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California Politics 2026: Six Key Stories to Watch

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, January 3rd 2026 at 11:47 GMT by Los Angeles Times
      Locale: California, UNITED STATES

California’s Political Landscape: Six Stories to Watch in 2026 (and Beyond) - A Summary from the LA Times

The January 3rd edition of the Los Angeles Times' "LA on Record" newsletter, penned by Mark Barabak, offers a sobering and insightful look at six key political storylines poised to dominate California’s landscape leading up to – and beyond – the pivotal 2026 election. Rather than focusing solely on immediate campaign dynamics, Barabak paints a picture of underlying shifts in power, policy debates, and demographic realities that will shape the state's future for years to come. The piece emphasizes that while 2026 is the next major electoral milestone (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, superintendent of public instruction), the seeds of these battles are being sown now.

1. Gavin Newsom’s Shadow and the Succession Question: The most immediate and pervasive theme is the lingering influence of Governor Gavin Newsom. While he'll be term-limited in 2027, his impact will continue to reverberate. Barabak highlights that Newsom has cultivated a national profile, positioning himself as a progressive counterweight to Republican policies, but this also creates a complex dynamic within California. The question isn’t just who will succeed him, but how they'll navigate the expectations and legacy he leaves behind. Several potential successors are already emerging – Attorney General Rob Bonta, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kousoulos, and potentially even Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass – but each faces challenges in defining themselves outside of Newsom’s considerable shadow. The newsletter notes that a candidate too closely tied to Newsom risks alienating voters seeking change, while one who distances themselves too far might be perceived as lacking experience or vision. The article points out the inherent difficulty in breaking free from a popular and powerful predecessor.

2. The Housing Crisis: A Persistent Political Liability: California’s housing crisis remains a central political problem, consistently fueling frustration and impacting affordability across the state. Barabak emphasizes that despite various legislative efforts (including Senate Bill 9 and other density-boosting measures), progress has been slow and uneven. The issue isn't just about building more units; it's about addressing zoning regulations, NIMBYism ("Not In My Backyard" opposition), and ensuring affordability for a range of income levels. The political fallout is significant: incumbent politicians face voter anger over rising rents and home prices, while challengers often capitalize on this discontent. The newsletter suggests that the 2026 election will likely see renewed calls for radical housing reform, potentially leading to contentious debates about local control versus state mandates – a recurring battleground in California politics.

3. The Shifting Sands of Public Safety: Following years of debate and policy shifts surrounding criminal justice reform, public safety remains a volatile political issue. The rise in visible crime (though statistics are complex and often debated) has fueled calls for tougher law enforcement policies, creating tension with those advocating for continued reforms. Barabak notes that this dynamic is particularly pronounced in Los Angeles County, where District Attorney George Gascón’s progressive approach has faced significant pushback. The 2026 election could see a renewed focus on crime and punishment, potentially leading to challenges against incumbent officials perceived as being too lenient. The article references the ongoing debate about Proposition 47 (which reclassified some felonies as misdemeanors) and its potential impact on crime rates – a key point of contention for both sides of the issue.

4. The Budget Blues: Navigating Economic Uncertainty: California's seemingly endless budget surpluses have evaporated, leaving state leaders facing difficult choices about spending cuts and tax increases. Barabak points out that this fiscal reality will significantly constrain the next governor’s ability to pursue ambitious policy initiatives. The newsletter highlights the potential for political battles over funding priorities – education, healthcare, climate change mitigation – as lawmakers grapple with a leaner budget. The economic downturn also creates an opportunity for Republicans to challenge the Democratic dominance of state politics by emphasizing fiscal responsibility and arguing against excessive spending.

5. The Demographic Shift: The Rise of Asian American Voters: California’s electorate is undergoing significant demographic changes, particularly with the growing political influence of Asian American voters. Barabak notes that this group is increasingly diverse in terms of ethnicity, language, and political views, making it a crucial voting bloc for any candidate seeking statewide office. While traditionally leaning Democratic, there's evidence of increasing fragmentation within the Asian American community, with some segments expressing concerns about issues like crime, education, and economic opportunity. Understanding and engaging this evolving electorate will be critical for success in 2026 and beyond. The article references previous reporting on the complexities of Asian American political alignment.

6. The Republican Party’s Identity Crisis: Perhaps the most significant long-term storyline is the ongoing struggle within the California Republican Party to redefine its identity and relevance. Barabak argues that the party faces a fundamental challenge: how to appeal to a diverse electorate while maintaining its conservative principles. The rise of Donald Trump has exacerbated these divisions, with some Republicans embracing his populist message while others seek a more moderate path. The newsletter suggests that the Republican Party’s ability to attract younger voters and minority groups will be crucial for its long-term survival – a daunting task given California's political landscape.

In conclusion, the "LA on Record" newsletter paints a complex picture of California politics, highlighting not just immediate electoral battles but also underlying trends and challenges that will shape the state’s future. The 2026 election is presented as a critical inflection point, but the groundwork for its outcome is being laid now through policy debates, demographic shifts, and the ongoing struggle to define California's identity in an increasingly polarized nation. The article serves as a valuable reminder that understanding these long-term trends is essential for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of California politics.