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Montana Senate Race Facing 'Horrible' Prospects, Expert Warns

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, February 13th 2026 at 1:36 GMT by Semafor
      Locales: Montana, Washington, District of Columbia, UNITED STATES

Washington D.C. - February 13th, 2026 - A chilling assessment from a seasoned political strategist is casting a long shadow over Montana's hotly contested Senate race. Jim Messina, former advisor to ex-Democratic Senator Max Baucus and campaign manager for President Barack Obama, delivered a blunt critique of Senator Jon Tester's re-election prospects, suggesting the campaign is currently on a path to defeat. Speaking on CNN's 'The Lead' with Jake Tapper, Messina described Tester's chances as "horrible," citing a critical messaging failure.

Messina's warning comes at a pivotal moment as the November election draws closer, and Democrats find themselves playing defense in several key Senate races across the country. Montana, alongside states like Ohio and Arizona, represents a significant challenge for the party, requiring a delicate balance of appealing to a diverse electorate while navigating deeply ingrained conservative tendencies.

The core of Messina's criticism lies in the Democratic campaign's apparent focus on issues he believes are failing to resonate with Montana voters. He pinpointed the consistent emphasis on former President Donald Trump and abortion rights as key missteps. "They're talking about Trump and abortion," Messina stated. "That's not what's important to the people of Montana." He argues that these national-level talking points distract from the economic concerns that dominate the minds of Montanans.

Instead, Messina advocates for a shift in strategy, urging the Tester campaign to prioritize kitchen-table issues. "They need to be talking about - how are you going to lower the cost of groceries? How are you going to make sure that farmers can get a fair price for their products?" This focus on economic realities, particularly those impacting rural communities and the agricultural sector, is seen as crucial for regaining ground with voters who feel overlooked by Washington D.C.

The race pits Senator Tester, a three-term incumbent with a reputation for independent thinking, against Tim Sheehy, a businessman and decorated Navy SEAL veteran. Tester, 65, has built a career on appealing to Montana's pragmatic streak, often breaking with party lines to support policies benefiting the state. However, Messina suggests that even Tester's established record may not be enough to overcome the current messaging deficiencies.

Sheehy, at 35, represents a new generation of Republican leadership. His military background and entrepreneurial experience are expected to appeal to a segment of the Montana electorate eager for a fresh perspective. He's already framing Tester as a "Washington insider" disconnected from the concerns of everyday Montanans, a narrative that could gain traction if the campaign continues to focus on national controversies rather than local issues.

The economic challenges facing Montana are substantial. The state, while boasting stunning natural beauty and a growing tourism sector, is grappling with rising inflation, particularly impacting the cost of food and essential goods. The agricultural industry, a cornerstone of the state's economy, is facing pressures from fluctuating commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Farmers and ranchers are demanding concrete solutions, not ideological debates.

Furthermore, Montana's unique political landscape demands a nuanced approach. The state has a strong libertarian streak, with voters valuing self-reliance and limited government intervention. While social issues like abortion can be divisive, economic concerns consistently rank higher in voter priorities. Democrats hoping to succeed in Montana must demonstrate a clear understanding of these priorities and offer tangible solutions to the challenges facing the state.

The coming months will be critical for both campaigns. The Tester team must decide whether to heed Messina's advice and recalibrate its messaging, or risk continuing down a path that could lead to a significant loss. For Sheehy, the challenge lies in solidifying his support base and presenting a compelling vision for Montana's future. The outcome of this race will not only determine the balance of power in the Senate but also serve as a bellwether for the Democratic Party's ability to compete in conservative states in the years to come.