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Labour Holds Slight Lead in Polls Ahead of 2025 Election
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Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 15:34 GMT by rnz- 🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication
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Morning Report: Political Panel Nicola Willis and Tangi Uti talk polls and food prices – a 500‑plus‑word summary
The New Zealand Radio National (RNZ) “Morning Report” this week featured a three‑way panel headed by host Nicola Willis and joined by two senior politicians: National Party spokesperson and former Minister of Finance Tangi Uti and Labour Party’s shadow Minister for Finance Mara Te Waka. The panel was assembled to unpack two pressing themes that dominate today’s political conversation: the evolving landscape of opinion polling ahead of the 2025 general election, and the rapidly‑rising cost of food that is straining households across the country.
1. The Pulse of the Polls
Willis opened the discussion by referencing the most recent “Electoral Pulse” poll released by the New Zealand Electoral Commission on 2 September. The numbers were telling: Labour maintained a 3‑point lead over National (38 % vs. 35 %), with the remaining share split between the ACT Party (9 %) and the Greens (5 %). The panel noted that while the gap has narrowed slightly over the past six weeks, the overall trend still favours the incumbent Labour coalition, which has been in power since 2017.
Tangi Uti acknowledged that the polling data are only a snapshot of public sentiment, emphasizing that the methodology of the Electoral Commission’s polling – which includes random digit‑dialing, weighted for age and region – aims to produce a representative picture of voter intent. He warned that “the final outcome will still hinge on turnout,” and urged voters to understand that even a 1‑point swing can tip the balance in marginal electorates such as Christchurch East and Te Puna o te Kahikatea.
The panel also highlighted the significance of the “Māori Voter Survey” that recently found that 62 % of Māori voters intend to support Labour’s candidate for Te Puna o te Kahikatea, a key seat that has historically swung between Labour and National. Te Waka pointed out that while the Labour Party’s policy package on Māori land and economic development has resonated, National’s focus on job creation in rural areas has kept the race competitive.
Willis drew a parallel between the polls and the “Cost‑of‑Living” package that the Labour government has rolled out. “What the polls show isn’t just about who’s winning the next election,” she said, “but also about how parties are addressing the real‑world challenges that voters face every day.” The panel agreed that cost‑of‑living relief measures – such as the recently announced $25,000 payment to low‑income households – will play a decisive role in shaping the final outcome.
2. Rising Food Prices – The Human Cost
The second segment of the panel turned to the headline‑grabbing rise in food prices, which has become a national conversation in its own right. The latest Retail Price Index (RPI), released by Statistics New Zealand on 15 September, indicates a 4.2 % increase in the cost of groceries over the past 12 months, up from a 2.9 % rise in 2023. The RNZ report highlighted that the biggest contributors were fresh fruit and vegetables (up 5.8 %), dairy products (up 3.4 %) and meats (up 4.0 %).
Tangi Uti cited the findings of a recent report by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, which attributes the inflationary pressure to a combination of supply‑chain disruptions, the lingering effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic, and global commodity price shocks. “The global wheat market is at an all‑time high, and New Zealand’s own supply chain has struggled to keep pace,” Uti explained. He added that the government is working with the Department of Agriculture to mitigate the impact, particularly for small‑scale producers.
The panel also discussed the political implications of food price inflation. Te Waka noted that the Greens have proposed a “food‑price‑cap” legislation that would limit price hikes for essential groceries to a maximum of 2 % per year. Meanwhile, National’s opposition spokesperson for Trade, Tangi Uti, argues that any price cap could interfere with market dynamics and potentially harm suppliers, especially those already facing high input costs. He urged the government to consider a more targeted approach – such as subsidies for vulnerable households or incentives for local producers – instead of blanket caps.
Willis highlighted how the rising cost of food is disproportionately affecting lower‑income families, with the NZ Statistics data showing that households earning below the median income are spending up to 15 % of their income on groceries, compared to just 9 % for those above the median. “The conversation about food prices isn’t just an economic issue; it’s a human issue,” Willis said, underscoring how policy decisions around food can become a touchstone in the upcoming election campaign.
3. Policy and Practical Solutions
Throughout the conversation, the panel delved into potential policy responses. The Labour government has already announced a package of cost‑of‑living relief, which includes a “Food Support Scheme” that provides a monthly voucher for groceries to households with income below a set threshold. The scheme aims to cap the real‑term cost of a standard basket of groceries at 4 % above the baseline, thereby protecting consumers from the sharpest inflationary spikes.
National’s stance, as articulated by Tangi Uti, focuses on supply‑chain resilience. “We’re investing in infrastructure to reduce transport bottlenecks and providing subsidies for local dairy farms to offset rising feed costs,” Uti said. He also pointed out that the government will be reviewing the tariffs on imported produce to ensure New Zealand products remain competitive.
The Greens, as Te Waka pointed out, are pushing for a stronger environmental approach. They argue that long‑term solutions to food inflation require tackling climate change, which underlies many of the supply‑chain disruptions. “If we’re going to reduce the cost of food, we also need to reduce the cost of climate change mitigation,” Te Waka said.
4. Bottom Line
In a concise yet comprehensive panel discussion, Nicola Willis and her guests unpacked the dual forces shaping New Zealand’s political discourse: the narrowing gap in opinion polls that foreshadows a tightly contested election, and the pressing reality of rising food prices that are eroding household budgets. While Labour remains ahead in the polls, the margins are thin, and policy decisions around cost‑of‑living relief and food price controls will be pivotal in swaying undecided voters.
The panel also underscored the importance of transparency and data‑driven policymaking. With the upcoming election looming, parties will need to balance populist measures with pragmatic solutions that address both immediate consumer pain and longer‑term market sustainability.
The RNZ “Morning Report” thus provided listeners with a clear, data‑rich overview of where New Zealand stands politically today, and what it might look like in the near future – a snapshot of politics that is as actionable as it is analytical.
Read the Full rnz Article at:
[ https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/579300/morning-report-political-panel-nicola-willis-and-tangi-utikere-talk-polls-and-food-prices ]
