N※N

Venezuela's Dual Authority: A Persistent Stalemate

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. ela-s-dual-authority-a-persistent-stalemate.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, March 8th 2026 at 7:05 GMT by The Hill
      Locales: VENEZUELA, UNITED STATES

The Stalemate and Shifting Sands

Since 2019, when Juan Guaido, then President of the National Assembly, invoked the interim presidency, Venezuela has existed in a state of dual authority. Guaido's claim, backed by the United States and numerous other nations, failed to dislodge Maduro, who retained control through the military and state institutions. While international support for Guaido has waned significantly - his interim government was dissolved in late 2022 - Maduro's position remains precarious, propped up by alliances with countries like Cuba, Russia, and China, and sustained by revenue from oil exports, despite US sanctions.

Nicolas Maduro: Consolidating Power

Maduro's presidency, beginning in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chavez, has been marked by authoritarian tendencies, economic mismanagement, and widespread human rights violations. While he has successfully weathered numerous attempts to remove him from power, including international pressure and domestic protests, the cost has been immense. The Venezuelan economy has collapsed, leading to hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, and a mass exodus of citizens. Maduro continues to consolidate his control by suppressing dissent, manipulating elections, and relying on a loyal base within the military and the ruling PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela). His recent moves indicate a focus on maintaining power at all costs, even if it means further isolating Venezuela from the international community.

The Decline of Guaido and the Opposition's Fragmentation

Juan Guaido's failure to achieve a political transition underscored the deep divisions within the Venezuelan opposition. The initial momentum he garnered faded as Maduro's grip tightened and international support waned. The dismantling of his interim government reflects a broader disillusionment with the strategy of external recognition as a pathway to change. The opposition is now heavily fragmented, with various factions pursuing different strategies, ranging from negotiation to renewed protests. This internal discord hinders their ability to present a unified front and capitalize on the widespread discontent with Maduro's rule.

Key Figures Beyond the Headlines

Understanding the Venezuelan political landscape requires looking beyond the two most visible figures. Several individuals wield significant influence:

• Delcy Rodriguez: As Vice President and Maduro's chief negotiator, Rodriguez is instrumental in managing the government's international relations and navigating sanctions. She is a skilled political operator known for her uncompromising stance.
• Diosdado Cabello: A veteran military leader and key figure in the PSUV, Cabello is widely considered one of the most powerful individuals in Venezuela. His control over the military and influence within the party are substantial, making him a crucial power broker.
• Jorge Rodriguez: President of the National Assembly, he serves as a prominent defender of Maduro's government and a vocal critic of the opposition. He often leads negotiations with opposition groups, attempting to find solutions that favor the ruling party.
• Elvis Amoroso: As head of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Amoroso has been accused of manipulating elections to favor the government. The CNE's independence is highly questionable, casting doubt on the fairness and transparency of electoral processes.
• Tarek El Aissami: Though previously a high-profile minister, his alleged involvement in drug trafficking led to U.S. sanctions. He represents a powerful faction within the regime linked to illicit activities.

The Road Ahead: Negotiations and Potential Scenarios

The future of Venezuela remains uncertain. While a swift and complete political transition seems unlikely in the short term, negotiations between the government and the opposition are ongoing, mediated by international actors. These talks, aimed at establishing electoral guarantees and ensuring fair and transparent elections, represent a potential pathway to a peaceful resolution. However, significant obstacles remain, including Maduro's reluctance to concede any meaningful power, and the deep mistrust between the two sides.

Several scenarios are possible:

• Continued Stalemate: The most likely scenario, where Maduro remains in power, the opposition remains fragmented, and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen.
• Negotiated Transition: A breakthrough in negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement or free and fair elections, paving the way for a more democratic government.
• Increased Instability: Escalating protests, economic collapse, or external intervention could lead to increased instability and violence.

Ultimately, resolving the Venezuelan crisis requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the underlying political, economic, and social issues. External pressure, while important, must be accompanied by genuine dialogue and a commitment from all parties to prioritize the well-being of the Venezuelan people.