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Venezuela's Power Transition: Marquez Faces Tightrope Walk

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, February 20th 2026 at 9:23 GMT by Seattle Times
      Locales: VENEZUELA, UNITED STATES

CARACAS, Venezuela - The transfer of power in Venezuela from Juan Guaido to Enrique Marquez has ushered in a period of delicate maneuvering, fraught with internal and external pressures. Marquez, the newly appointed interim president, finds himself walking a tightrope between the cautious optimism of the United States and the entrenched resistance of the Nicolas Maduro-led government. The future of Venezuela, long marred by political and economic turmoil, hangs in the balance.

Juan Guaido's authority, once backed by the US and a coalition of nations, gradually eroded as his mandate expired, leaving a power vacuum that Marquez now attempts to fill. While Washington has expressed a guarded hope for a more representative government, this optimism is heavily contingent on concrete assurances of a genuinely democratic process. The Biden administration, through anonymous sources, has made it clear that mere promises are insufficient; demonstrable commitment to free, fair, and transparent elections is paramount.

However, the path to free elections is far from clear. Maduro and his loyalists, despite the shifting political landscape, remain deeply embedded within the Venezuelan state apparatus. They are actively engaged in efforts to undermine Marquez's transition, employing a range of tactics including disinformation campaigns, intimidation of opposition figures, and, according to reports, even localized violence. Tamara Suju of the Americas Institute highlights the systematic nature of this sabotage, suggesting a determined effort to maintain the status quo.

Marquez has publicly committed to holding presidential elections by the end of 2026 - a timeline that, while ambitious, is considered by many to be crucial for restoring democratic legitimacy. Yet, widespread skepticism permeates Venezuelan society. Maria Rodriguez, a teacher in Caracas, reflects the deep-seated distrust prevalent among the populace, voicing concerns that past electoral manipulations will be repeated. This lack of faith in the electoral process represents a significant hurdle for Marquez, as genuine democratic transition requires not just procedural fairness but also public confidence.

The US Conditionality and the Search for Leverage

The United States' stance is rooted in a long history of attempting to influence Venezuela's political trajectory. While outright intervention has been largely avoided, Washington has utilized economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure to encourage democratic reforms. The current approach, characterized by cautious engagement with Marquez, underscores a desire to see tangible progress without repeating the perceived failures of previous strategies. The US is likely seeking assurances regarding several key areas, including:

• Independent Electoral Commission: A truly independent body, free from government interference, to oversee the electoral process.
• Access for Opposition Candidates: Unfettered access for all legitimate opposition candidates to campaign, register voters, and participate in the elections.
• International Observation: The presence of international observers to ensure transparency and accountability.
• Release of Political Prisoners: The release of individuals imprisoned for political reasons, creating a more level playing field.

Meeting these conditions will be immensely challenging, given the Maduro government's entrenched power and its willingness to utilize any means necessary to remain in control. Marquez must skillfully navigate these demands, demonstrating a commitment to democratic principles while simultaneously seeking a path to neutralize the threats posed by Maduro loyalists.

Internal Challenges: Neutralizing Maduro's Loyalists

The presence of Maduro's loyalists within key government positions presents a formidable internal challenge. These individuals, accustomed to power and privilege, are unlikely to relinquish their control willingly. Marquez will need to employ a delicate strategy to dismantle their influence without triggering a wider conflict. Potential approaches could include:

• Negotiated Transitions: Offering incentives for loyalists to step down in exchange for guarantees of legal protection and future opportunities.
• Strategic Appointments: Replacing loyalists with technocrats and professionals committed to democratic principles.
• Security Sector Reform: Addressing the politicization of the military and security forces, ensuring their neutrality during the electoral process.
• Judicial Reform: Restoring the independence of the judiciary, allowing it to adjudicate disputes fairly and impartially.

A Delicate Balancing Act

As Carlos Trujillo, Venezuela's ambassador to the United States, aptly points out, Marquez faces a "delicate balancing act." He must appease the US by demonstrating a genuine commitment to democratic reform, while simultaneously managing the internal threats posed by Maduro's loyalists. Failure to strike this balance could lead to a deepening of the political crisis, potentially triggering further instability and violence. The road ahead is undoubtedly challenging, but the prospect of a peaceful and democratic transition in Venezuela remains a beacon of hope for a nation weary of conflict and hardship.