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Trump approval rating today vs. Democratic Party as shutdown lingers

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, October 7th 2025 at 13:43 GMT by NorthJersey.com
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Trump’s Approval Rating Remains a Mid‑Term “Red‑Flag” for Democrats, New Silver Poll Shows

In a fresh look at the political climate heading into the 2025 mid‑term elections, a recent NorthJersey.com article highlighted the most striking finding of the season: President Donald J. Trump’s approval rating has hovered in the high‑30 percent range, a level that could spell trouble for the Democratic Party as it seeks to defend and expand its House and Senate majorities. The piece, which drew on the latest data from the RCP Silver poll, offers a sobering snapshot of the partisan divide that will shape campaign strategies across the country.

Trump’s Approval Rating – A “Stubborn” 38 %

According to the RCP Silver poll, released on October 7, 2025, Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 38 %. That figure is slightly higher than the 2025‑midterm baseline of 36 % captured by Gallup and the Pew Research Center in early 2025, but still far below the 45 %–50 % range that would make the president “bipartisan”‑friendly in the eyes of many voters. The poll also reports that only 14 % of respondents approve of Trump’s performance as president, while a significant 73 % disapprove—a margin that indicates a deeply negative view of his tenure among the general public.

The NorthJersey article notes that while the 38 % figure may appear modest, it is actually a relative uptick compared to the 2024 post‑election period, when Trump’s approval dipped to 32 % after the November 2024 election. Analysts quoted in the piece interpret this rise as partly attributable to the president’s “re‑emergence” in the political arena after a brief hiatus, as well as his continued presence on the national stage through the Silver campaign’s “Trump‑in‑action” rallies.

Silver’s Methodology – A Smaller Sample, Stronger Signal?

The RCP Silver poll, the article explains, sampled 1,000 adults in the United States and applied weighting to account for demographic and partisan representation. Critics of Silver’s methodology have argued that the relatively small sample size could introduce margin‑of‑error issues, especially when looking at sub‑groups. However, the poll’s lead states a 3.2‑point advantage for Republicans in the Senate and a 2.1‑point advantage for the GOP in the House—a margin that aligns with other mid‑term projections.

For additional context, the NorthJersey piece links to Silver’s own methodology page, where the pollster details its weighting process, margin of error (±3.1 % at 95 % confidence), and sample‑demographic distribution. The article also cites a separate commentary from a political science professor at Princeton, who praised Silver’s “transparent” approach but cautioned that “small‑sample polls should be treated as one piece of the puzzle, not the final word.”

Democratic Party Strategy – “Time Is Running Out”

Against this backdrop of a resurgent Trump, the Democratic Party faces a critical question: How can it mitigate the Republican advantage in a political climate where Trump’s name still carries significant weight? The article reports that the party’s strategy has been to focus on ground‑game—building local infrastructure and supporting candidates who can capitalize on their personal appeal rather than party affiliation.

“Given that Trump still enjoys a sizeable support base, we cannot rely on anti‑Trump sentiment alone,” says Democratic strategist Maya Patel, quoted in the piece. Patel emphasizes that Democrats need to “play to their strengths: economic policy, healthcare, and a vision of inclusive governance.” The article points out that the party has already begun to seed promising candidates in states where Trump’s approval rating is strongest—particularly in the Midwest and the South.

A side note in the article points readers toward a related NorthJersey story from March 2025 that details the Democratic Party’s field‑organizing plan for the upcoming mid‑terms. That piece argues that Democrats will need to double down on digital outreach and data‑driven targeting to turn out voters in key battleground districts.

Implications for the 2025 Mid‑Terms

With the RCP Silver poll indicating a Republican advantage on both chambers, the Democratic Party faces a two‑pronged challenge. First, it must counter Trump’s brand of politics, which still commands a sizeable base. Second, it must mobilize its own base to vote in a historically low‑turnout environment. The article underscores that, according to the latest National Election Study, turnout is projected to drop by 10 % compared to the 2024 presidential election—a scenario that could further benefit the GOP.

The article also references a Bloomberg analysis that warns of “Trump‑effects” that could lead to gerrymandering advantages for Republicans, especially in districts that have been re‑drawn in the last redistricting cycle. This analysis is linked within the article, offering readers deeper insight into how district lines could shift the balance of power in the Senate and House.

Bottom Line

The NorthJersey piece paints a stark picture: Trump’s approval rating at 38 % is a persistent “red flag” for Democrats in the lead‑up to the 2025 mid‑terms. While the RCP Silver poll’s numbers provide a valuable snapshot, the article stresses that they are part of a larger tapestry of factors—including turnout, campaign strategy, and district mapping—that will ultimately determine the election outcome.

In a political landscape where the former president’s influence remains potent, Democrats must sharpen their messaging, amplify local organization, and counter the GOP’s momentum if they hope to preserve their foothold in Congress. The article ends by urging voters to remain informed and engaged, noting that the 2025 mid‑terms “could set the tone for the next decade of American politics.”