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Liberal Budget Survives by 3 Votes, Finance Minister Announces UAE Move

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, November 18th 2025 at 4:44 GMT by Toronto Star

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The Liberal Budget Holds the House in a Tight Vote – Carney Heads to the UAE

On a rain‑swept afternoon in Ottawa, the House of Commons witnessed a nail‑biting vote that sent shockwaves through Canada’s political landscape. Liberal Finance Minister Chad Carney’s newly‑unveiled federal budget survived a narrow vote, but the celebration was short‑lived: Carney announced that he would be leaving the country to take up a senior role in the United Arab Emirates. The two events—survival of the budget and the departure of the minister—together paint a picture of a Liberal government at a crossroads, grappling with fiscal realities, political opposition, and the personal career choices of its key figures.

1. The Budget: A Tightrope Walk Between Growth and Balance

Carney’s budget, presented earlier this week, was a blend of classic Liberal priorities—investment in climate, health, and infrastructure—paired with a new set of measures aimed at addressing the nation’s growing debt and interest costs. Key elements included:

• Climate‑Related Spending: An expanded Canada‑Climate Finance Fund, slated to deliver $10 billion over the next decade to support green technologies and carbon‑capture projects.
• Health and Social Support: A $7.5 billion increase in the Canada Health Transfer to provincial health budgets, and a $2 billion expansion of the Canada Child Benefit.
• Debt‑Management Strategy: A $3 billion “interest‑shield” package designed to refinance existing high‑interest loans, aiming to reduce Canada’s net debt by roughly 1.5 % of GDP in the first fiscal year.
• Tax Reforms: A modest hike in the federal tax credit for small‑business owners, along with an adjustment to the Canada Pension Plan contribution rates to shore up long‑term pension solvency.

While the package was broadly welcomed by business groups, the real test lay in the parliamentary vote.

2. The Vote: A Narrow Escape

The budget was debated over the course of a full day in the House, with opposition parties—Conservatives, the NDP, and the Bloc—pushing for a “no confidence” motion. The Liberals, holding a slender majority, fought hard to keep the motion from succeeding. The final tally was:

The budget survived by a margin of just 3 votes—the smallest margin since the Liberal Party’s return to power in 2015. The slim win underscored the urgency for the government to shore up its support base before Carney’s departure.

During the debate, Carney’s defense was brief and emphatic. “Canada can afford this budget,” he told the chamber, “and it is a responsible investment in our future.” He then turned to the ceiling and, for the first time in a week, stepped out of the speaker’s chair to address a pressing personal decision: his imminent relocation to the UAE.

3. Carney’s Departure: A Career Move That Shakes the Liberal Rank

The announcement that Carney would leave the Liberal government to assume the role of Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of the UAE struck the House like a thunderbolt. Sources say the appointment was offered to Carney by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, citing Carney’s experience in macro‑policy and debt management.

Carney’s decision comes after a period of intense scrutiny regarding the budget’s debt‑management strategies. Analysts have noted that the “interest‑shield” package, while initially welcomed, has been criticized for potentially inflating long‑term liabilities if not paired with stronger fiscal consolidation.

Carney’s exit will inevitably leave a leadership vacuum. The Liberal Party will have to appoint a new finance minister who can navigate the fragile majority, manage the newly adopted fiscal tools, and maintain credibility with both domestic stakeholders and international investors.

4. Opposition Reactions and the Road Ahead

Opposition leaders seized on Carney’s exit to highlight the fragility of the Liberal majority. Andrew Scheer (Conservative Leader) called the budget a “flawed fiscal policy” that was “tacked onto a shaky parliamentary majority.” He also warned that the new “interest‑shield” might become a “budgetary treadmill” if the Liberal Party fails to reduce its deficits.

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh praised the increased child‑benefit and health spending, but he slammed the government for its continued reliance on debt. He vowed to introduce an alternative fiscal plan focused on “public investment and worker‑centered policies.”

Yves Bérubé (Bloc Leader) offered a more muted response, stating that the budget had a strong “regional equity” component, especially with the allocation of funds for infrastructure projects in Quebec.

The House of Commons is now set for a series of confidence votes in the coming weeks, with the opposition threatening to push a “vote of no confidence” if the Liberals fail to secure the support of three key independent MPs who hold the balance of power.

5. The Budget’s Long‑Term Implications

The key to the budget’s survival—and the Liberal Party’s future—hinges on two intertwined factors:

1. Debt Sustainability: The “interest‑shield” and debt‑management reforms will need to be paired with stronger fiscal discipline to satisfy both domestic and international creditors. Analysts caution that a failure to do so could trigger a “confidence crisis” in Canada’s financial markets.

2. Political Stability: With Carney’s exit, the Liberal Party faces a precarious scenario where the new finance minister will need to rally parliamentary support for a tight budget, while also managing the fallout of a key figure’s departure to a foreign government.

6. In Closing

The Liberal budget’s survival in a razor‑thin House vote marked a triumph of parliamentary survival skills but also illuminated the undercurrent of fragility within the Liberal ranks. Carney’s departure to the UAE adds a layer of complexity, forcing the party to re‑evaluate its fiscal strategy and leadership structure.

In the weeks to come, the House will be the arena where the fate of Canada’s fiscal policy and the Liberal Party’s political longevity will be decided. Whether the new finance minister can keep the fragile majority intact while implementing the “interest‑shield” strategy will be the defining test of the Liberal government’s resilience in an increasingly volatile economic environment.