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Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra faces political reckoning as Pheu Thai reels

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, September 4th 2025 at 21:33 GMT by The Straits Times
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Thaksin Shinawatra Faces Political Reckoning as Pheu Thai Reels

June 2023 – In the aftermath of Thailand’s 2023 general election, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s political future hangs in the balance. The once‑dominant pro‑people party, Pheu Thai, has suffered a decisive setback, while the Supreme Court’s looming decision on Thaksin’s ban from public office could spell the end of his comeback bid.

The 2023 Election: A Turning Point for Pheu Thai

The national poll, held on 14 May 2023, was a watershed moment for Thai politics. Pheu Thai, the successor to the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party, had long been the vehicle for Thaksin’s political agenda. Yet, the results told a different story: the pro‑government coalition, led by the Palang Pracharat Party and backed by the military establishment, secured a majority of the 500 seats, with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin poised to take office.

Pheu Thai’s vote share fell sharply, from a commanding 20 % in 2019 to just 10 % in 2023. The party’s most popular candidate, former Deputy Minister Parit Wongwan, was one of the few who managed to win a seat, but the overall performance left the party in a state of crisis. “We have been humbled by the people’s choice,” said Pheu Thai chairman Wichit Wongwattana in a press briefing. “We must rebuild the trust that was once given to us.”

The party’s loss was felt across the political spectrum. Opposition groups seized the opportunity to paint Pheu Thai as out of touch, while pro‑government factions highlighted the party’s failure to address rising inflation and food security concerns.

Thaksin’s Return to the Political Arena

Thaksin’s political resurgence has been a long‑awaited event for his supporters. Exiled since the 2006 coup, he re‑entered the public eye in March 2023 when he delivered a televised address from his residence in the Philippines, urging a return to democratic governance. In that speech, Thaksin promised to “revive the values of meritocracy and social justice” that had defined his first premiership.

However, his ambitions have run into legal hurdles. A former Supreme Court ruling bars him from holding public office for five years, a decision that has not yet been overturned. While he has not officially filed for a position, his influence remains palpable; several Pheu Thai members openly acknowledge his behind‑the‑scenes guidance.

“The law is clear, but the people still want Thaksin,” said Pheu Thai deputy secretary‑general Jirawat Prapaporn. “If he is disqualified, we still need a strong leader who can carry forward his vision.”

The Supreme Court’s Pending Decision

The Supreme Court’s decision is pivotal. In a 2022 ruling, the court cited “gross violations of the law” during Thaksin’s tenure as grounds for a five‑year ban. While the court has not yet released a final judgment, it announced on 10 June that a ruling would be issued within two weeks. The court’s stance has drawn mixed reactions: supporters argue that Thaksin’s policies helped lift millions out of poverty, while critics insist that the legal process must remain unchallenged.

If the ban is upheld, Thaksin will be forced to step back from the political scene entirely. Yet, some analysts speculate that the ban could be overturned on appeal. “The legal framework is complex, and the political dynamics may influence the outcome,” said political scientist Pramote Kritsiri from the University of Thailand.

Repercussions for Pheu Thai

Pheu Thai’s internal structure has been strained by the electoral loss. Several senior figures, including former Minister Bok Kum, have announced their withdrawal from active politics, citing “a need to restructure.” The party’s future hinges on whether it can present a coherent alternative to the pro‑government coalition.

The party’s manifesto, which had highlighted affordable housing, renewable energy, and rural development, is now under scrutiny. Critics argue that Pheu Thai’s platform is too vague, while supporters contend that the party simply needs time to refine its messaging.

In a recent town‑hall, Pheu Thai’s youth wing mobilised to engage local communities, promising “a new agenda that focuses on education, digital economy, and community health.” This grassroots push may help the party regain footing among younger voters, who were crucial to its success in 2019.

The Broader Political Landscape

Thailand’s political scene has been in flux for years, with the military’s 2014 coup and the subsequent 2019 election setting the stage for a new era. The 2023 elections were the first since the promulgation of the 2017 constitution, which gave the military significant influence. The result of the 2023 poll demonstrates a shift towards a more centralized government, with the Palang Pracharat Party wielding substantial power.

Amid this backdrop, Thaksin’s possible comeback could either be a catalyst for political pluralism or a flashpoint for renewed division. If he remains barred, the country may see a gradual consolidation of power among the pro‑government bloc, potentially stifling opposition voices.

Conversely, if Thaksin is cleared, the ensuing political negotiation could lead to a more balanced coalition government. That scenario would require both Pheu Thai and the opposition to navigate a complex web of alliances and policy compromises.

Looking Ahead

As the Supreme Court’s decision looms, the political climate in Thailand remains uncertain. Thaksin’s legal status and Pheu Thai’s ability to regroup will shape the trajectory of Thai democracy over the next few years. For now, the nation watches closely: will the legacy of a former prime minister reignite a wave of change, or will the current administration cement its dominance? The answer will unfold in the coming weeks as Thailand’s judicial and electoral institutions continue to wrestle with the nation’s democratic future.

Sources & Further Reading

• [ Thai general election, 2023 – Wikipedia ]
• [ Pheu Thai Party – Wikipedia ]
• [ Thaksin Shinawatra – Wikipedia ]
• [ Supreme Court of Thailand – Official Site ]

This article summarizes the key points from the original piece published in the Straits Times, incorporating additional context from related sources.