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Arizona Senate Race Tightens: Lake's Lead Shrinks

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, February 27th 2026 at 0:09 GMT by The Center Square
      Locales: Arizona, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, UNITED STATES

PHOENIX, AZ - February 27th, 2026 - The race to determine who will challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in November is rapidly intensifying, with a newly released poll indicating a tightening contest in the Arizona Republican Senate primary. The poll, conducted by RMG Research and Shaw & Co. Consulting, reveals that Kari Lake, a prominent figure in the MAGA movement, maintains a narrow lead over tech entrepreneur and Peter Thiel-backed Blake Masters, but the gap is demonstrably closing.

With the primary election scheduled for August 2nd, the stakes are exceptionally high. Arizona has emerged as a critical battleground state in recent election cycles, and control of this Senate seat could significantly impact the balance of power in Washington. Senator Kelly, widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents facing re-election, presents a tempting target for Republican challengers.

The latest numbers show Lake garnering 33% of support amongst likely Republican primary voters, while Masters has climbed to 27%. While Lake has consistently led in previous polling data, Masters' recent surge indicates a growing appeal, particularly amongst voters prioritizing a candidate aligned with the "America First" agenda. A substantial 23% remain undecided, suggesting the race is far from settled and that both candidates have ample opportunity to sway these voters in the coming months.

The poll, based on a sample of 627 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +-3.9 percentage points, also sheds light on the importance of former President Donald Trump's influence within the Arizona Republican electorate. A significant 46% of voters indicated that Trump's endorsement is "very important" to their decision, while an additional 27% consider it "somewhat important." Only 27% stated it was "not important," demonstrating the continued grip Trump holds over the party base.

Furthermore, the survey reveals that a commanding 64% of likely Republican voters explicitly desire a candidate who will wholeheartedly embrace Trump's policies. This finding underscores the ideological landscape of the Arizona Republican primary: the more closely a candidate aligns with Trump's platform, the more likely they are to resonate with voters.

This dynamic presents a fascinating clash between Lake and Masters. Lake has built her campaign almost entirely on unwavering loyalty to Trump, frequently echoing his rhetoric and claims of a stolen election. She's consistently painted herself as the true inheritor of the Trump movement, a powerful message in a state where Trump continues to be highly popular. Her background as a former television news anchor provides her with strong communication skills and a natural ability to connect with voters, particularly through media appearances. However, her sometimes inflammatory rhetoric has also drawn criticism and could alienate moderate voters in the general election.

Masters, on the other hand, while also supportive of Trump, presents a different profile. Backed by the financial and intellectual clout of Peter Thiel, he emphasizes themes of technological disruption, border security, and a rejection of "woke" culture. This appeals to a segment of the Republican base concerned with issues beyond traditional Trump messaging. Thiel's support provides Masters with a significant financial advantage, allowing him to run a sophisticated campaign and reach voters through various channels. However, Masters faces the challenge of establishing himself as a credible conservative in the eyes of voters already captivated by Lake's more direct connection to Trump.

The coming months will likely see both candidates intensifying their efforts to court Trump's endorsement and appeal to this crucial segment of the electorate. Strategists predict a potentially brutal primary battle, characterized by negative advertising and increasingly sharp attacks. The winner will need not only to consolidate the Trump base but also to demonstrate the ability to appeal to independent and swing voters in the general election, a task that will be significantly complicated by the increasingly polarized political climate.

Beyond the primary, the implications of this race extend far beyond Arizona. A strong Republican candidate, fueled by Trump's influence and a mobilized base, poses a serious threat to Senator Kelly. The outcome in Arizona will undoubtedly be closely watched by both parties as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections and a crucial indicator of the future direction of American politics.