politics, mirroring trends across Europe where populist and far-right movements have gained ground in countries like Italy, Sweden, and the Netherlands. In Portugal, traditionally seen as a bastion of social democracy with a strong left-wing tradition dating back to the Carnation Revolution, this marks a notable departure. Analysts point to economic frustrations as a key driver: despite Portugal's post-pandemic recovery and tourism boom, many citizens grapple with stagnant wages, a severe housing crisis in cities like Lisbon and Porto, and inadequate healthcare and education systems. The Socialist government's "geringonca" (contraption) arrangement—a loose alliance with far-left parties like the Left Bloc and Communists—successfully navigated austerity measures after the 2008 financial crisis but has since been criticized for failing to deliver on promises of improved living standards.

Montenegro, a 50-year-old lawyer and former parliamentary leader, has positioned the AD as a moderate alternative, emphasizing fiscal responsibility, tax cuts for businesses, and investments in infrastructure to boost economic growth. His campaign slogans focus on "change with responsibility," appealing to centrist voters wary of radical shifts. Yet, the AD's reluctance to engage with Chega complicates post-election scenarios. If the AD wins the most seats but lacks a majority, it could face a minority government vulnerable to no-confidence votes, or it might need to negotiate with smaller parties or even independents. On the left, the Socialists could attempt to revive their alliances with the Left Bloc (projected at 8-10 percent) and Communists (around 5 percent), but internal divisions and the corruption scandal make this challenging.

Experts warn that a hung parliament could lead to political instability, potentially delaying key decisions on EU recovery funds, which Portugal relies on for green energy transitions and digital infrastructure. With over €16 billion (S$23 billion) in EU grants and loans at stake, any governmental paralysis might hinder economic progress. Pollsters note a high undecided voter rate—around 20 percent—suggesting the race could tighten in the final weeks, especially with televised debates and campaign rallies intensifying.

Ventura, Chega's charismatic leader and a former football commentator, has not shied away from controversy, often using inflammatory rhetoric against immigrants, the Roma community, and what he calls "corrupt elites." His party's potential role as a power broker has drawn comparisons to Spain's Vox or France's National Rally, raising concerns among progressive groups about the erosion of Portugal's inclusive society. Meanwhile, smaller parties like the liberal Initiative (around 6 percent) and the animal rights-focused PAN (3 percent) could play pivotal roles in coalition talks, adding layers of complexity.

As the election approaches, the Portuguese electorate faces a choice between continuity with a tarnished Socialist legacy, a centre-right shift towards pragmatism, or a flirtation with far-right populism. The outcome will not only shape domestic policies on issues like abortion rights, which Chega seeks to restrict, but also influence Portugal's stance in the European Union, where it has been a pro-integration voice. With voter turnout historically low—around 50 percent in recent elections—mobilization efforts by all parties are crucial. The poll's margin of error, at about 3 percent, leaves room for surprises, but the current trajectory points to a centre-right plurality without the strength for unilateral rule, setting the stage for intense negotiations and possible compromises in Lisbon's political corridors.

This evolving scenario reflects deeper societal undercurrents in Portugal, a nation of 10 million that has transformed from a dictatorship to a stable democracy but now grapples with inequality and disillusionment. The AD's lead, while promising, underscores the challenges of governing in a multipolar political environment, where ideological purity often gives way to pragmatic alliances. As campaigns heat up, the focus will be on whether Montenegro can maintain his anti-Chega stance or if necessity forces a reevaluation, potentially reshaping the Portuguese right for years to come. (Word count: 928)

Read the Full The Straits Times Article at:
[ https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/portuguese-centre-right-extends-poll-lead-but-still-looks-short-of-majority ]