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Gaza Plan: Examining Feasibility Beyond Axios Leak

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. lan-examining-feasibility-beyond-axios-leak.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, March 17th 2026 at 14:34 GMT by The Telegraph
      Locales: UNITED STATES, ISRAEL, EGYPT

Beyond the Axios Leak: Examining the Feasibility of a Post-Conflict Gaza Plan

Recent reports, spearheaded by Axios, detailing a potential Gaza plan originating from the Trump administration - specifically allegedly drafted by Jared Kushner - have ignited a renewed cycle of debate and skepticism. While the leaked details paint a picture of Israeli settlement suspension, normalized relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and PA governance of Gaza contingent upon Hamas disarmament, a closer examination reveals a proposal deeply rooted in political calculation rather than pragmatic solution-building. Today, March 17th, 2026, it's crucial to move beyond the initial reactions and assess the long-term viability, or lack thereof, of such a plan, considering the evolving geopolitical landscape and the entrenched distrust amongst all key players.

The core of the proposed plan rests on a delicate, almost impossibly balanced, three-way dependency. Israel's commitment to halt settlement expansion - a move rarely undertaken consistently, even during periods of relative calm - is predicated on the reciprocal actions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These nations, in turn, are expected to normalize relations with Israel, a significant shift in regional dynamics, only if the Palestinian Authority (PA) successfully assumes control of Gaza, and only if Hamas relinquishes its armed resistance. This layered conditionality immediately exposes the fragility of the scheme.

The assumption that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would prioritize normalized relations over the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza is a fundamental flaw. While both nations have expressed interest in regional stability and economic partnership with Israel, ignoring the ongoing suffering and potential for continued conflict in Gaza would be a significant political risk. Domestic pressure within both countries, coupled with regional sensitivities, would likely outweigh the benefits of immediate diplomatic gains. The recent increase in regional instability - exemplified by continued Houthi attacks and broader Iranian influence - has further complicated the calculus for Saudi and Emirati leaders.

Furthermore, the plan fundamentally misunderstands the deep-seated animosity between Hamas and the PA. Years of political rivalry, exacerbated by differing ideologies and power struggles, have created an almost insurmountable chasm of distrust. Even assuming Hamas were willing to disarm - a significant ask given its stated commitment to Palestinian liberation - the PA lacks the legitimacy and capacity to effectively govern Gaza without widespread support from the population, something Hamas currently enjoys, even amidst criticism of its governance. Forcing a handover of power, even with international mediation, would likely lead to renewed conflict and instability.

The historical record offers little encouragement. Previous attempts at brokering peace deals, particularly those reliant on external guarantees and conditional agreements, have consistently faltered. The Oslo Accords, while initially promising, ultimately collapsed due to a lack of genuine commitment from all parties and the continued expansion of Israeli settlements. The Gaza disengagement in 2005, intended to create a pathway to peace, instead led to increased isolation and the rise of Hamas. These failures underscore the importance of addressing the underlying causes of the conflict - including the occupation, the blockade of Gaza, and the lack of Palestinian self-determination - rather than simply imposing a top-down solution.

The current context, two years after the initial leak, reveals a different reality. While the political landscape in the US has shifted, the core issues remain unchanged. Israel faces ongoing security challenges, the PA struggles with internal divisions and a loss of credibility, and Hamas remains a powerful force in Gaza. The potential for a wider regional conflict looms large, fueled by escalating tensions between Iran and its adversaries. This environment makes the implementation of a complex, multi-layered plan like the one reportedly proposed by Kushner even more improbable.

Instead of pursuing unrealistic and ultimately unsustainable schemes, a more effective approach would focus on immediate humanitarian relief, long-term economic development, and a renewed commitment to genuine negotiations based on international law and UN resolutions. This requires a fundamental shift in perspective - from viewing the conflict as a security problem to recognizing it as a political and humanitarian crisis requiring a comprehensive and inclusive solution. A solution that acknowledges the legitimate aspirations of all parties, addresses the root causes of the conflict, and prioritizes the well-being of the Palestinian people.