From Moldova to Africa, Russia's Power Is Waning

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, October 3rd 2025 at 12:37 GMT by Foreign Policy

Russia’s Shadow Over Moldova, Ukraine, and Beyond: A Geopolitical Tapestry of Power and Influence
(Foreign Policy, Oct. 3 2025)

In a sprawling, analytically‑rich piece that spans the breadth of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, Foreign Policy revisits the enduring conflict in Ukraine and its reverberations across Eastern Europe and Africa. The article opens by framing the 2025 war with Ukraine not as an isolated flashpoint but as a crucible that tests Russia’s influence over neighboring states, particularly the small, EU‑aspiring nation of Moldova. Through a combination of overt military pressure, covert political subversion, and the manipulation of the long‑standing Transnistrian separatist conflict, Russia seeks to reassert a “Russian sphere of influence” that stretches from the Black Sea to the African continent.

Moldova: A Microcosm of Russian Strategy

The article zeroes in on Maia Sandu’s Moldovan government, elected in 2024 on a platform of EU integration and democratic reform. It points out that the new administration has been under intense scrutiny from Moscow, which perceives Moldova’s pivot toward the West as a direct threat. Russian intelligence reportedly orchestrated cyber‑attacks against Moldovan media outlets and financed pro‑Russian NGOs to undermine Sandu’s legitimacy. The piece cites reports from the European External Action Service that flag “increasing propaganda operations aimed at destabilizing the Moldovan political process.”

Perhaps most alarming is Russia’s engagement in Transnistria, the break‑away enclave that has been a Russian “fiefdom” since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The article references a linked Foreign Policy investigation into the 2024 Transnistrian elections, where a pro‑Moscow candidate was declared the winner amid accusations of ballot stuffing. The foreign‑policy analyst argues that Moscow is using Transnistria as a bargaining chip in its broader strategy: by keeping the region under its influence, Russia ensures a strategic foothold in the Black Sea corridor and hampers NATO’s southern flank.

Ukraine: The Epicenter of Geopolitical Tug‑of‑War

While the Moldovan saga is a focal point, the war in Ukraine remains the epicenter of Russia’s geopolitical calculus. The article details how the conflict, now in its fourth year, has reshaped European security dynamics. It references the European Union’s “Ukraine Act” and the NATO “Strategic Concept 2025” that both call for increased defense spending in the eastern member states. The piece links to a Foreign Policy article that examines the shift in U.S. policy toward “containing” Russia—via sanctions, cyber‑defense cooperation, and the rapid deployment of advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

Africa: A New Arena for Power Play

A striking component of the analysis is Russia’s pivot to Africa, which the author describes as “a second chessboard” where Moscow seeks to counterbalance U.S. influence. The article cites a series of recent Russian diplomatic visits to countries such as Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, during which Moscow negotiated arms deals, energy contracts, and infrastructure projects. Foreign Policy also links to an in‑depth piece that tracks Russia’s growing military cooperation with the African Union, suggesting that Moscow is positioning itself as a “strategic partner” for a continent facing its own security challenges.

In Africa, Russia has been particularly active in the realm of “soft power,” deploying journalists, scientists, and cultural exchange programs to win hearts and minds. The article links to a study from the Carnegie Moscow Center that argues Russia’s African policy is as much about influencing the political narratives in the region as it is about securing economic benefits.

Power, Influence, and the Future of International Order

The author concludes by tying together the threads of Moldovan instability, Ukrainian resilience, and Russian ambition across multiple continents. The article presents a sobering view of how power and influence are increasingly contested through a mix of hard and soft tactics, with Russia leveraging its historical narrative, economic leverage, and strategic geography. The piece calls for a coordinated European response that not only supports Ukraine but also addresses the subversive tactics being employed in smaller states like Moldova. At the same time, it urges a reassessment of Europe’s engagement with Africa, warning that unchecked Russian influence could undermine the continent’s developmental trajectory and global security.

In sum, Foreign Policy’s article provides a comprehensive snapshot of Russia’s geopolitical maneuvers at a critical juncture in 2025, highlighting how the war in Ukraine is both a cause and a consequence of broader power struggles that reverberate from the Black Sea to the savannahs of Africa.