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India-Bangladesh Ties: A Relationship in Subtle Shift

The Bangladesh Puzzle: India's Cautious Diplomacy with a Once-Trusted Neighbour

The relationship between India and Bangladesh, once lauded as a model of neighbourly cooperation, is undergoing a subtle but significant shift, marked by increasing complexities and a cautious approach from New Delhi. This isn’t a dramatic rupture, but rather a gradual recalibration born out of evolving domestic politics in both countries, shifting geopolitical realities, and a growing divergence in perspectives on issues ranging from border management to trade and the Rohingya refugee crisis. ThePrint's article, "The Bangladesh Puzzle: India's Cautious Diplomacy with a Once-Trusted Neighbour," delves into this nuanced situation, highlighting the factors contributing to this evolving dynamic and analyzing what it means for the future of bilateral ties.

Historically, the bond between India and Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) has been deeply intertwined, rooted in the shared struggle for liberation in 1971. India’s decisive military intervention played a crucial role in securing Bangladesh's independence, fostering a sense of gratitude and trust that defined the relationship for decades. This foundation facilitated extensive cooperation on issues like water sharing (particularly concerning the Teesta River), border security, combating insurgency, and trade. However, the article argues that this seemingly unbreakable bond is now facing unprecedented pressures, demanding a more sophisticated and nuanced diplomatic strategy from India.

One of the primary drivers of this shift lies within Bangladesh itself. The rise of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) and her prolonged tenure as Prime Minister have brought about significant political consolidation but also intensified concerns regarding democratic governance and human rights. While Hasina has been credited with economic progress and combating Islamist extremism, critics point to a crackdown on dissent, erosion of judicial independence, and the suppression of opposition voices. This internal political landscape directly impacts India’s diplomatic calculations. New Delhi's traditionally cautious public stance on Bangladesh's domestic affairs is now further complicated by the need to balance its support for stability with concerns about democratic values – a delicate act that requires careful navigation.

The article emphasizes that the Rohingya refugee crisis has become a major point of contention and a significant strain on bilateral relations. The influx of over a million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar into Bangladesh in 2017 created an immense humanitarian challenge, placing enormous pressure on Bangladesh's resources and infrastructure. While India initially expressed concern about regional stability and potential security implications, it has largely refrained from publicly criticizing Myanmar’s actions or offering substantial assistance to the Rohingya refugees themselves. This stance, while understandable given its own complex relationship with Myanmar, has been perceived by some in Bangladesh as a lack of solidarity and a prioritization of strategic interests over humanitarian concerns. The article suggests that this perception has contributed to a growing sense of disappointment within certain segments of Bangladeshi society towards India's approach.

Furthermore, the article highlights the increasing influence of China in Bangladesh. Beijing’s substantial investments in infrastructure projects, coupled with its non-interference policy, have allowed it to cultivate strong economic ties with Dhaka without demanding political reforms or adherence to democratic norms. This has created an alternative development partner for Bangladesh, reducing its dependence on India and providing a counterweight to New Delhi's influence. While China’s involvement isn't inherently negative, it undeniably complicates India’s strategic position in the region. The article suggests that India needs to proactively engage with Bangladesh to offer competitive alternatives and demonstrate the value of continued partnership, rather than simply reacting to China’s presence.

Trade imbalances also contribute to the growing complexities. Despite a free trade agreement being in place, India's exports to Bangladesh significantly outweigh its imports. This imbalance creates economic anxieties within Bangladesh, fueling resentment among local industries that struggle to compete with cheaper Indian goods. While this is partly due to differences in production capabilities and economies of scale, it underscores the need for India to address these concerns and create a more equitable trading environment. The article points out that focusing on facilitating Bangladeshi exports to India, particularly agricultural products and textiles, could help alleviate some of these tensions.

Beyond these specific issues, the article suggests a broader shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy outlook. Dhaka is increasingly asserting its independent agency and pursuing a multi-aligned approach, seeking partnerships with various countries beyond India. This isn't necessarily indicative of a desire to distance itself from India entirely, but rather reflects a growing confidence and ambition on the part of Bangladesh to chart its own course in international affairs.

India’s response to this evolving landscape has been characterized by caution and a more measured approach. New Delhi is acutely aware of the potential pitfalls of overt pressure or public criticism, recognizing that such actions could backfire and push Dhaka closer to Beijing. Instead, India seems to be opting for a strategy of quiet diplomacy, focusing on maintaining communication channels and addressing concerns through bilateral discussions. However, the article argues that this cautious approach may not be sufficient.

The Print’s analysis concludes that India needs to adopt a more proactive and nuanced diplomatic strategy towards Bangladesh. This requires a deeper understanding of the internal dynamics within Bangladesh, a willingness to engage constructively with Dhaka on sensitive issues like human rights and democratic governance (without being overly prescriptive), and a commitment to addressing trade imbalances and fostering mutually beneficial economic partnerships. Crucially, India needs to demonstrate genuine empathy for the challenges faced by Bangladesh in managing the Rohingya refugee crisis and offer tangible support beyond mere rhetoric.

Ultimately, maintaining a strong and stable relationship with Bangladesh remains vital for India’s strategic interests in South Asia. The article suggests that ignoring or downplaying the current complexities risks further eroding trust and creating opportunities for other powers to expand their influence. Rebuilding and strengthening this once-trusted neighbourly bond requires a renewed commitment to understanding, engagement, and a willingness to adapt to the evolving realities of the region – a puzzle India must solve with careful consideration and strategic foresight. The future of regional stability and cooperation hinges on it.

Read the Full ThePrint Article at:
[ https://theprint.in/diplomacy/the-bangladesh-puzzle-indias-cautious-diplomacy-with-a-once-trusted-neighbour/2713402/ ]