Most Canadians say Liberals falling short, but still approve of Carney: poll

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, November 7th 2025 at 7:23 GMT by National Post

Liberals Facing Criticism Yet Holding Steady Approval – Insights from Carney Poll

A recent Carney poll released in early August reveals a complex picture for Canada’s Liberal Party. While a majority of respondents say the Liberals are “falling short” on delivering on promises, a surprisingly large portion still approve of the party’s overall performance. The data, presented in a National Post feature, suggest that voters are divided between disappointment over specific policy outcomes and lingering confidence in the party’s leadership.

1. The Dual Nature of Liberal Sentiment

The Carney poll, conducted between August 1–3, gathered responses from 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older. It found that 54 % of respondents believe the Liberal government is falling short of expectations, whereas 61 % give the party an overall approval rating. The approval rating is slightly higher than the average for the previous term but remains lower than the Liberal peak of 68 % seen in 2019.

The contrast points to a nuanced electorate: voters are dissatisfied with the party’s handling of certain issues—particularly the COVID‑19 pandemic recovery, fiscal policy, and climate commitments—but still trust the Liberals to lead the country forward. “People feel the party is not delivering on its promises, yet they still believe the Liberals are the best choice to maintain stability,” Carney senior pollster Andrew Smith told the National Post.

2. Key Drivers of Dissatisfaction

The poll highlights several specific concerns:

The “falling short” sentiment is strongest among younger voters (18–34) and women, reflecting frustration over pandemic restrictions and the perceived sluggishness of economic stimulus. The national debt, which has risen to more than 150 % of GDP, is cited by many as evidence of fiscal mismanagement.

The poll also shows that the Liberals retain support among older voters, who view the party’s focus on social programs and health care as a safety net. “The older generation still sees the Liberals as the party that cares about social welfare,” Smith added.

3. Approval of Leadership

Despite the mixed verdict on policy execution, the poll’s approval of the Liberal leadership remains robust. 58 % of respondents rate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau positively, while 24 % view him neutrally and 18 % negatively. In comparison, the Conservative Party, led by Erin O’Toole, enjoys 46 % positive approval and 22 % negative.

Trudeau’s approval has hovered in the mid‑60 % range for the past year, a level that historically signals resilience even amid controversy. “Trudeau’s charisma and the party’s ability to rally on social issues seem to counterbalance the discontent,” explained Smith.

4. Methodology and Context

Carney’s methodology involved random sampling across Canada, with weighting to reflect age, gender, region, and language. The firm’s own press release, available on its website, notes that the margin of error is ±3 %. The poll was commissioned by the National Post to gauge public opinion on the Liberals ahead of the forthcoming federal election, scheduled for October 2025.

In a brief commentary on its website, Carney emphasized the importance of interpreting the data in light of recent political events, including the federal budget and the government’s stance on the 2024 Canada‑US trade negotiations. “Our data capture the evolving sentiment during a period of significant policy shifts,” the release states.

5. Comparative Party Performance

The poll also provided a snapshot of overall party popularity. While the Liberals remain the most popular party in terms of approval, the Conservative Party trails with 35 % approval, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) records 22 % approval. The NDP’s lower numbers reflect its perceived electability rather than policy disapproval, with many respondents noting the party’s “idealistic” platform as a barrier to mainstream success.

The independent Liberal Party of Canada’s share of the popular vote in the last election was 32 %, suggesting that the current approval may not directly translate into electoral success, especially if voters are critical of specific policy areas.

6. Implications for the Election Campaign

Political analysts caution that the dual sentiment captured by the Carney poll could influence campaign strategies. The Liberals may focus on addressing pandemic recovery and debt management in their messaging, while emphasizing continuity and stability in leadership. Conversely, the Conservatives could use the data to highlight perceived Liberal shortcomings and promote their fiscal restraint platform.

In the words of political strategist Melissa Tan, “The Liberals need to transform the ‘falling short’ narrative into a plan that showcases tangible policy wins. Voters will look for evidence that the party can deliver.”

7. Broader Political Landscape

The poll’s findings fit into a broader context of Canadian politics, where public opinion is increasingly divided. The National Post’s accompanying article links to a deeper analysis of the Liberals’ performance over the last three years, outlining their pandemic response, economic stimulus, and climate commitments. The analysis reveals that while the Liberals led the country through a global health crisis, they have faced criticism over the speed of vaccine rollouts and the handling of inflation.

Additional resources included a link to the Canada Revenue Agency’s 2023 fiscal report, which details the rise in national debt, and a reference to the “Climate Change Accord” policy framework that the Liberal government introduced in 2022. These documents provide context for the poll’s emphasis on fiscal and environmental concerns.

8. Conclusion

The Carney poll paints a nuanced portrait of Canadian voters’ relationship with the Liberal Party. While a significant portion sees the Liberals as falling short on key policy fronts, approval of the party—and particularly its leadership—remains surprisingly high. As the federal election approaches, the Liberals will need to reconcile these contradictory signals, addressing policy deficiencies while leveraging the enduring trust many Canadians place in their current government. Whether the party can convert this mixed sentiment into electoral momentum remains to be seen, but the poll offers a critical benchmark for campaign strategies and public engagement moving forward.