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Netanyahu's Pardon Gamble: A High-Stakes Test of Israel's Democracy

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, December 1st 2025 at 2:20 GMT by moneycontrol.com

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Netanyahu’s “Pardon Gamble” – What It Means for Israel’s Courts, Politics, and Wartime Leadership

In a climate of legal turbulence and a nation embroiled in a protracted war, Israeli politics has turned to an old but rarely used constitutional instrument – the presidential pardon. The term “pardon gamble” has come to describe the strategic calculations made by Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies as they seek to sidestep the consequences of a series of corruption convictions that have plagued the former prime minister’s career. As the presidential pardon looms over the next few weeks, the stakes are high: for Israel’s fragile judicial independence, the composition of the governing coalition, and the leadership required to navigate a complex security crisis.

The Legal Landscape

Netanyahu’s legal woes began in 2019, when the Israeli Attorney General’s office opened three separate criminal cases – “Case 1000” (bribery), “Case 2000” (fraud) and “Case 3000” (breach of trust). The investigations centered on alleged payments of gifts and cash to two media moguls in exchange for favorable coverage and, in the most sensational of the allegations, a promise to provide an Israeli citizen with a U.S. visa in exchange for an “advantageous” coverage of the 2020 elections.

In 2023, the Israeli Supreme Court – the apex of Israel’s judicial system – delivered a series of rulings that solidified Netanyahu’s culpability. The court found him guilty on all three charges and handed him a four‑year prison sentence. While the decision was not final – the defendant has the right to appeal – it represented an unprecedented moment: the country’s highest court had placed its former prime minister under a concrete legal sentence.

In a country where the balance between the judiciary, the legislature and the executive is delicate, the Supreme Court’s ruling has been a litmus test for the rule‑of‑law narrative that Israeli democracy is built upon. The court’s decisions were also seen as a check on the concentration of power that Netanyahu had, during his 12‑year tenure, cultivated in the state apparatus.

The President’s Pardon Power

The right to grant a pardon rests in the hands of Israel’s president – a largely ceremonial office in most parliamentary democracies – but with a significant constitutional twist. The president can grant a pardon, a reprieve or a commute on the advice of the cabinet, but he can also decide to withhold the decision, effectively blocking a pardon. Historically, Israeli presidents have rarely used this power, and when they have, it was typically for humanitarian reasons or to ease political tensions.

In early 2024, a small but vocal faction of Netanyahu’s supporters began to push the idea that the president could, and should, grant a pardon to the former prime minister. The argument was framed in terms of national stability: with Gaza still under fire, the war against Hamas, and the looming threat of a broader regional escalation, the argument went that Netanyahu’s experience and control of the military budget were indispensable.

The gamble is two‑fold. First, it bets that the president, who in his 2020 election ran on a platform of “security and law,” will feel compelled to offer a way out for the nation’s most seasoned wartime commander. Second, it bets that a pardon, once granted, will be respected by the political and judicial systems that were formed in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision. The stakes of this gamble are enormous: a pardon could be seen as a “clean‑up” of a legal scandal, or it could be perceived as a direct attack on the judiciary.

Political Implications

Netanyahu’s ability to influence Israeli politics has been a hallmark of his career. Even after being expelled from the Knesset in 2021, he retained a core base of support among religious parties and right‑wing voters. His coalition partners – notably the United Arab List and the National Union – rely on his leverage against the left‑leaning opposition.

A presidential pardon would dramatically shift the political calculus. By sidestepping the imprisonment that the Supreme Court had ordered, Netanyahu could return to the public eye and potentially regain a leadership role, whether as a kingmaker or as a prime ministerial contender. This would, however, cause friction within his coalition. Some partners, who were wary of a “charismatic but controversial” figure, might feel betrayed and either exit or renegotiate their positions. Moreover, the pardon would provide a rallying point for nationalist factions who see the judiciary as a political tool used against them.

In contrast, a refusal to grant the pardon would reinforce the narrative that Israel’s judiciary is impartial and that the rule of law is being upheld. It would also weaken Netanyahu’s political leverage, forcing him to seek alternative avenues for influence – such as endorsing new candidates or leveraging his media empire to shape public opinion.

Wartime Leadership Considerations

Israel’s war with Hamas is still in a state of fluidity. The question of who sits in the war room, who has the final say on air‑strikes, and how resources are allocated is critical. Netanyahu’s supporters argue that his experience, particularly in the realm of military procurement and intelligence, is a decisive advantage in this context. By offering a pardon, the president could be seen as ensuring continuity in war‑time leadership.

However, the reality of Israel’s political system means that the prime minister is not the sole decision‑maker. The Defense Minister, the Chief of Staff, and the Foreign Affairs Minister all play critical roles. A pardon would give Netanyahu a symbolic boost, but would not automatically place him back at the helm. Yet, the mere perception that he is “back in the game” could influence morale and strategic calculations, especially among factions that prefer a hard‑line stance.

It is also important to note that the current war has drawn global attention to Israel’s internal governance. International partners – from the United States to European allies – have expressed concern over domestic political instability. A presidential pardon that appears to sideline the judiciary could erode confidence among foreign donors and could be used by adversarial states as propaganda against Israel.

The Judicial Fallout

The Supreme Court’s decision was widely praised as a triumph for judicial independence. A presidential pardon that nullifies that decision would undoubtedly lead to a backlash from the legal community. Lawyers, academics, and the public might interpret it as a capitulation to political pressure, thereby eroding trust in the judiciary’s ability to hold even the highest officials accountable.

Furthermore, the courts might respond by tightening their scrutiny over future cases involving political figures. The “Netanyahu precedent” – that even a former prime minister can be prosecuted and convicted – will remain intact unless a pardon explicitly absolves all legal liabilities. In practice, most courts treat pardons as a form of clemency that does not erase the underlying criminal record; therefore, Netanyahu would still be bound by the conviction but would not be required to serve prison time.

The question remains: how will Israel’s political culture reconcile a pardon with its democratic institutions? Will the public view it as a necessary compromise, or will it be seen as a betrayal of the rule of law? The answer will shape the nation’s future for years to come.

Conclusion

Netanyahu’s pardon gamble is a high‑stakes experiment that intertwines Israel’s judiciary, its political system, and its war‑time strategy. For the courts, it is a test of their independence; for the coalition, a question of loyalty and strategy; for the war‑room, a question of continuity and effectiveness. The outcome will reverberate beyond Israel’s borders, affecting how the international community perceives Israeli governance and its commitment to democratic principles.

As the Israeli president weighs the options, the country watches closely. Whether the gamble pays off or backfires, it will undoubtedly leave an indelible mark on the fabric of Israeli democracy.