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Norway's ruling Labour seen winning re-election

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 8th 2025 at 16:00 GMT by reuters.com
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Norway’s 2025 election: Labour’s commanding lead points to another term for Prime Minister Støre

In a political landscape that has been remarkably stable for more than a decade, Norway’s next parliamentary election, slated for 13 September 2025, is shaping up to be a straightforward victory for the ruling Social Democratic Labour Party. A recent Reuters poll, conducted by the Norwegian polling firm Ipsos, shows Labour comfortably ahead of the opposition coalition, a result that bolsters Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s chances of retaining his seat at the top of the country’s political hierarchy.

The numbers that matter

According to the Ipsos survey released on 8 September, Labour is standing at 34 % of the vote, a level that would secure them 111 seats out of 169 in the Storting – the Norwegian parliament. Støre’s coalition partner, the centrist Centre Party (Senterpartiet), is expected to capture roughly 12 % of the vote, which would translate into about 30 seats. Together, the two parties would hold a comfortable majority of 141 seats.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the centre‑right opposition is split between several parties that have historically struggled to present a unified front. The Conservative Party (Høyre) sits at 21 %, the populist Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) at 18 %, the Liberal Party (Venstre) at 16 %, and the Socialist Left (SV) at a mere 4 %. These figures would give the opposition bloc a combined tally of 71 seats – far short of the majority threshold.

The stark gap in the polls mirrors the 2021 election outcome, where Labour again won a majority of 108 seats, and the opposition captured 61 seats. Støre’s government, which was re‑elected in 2021, has largely stayed on course, pursuing a mix of environmental ambitions and social welfare expansions that have resonated with a broad swath of voters.

Why Labour’s lead matters

The Labour Party’s dominance in the polls is not just a statistical curiosity; it carries significant policy implications. The Støre administration has been under fire from the opposition for its handling of Norway’s climate agenda, especially in light of the global push for net‑zero emissions and the domestic debate over nuclear energy. Labour’s continued majority would allow the government to maintain its trajectory toward a greener economy, backed by a robust welfare state and investment in public infrastructure.

Moreover, Labour’s coalition with the Centre Party has kept the nation’s political equilibrium stable. The Centre Party’s emphasis on rural interests and decentralization complements Labour’s focus on social equality, giving the coalition a broad base of support across Norway’s varied geography. Støre’s ability to manage the partnership has proven a key factor in the party’s sustained popularity.

The opposition’s challenges

The opposition coalition faces a number of obstacles that could hamper any attempt to unseat Labour. First, the parties are ideologically diverse, ranging from the socially conservative Høyre to the populist, tax‑cutting Progress Party. Such differences make it difficult to formulate a cohesive platform that can appeal to the same voters who lean towards Labour’s centrist policies.

Second, the opposition’s internal friction has become apparent. Recent news reports (see Reuters coverage of the opposition’s 2023 parliamentary debate) highlight disagreements over immigration policy and the handling of Norway’s petroleum sector. These divisions could translate into a fragmented message that is hard to convey to the electorate.

Finally, Støre’s personal popularity has proven to be a considerable handicap for the opposition. In a separate Reuters poll conducted in January 2025, 68 % of respondents said they trusted Støre to run the country effectively. The public’s perception that Støre is a competent, steady leader stands in stark contrast to the opposition’s portrayal of themselves as either too radical or too cautious.

Broader implications for Norway’s political climate

The outcome of the 2025 election will likely be seen as a referendum on the current government's approach to balancing Norway’s environmental commitments with its legacy as a major oil exporter. If Labour retains its majority, the country could pursue a more ambitious climate transition strategy, potentially including increased investment in green hydrogen and electrification of the transport sector. An opposition win, on the other hand, could lead to a shift in policy toward more immediate economic growth priorities, possibly at the expense of some climate goals.

In addition to the environmental stakes, the election will also be a test of how well Norway’s parliamentary democracy can accommodate an increasingly diverse electorate. The Labour Party’s support across different regions – from the capital city of Oslo to the remote northern municipalities – suggests that the party is still able to build bridges between disparate demographic groups.

Looking ahead

While the polls are clear in favour of Labour, elections are rarely decided on a single day. The opposition will work to galvanise their base, sharpen their messaging around key issues such as climate policy and welfare reform, and attempt to exploit any missteps by the ruling coalition. Meanwhile, the Labour Party will likely continue to emphasize its track record in delivering social reforms and its leadership on climate initiatives.

Whatever the final tally, the 2025 election will underscore Norway’s robust political system, which allows for peaceful transitions and a clear reflection of public sentiment. For now, however, the evidence suggests that Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will likely keep his post and continue steering Norway on its current policy path.