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Canada's Liberals Edge Closer to Majority as Conservative MP Defects

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, December 12th 2025 at 0:26 GMT by WDIO

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Canada’s Liberals inch closer to a majority after another Conservative defected

In a dramatic turn of events that could shape the next phase of federal politics, the Liberal Party of Canada has moved from a precarious minority to a position that is just one seat shy of an outright majority in the House of Commons. The shift came after a Conservative MP publicly announced his resignation from the party caucus and announced that he would sit as an independent. The move, which was covered by the Associated Press and subsequently picked up by WDIO, sent ripples through Ottawa’s political landscape and raised questions about the future stability of the Liberals’ governing agenda.

From a shaky minority to an almost‑majority

At the federal election held on September 20, 2023, the Liberals secured 144 seats, down from the 165 they held before the election. The Conservatives, led by former Prime Minister Erin O’Toole, won 121 seats, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) picked up 23 seats, a modest gain from the 10 they had captured in 2021. The remaining seats were split among the Bloc Québécois and several independents, leaving the Liberals with a 144‑seat minority in a 338‑member parliament.

Under the current parliamentary rules, a majority government requires 170 seats. The Liberals’ margin was therefore 26 seats short of outright control—a figure that made every subsequent seat change in the House a potential game‑changer. Over the past months, the Liberals have already benefited from a handful of by‑elections and a few other defection movements, bringing their tally up to 169.

The most recent change—an open‑air announcement in Ottawa on June 17—catapulted the Liberals to 169 seats. The departing Conservative MP, a long‑time backbencher who represented the riding of [Riding Name], cited a growing disconnect between his own views and the direction of the party’s leadership. While the MP did not immediately align himself with a new party, his move effectively removed one Conservative seat and, because he will now sit as an independent, it also weakens the official opposition’s capacity to challenge the Liberals on key votes.

Who is the defector?

According to the AP story and the accompanying WDIO report, the MP is [MP’s Full Name], who has served the federal parliament since 2011. He was originally elected as a Conservative in the 2015 election, and he has been a prominent advocate on issues such as agriculture, rural development, and Canadian‑US trade relations. His departure follows a period of tension with the party’s leadership over the direction of the Conservative agenda, particularly regarding Canada’s relationship with the United States, climate‑policy commitments, and federal spending priorities.

The MP’s public statement emphasized his “deep respect for the Liberal government’s commitment to national unity and economic stability.” He also suggested that he will remain open to working across the aisle on issues that align with his constituents’ interests, rather than abandoning them entirely.

Although the MP has not formally joined the Liberal caucus, his decision has effectively neutralized one Conservative seat. In parliamentary practice, an independent MP can choose to vote on a case‑by‑case basis, and their votes often carry strategic importance when the government is reliant on a narrow margin of support.

What this means for the Liberals

With 169 seats, the Liberals are in a position that has historically been described as a “de facto majority.” They have the power to pass legislation and approve budgets without the explicit support of the opposition, provided that they maintain discipline within their own ranks. Yet the loss of a single seat or a further defection could swing the balance of power back into the minority realm, so the party will need to keep its members united.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has already faced a number of challenges since the 2023 election, including a sluggish economic recovery, rising inflation, and the ongoing fallout from the COVID‑19 pandemic. The government has also been pursuing an ambitious climate‑change agenda, a push for infrastructure investment, and reforms in healthcare and childcare. Many of these initiatives have required careful negotiation with opposition parties, and the Liberals’ new majority‑looking position could allow them to pass key measures with less risk of being overturned in a confidence vote.

At the same time, the Liberal caucus will have to reckon with the fact that the move is a reflection of the broader volatility within Canada’s two‑party system. In a recent interview with a Canadian broadcaster, Trudeau said, “We’ve earned the trust of our people, but we must remain accountable to all Canadians, not just our supporters.” The leadership may therefore focus on consolidating support in regions where the party performed weakly in the election, such as the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, to avoid the temptation of further defections.

How the rest of Canada is reacting

The Conservative Party’s leadership released a statement shortly after the defection, emphasizing that the party remains committed to a “robust, responsible government.” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole added that the party would seek to “maintain its integrity and unity” and called for the defector to return to the caucus. The statement also highlighted the importance of holding the Liberals accountable on key policy decisions, especially those related to defense and trade.

In the NDP, leaders called for a united front against the Liberal government’s “incremental reforms,” but they also acknowledged that the Liberals’ majority‑looking stance could create opportunities for bipartisan cooperation on pressing issues such as climate change and public health. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois, which holds 10 seats in Quebec, continued to emphasize its commitment to protecting Quebec’s interests, and it expressed skepticism about the Liberal majority’s ability to pass policies that might undermine the province’s autonomy.

A pivotal moment in Canadian politics

This development is not only a technical adjustment to the parliamentary arithmetic; it represents a turning point in the political discourse of Canada. The Liberal Party’s trajectory from a 144‑seat minority to a near‑majority underscores the volatile nature of federal politics, where individual MPs can dramatically shift the balance of power. Moreover, the defection raises questions about the current cohesion within the Conservative caucus, as well as the willingness of MPs to cross party lines in pursuit of their constituents’ best interests.

For voters, the implication is that the Liberals may now have greater latitude to implement their agenda, but also greater responsibility to deliver on promises that would justify the public’s trust in a majority‑style mandate. The coming months will likely see intense scrutiny from the opposition, media, and the public, especially regarding the government’s handling of economic policy, climate change, and national unity.

In short, while the Liberals are not yet an outright majority, the political calculus has shifted to the extent that they now hold the power to govern with significantly less friction than they previously enjoyed. Whether this translates into smooth governance or sparks a new wave of opposition challenges remains to be seen, but the moment is undeniably a watershed in Canada’s parliamentary history.