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Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra faces a political reckoning as Pheu Thai reels

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, September 4th 2025 at 14:10 GMT by socastsrm.com
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Thaksin Shinawatra’s Shadow Casts a New Reckoning on Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party

The political landscape in Thailand has entered a precarious phase. As the country prepares for a major general election, the once‑dominant Pheu Thai party—rooted in the legacy of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra—finds itself grappling with declining support, internal fractures, and the looming specter of the monarchy’s disapproval. An article published by SocratesRM on 4 September 2025 lays out the unfolding crisis, illustrating how Thaksin’s influence continues to shape Thai politics even after a decade of exile.

The Thaksin Legacy and the Birth of Pheu Thai

Thaksin, who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, was ousted by a military coup that was later justified by the Constitutional Court as a "constitutional crisis." He was convicted of corruption in absentia, and his family fled to the United States. The political vacuum he left behind gave rise to the Thai Rak Thai party, which was eventually dissolved. Its members regrouped under the banner of Pheu Thai ("Thailand for People") in 2010, carrying Thaksin’s populist platform of rural subsidies, free‑market reforms, and a focus on the lower‑income bracket.

Pheu Thai quickly cemented itself as a formidable opposition force. It became a partner in a coalition that elected former Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as prime minister in 2008 and later joined the coalition that installed former Royal Thai Police chief, Somchai Wongnapap, in 2014. Despite the coups and the military’s repeated intervention, the party’s brand of "people‑first" policy kept it at the center of Thai politics.

The 2023 By‑Election Collapse

The most recent blow came from a series of by‑elections in 2023, where Pheu Thai suffered a stunning defeat in several key provinces. According to poll data released by the National Election Commission, the party’s share of the popular vote fell from a historic 45 % in 2019 to 22 % in the by‑elections—an almost 30‑point drop. The losses were most pronounced in the central and northern provinces, traditionally considered the party’s strongholds.

Political analysts point to a mix of factors: a perception that Pheu Thai’s promises of infrastructure and subsidies are no longer feasible in a country with a dwindling public debt; the rising influence of a new generation of politicians who promise to distance themselves from Thaksin’s legacy; and an increasing sense of wariness among voters about the party’s close ties to the monarchy and the military. The article quotes a senior member of the Constitutional Court, who noted that Pheu Thai’s leadership is under pressure to "reform" its image to align with the monarchy’s insistence on stability.

Thaksin’s Political Reckoning

Despite living in exile, Thaksin’s influence has never waned entirely. In the SocratesRM piece, former Pheu Thai members of parliament and senior advisors are quoted as saying that the party’s policy direction is still “influenced by Thaksin’s vision of a people‑centric state.” However, the leadership now faces a crucial decision: whether to continue aligning with the Thaksin legacy or pivot toward a fresh platform that can appeal to a broader electorate.

The article references a recent press conference where Pheu Thai’s new president, Suttidorn Suwan, openly criticized Thaksin’s past controversies, arguing that the party must “rebrand” to move past the “political echo chamber.” Yet, even Suttidorn acknowledges that abandoning Thaksin’s principles entirely could alienate the core base that has supported the party for years.

This internal tug‑of‑war has spurred rumors of a potential alliance with the newly emerging Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by former central bank governor Pita Limjaroenrat. A coalition could provide a more centrist platform that merges Pheu Thai’s populist appeal with a commitment to transparent governance—a strategy the article suggests might “cure the party’s political debt.”

The Monarchy and Military’s Role

Thailand’s constitutional monarchy, with King Maha Chakkraphat at its helm, has historically maintained a watchful stance over political factions. In 2024, a royal commission released a report condemning political parties that “exceed the bounds of democratic conduct,” and the report singled out Pheu Thai for potential breaches of national unity. The monarchy’s influence, coupled with the 2014 military coup’s lingering memory, has made Thai voters increasingly cautious about parties with perceived military or monarchical ties.

The article notes that the military’s caretaker government, which oversaw the 2024 parliamentary election, explicitly demanded “increased transparency” and “strict adherence to democratic norms” from all parties. Pheu Thai’s leadership has responded by promising to cooperate fully with the military’s oversight body—yet the decision has raised questions about the party’s true independence.

Looking Ahead: The 2025 General Election

With the general election slated for November, Pheu Thai’s political reckoning is far from over. The party’s future hinges on a series of strategic choices: redefining its policy platform to resonate with a post‑COVID generation, forging alliances that can counter the DPP’s centrist appeal, and navigating the monarchy’s expectations. The SocratesRM piece concludes with a stark observation: “If Pheu Thai cannot rewrite its narrative, it risks becoming an anachronism in Thailand’s rapidly evolving political theater.”

In a country where political fortunes can pivot on a single scandal or a sudden shift in public opinion, Thaksin Shinawatra’s enduring shadow may either prove a catalyst for renewal or a lingering anchor that keeps Pheu Thai mired in the past. The next election will be the decisive arena in which this legacy is tested.