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Bangladeshs Democratic Aspirations Remain Just That

Bangladesh's Turbulent Transition: From Sheikh Hasina's Rule to Muhammad Yunus's Interim Leadership

In the sweltering heat of Dhaka's streets, where student-led protests erupted into a nationwide uprising, Bangladesh witnessed one of the most dramatic political upheavals in its recent history. On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina, the long-serving prime minister and leader of the Awami League, fled the country amid escalating violence, marking the end of her 15-year authoritarian grip on power. What followed was the swift appointment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of an interim government, tasked with steering the nation toward fresh elections and restoring democratic norms. This shift has ignited debates about the future of democracy, human rights, and economic stability in a country that has long balanced rapid development with deepening repression.

Sheikh Hasina's tenure, which began in 2009 after a landslide victory, was initially hailed for transforming Bangladesh from a fragile post-colonial state into an economic powerhouse. Under her leadership, the garment industry boomed, poverty rates plummeted, and GDP growth averaged around 6-7% annually, lifting millions out of destitution. Infrastructure projects, such as the Padma Bridge and metro systems in Dhaka, symbolized progress. Hasina positioned Bangladesh as a model for developing nations, emphasizing women's empowerment—evidenced by her own rise as the daughter of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—and initiatives like digital inclusion and climate resilience. However, this narrative of success masked a darker underbelly of authoritarianism that ultimately led to her downfall.

Critics argue that Hasina's rule devolved into a one-party dominance, where the Awami League systematically dismantled opposition through rigged elections, enforced disappearances, and draconian laws. The 2018 and 2024 elections were marred by allegations of voter suppression and ballot stuffing, with the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotting the latter. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, documented thousands of cases of extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detentions. The Digital Security Act, later replaced by the even more stringent Cyber Security Act, was weaponized to silence journalists, activists, and dissenters. Prominent figures like photographer Shahidul Alam and opposition leader Khaleda Zia faced imprisonment on what many deemed fabricated charges. Hasina's government justified these measures as necessary to combat terrorism and maintain stability, but they eroded the democratic fabric that Bangladesh had painstakingly built since its independence in 1971.

The spark that ignited the 2024 protests was a seemingly innocuous issue: job quotas in the civil service. Reserved positions for descendants of 1971 freedom fighters—many aligned with the Awami League—were seen as perpetuating nepotism in a country where youth unemployment hovers around 12%. What began as peaceful student demonstrations in July quickly escalated into mass unrest, fueled by economic grievances like inflation, corruption, and inequality. Security forces responded with lethal force, resulting in over 300 deaths and thousands injured. The protests morphed into a broader anti-Hasina movement, drawing in diverse groups from laborers to professionals, united by demands for justice and reform. When the military refused to suppress the crowds and instead facilitated Hasina's exit, it signaled a pivotal moment, reminiscent of the 1990 ouster of dictator Hussain Muhammad Ershad.

Enter Muhammad Yunus, the 84-year-old microfinance pioneer whose Grameen Bank revolutionized poverty alleviation and earned him the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize. Appointed on August 8, 2024, as chief adviser to the interim government, Yunus represents a stark contrast to Hasina's iron-fisted style. A vocal critic of her regime, Yunus had faced over 100 legal cases, including embezzlement charges widely viewed as politically motivated. His release from these entanglements post-Hasina underscores the vindictive nature of her rule. Yunus's mandate is clear: stabilize the country, reform electoral processes, and hold free and fair elections within months. He has assembled a diverse cabinet, including student leaders from the protests, human rights activists, and technocrats, signaling an inclusive approach.

Yet, Yunus's interim leadership is not without challenges. Democracy in Bangladesh remains fragile, with the military's role looming large. The army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, who is Hasina's cousin, played a key role in her departure but has pledged neutrality. Historical precedents, such as the 2007-2008 caretaker government that overstayed its welcome, raise fears of prolonged military influence. Yunus must navigate demands for accountability, including trials for Hasina's alleged crimes—ranging from corruption to human rights abuses—while avoiding a witch hunt that could deepen divisions. The release of political prisoners, including Khaleda Zia, and the dissolution of the Rapid Action Battalion (accused of atrocities) are positive steps, but reforming institutions like the judiciary and police will require sustained effort.

Human rights are at the forefront of this transition. Under Hasina, Bangladesh's record was abysmal: the UN reported over 600 enforced disappearances since 2009, and freedom of expression was curtailed, with Bangladesh ranking 163rd in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index. Yunus has promised to repeal repressive laws and investigate past abuses, but the interim government faces pressure from international actors. The United States, which imposed sanctions on Bangladeshi officials in 2021 for human rights violations, has welcomed the change, as has the European Union. India, Hasina's staunch ally, expresses caution, viewing Yunus as potentially pro-Western and less amenable to New Delhi's interests in border security and trade. China, a major investor in infrastructure, remains pragmatic, prioritizing economic ties over political ideology.

Economically, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. Hasina's model delivered impressive growth, with exports reaching $55 billion in 2023, primarily from ready-made garments. The country graduated from least developed country status in 2021, but vulnerabilities persist. Foreign reserves dwindled to $21 billion by mid-2024, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food and fuel prices, and a $4.7 billion IMF bailout in 2023. Inflation hit 9.7% in July 2024, eroding purchasing power for the 170 million population. The protests disrupted supply chains, causing an estimated $10 billion in losses. Yunus, leveraging his expertise in social business, aims to address these by promoting inclusive growth, diversifying exports beyond textiles, and tackling climate change—Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels and cyclones.

The garment sector, employing 4 million mostly women, is a linchpin. Post-Rana Plaza disaster in 2013, reforms improved safety, but labor rights remain contentious. Yunus could push for better wages and unionization, aligning with global demands for ethical sourcing. Remittances from 10 million overseas workers, totaling $22 billion annually, provide a buffer, but brain drain among the youth—exacerbated by political instability—poses risks. Attracting foreign investment will depend on restoring stability; companies like H&M and Walmart have expressed concerns over disruptions.

Looking ahead, the path to genuine democracy is fraught. The Awami League, now in disarray with Hasina in exile (reportedly in India), must reinvent itself without her dynastic hold. The BNP, led by the ailing Khaleda Zia, seeks a comeback but faces internal fractures. Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, banned under Hasina, are re-emerging, raising concerns about radicalization in a secular-leaning society. Yunus has emphasized unity, drawing on Bangladesh's history of resilience—from the 1971 liberation war to the 1991 cyclone recovery.

International observers stress the need for electoral reforms, including an independent election commission and voter verification systems. The UN and Commonwealth could play roles in monitoring polls. For human rights, establishing a truth and reconciliation commission might heal wounds without perpetuating cycles of vengeance. Economically, Yunus's vision of "three zeros"—zero poverty, zero unemployment, zero carbon emissions—offers an aspirational framework, but implementation requires political will and global support.

Bangladesh's story is one of contrasts: a nation that achieved middle-income status amid authoritarian backsliding now seeks redemption through interim stewardship. Whether Yunus can deliver on promises of democracy and justice, or if old power structures resurface, will define the country's trajectory. As protests give way to governance, the world watches a pivotal experiment in South Asian politics, where hope intertwines with uncertainty. The coming months will test if Bangladesh can emerge as a beacon of democratic renewal or succumb to familiar pitfalls. (Word count: 1,248)

Read the Full Foreign Policy Article at:
[ https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/04/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-yunus-awami-league-democracy-human-rights-economy/ ]