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Bangladesh's Hasina Faces Challenges Amidst Continued Rule

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, February 17th 2026 at 14:32 GMT by moneycontrol.com
      Locales: BANGLADESH, INDIA

Dhaka, Bangladesh - February 17th, 2026 - Sheikh Hasina's Awami League (AL) continues to solidify its grip on power in Bangladesh, recently completing its fourth consecutive term following the contested December 2023 elections. While the victory itself wasn't surprising given the political climate, the circumstances surrounding it - a boycott by major opposition parties and reports of widespread violence - signal a potentially turbulent period ahead, not just for Bangladesh, but for the entire region, particularly India. This article delves into the implications of Hasina's continued rule, focusing on its impact on India's security, the escalating humanitarian concerns, the growing Chinese presence, and the delicate dance of Bangladesh's foreign policy.

The Strategic Lifeline and Evolving Security Landscape

Bangladesh's geostrategic importance to India remains paramount. The infamous "chicken's neck" - the Siliguri Corridor - is a critical artery connecting India's northeastern states to the mainland. Uninterrupted access through this narrow land passage is vital for both trade and military logistics. Historically, the Hasina government has largely facilitated this access, recognizing the mutual benefit. However, with a weakened opposition and increasing internal tensions, the long-term reliability of this arrangement is being questioned within Indian strategic circles. Recent reports suggest a noticeable increase in border security measures and infrastructural development along the corridor, ostensibly for economic purposes, but also raising concerns about potential future restrictions. India is now actively exploring alternative routes, including expanded riverine transport through Myanmar, though these options are significantly more expensive and logistically complex.

A Humanitarian Crisis Brewing: The Plight of Religious Minorities

The most pressing concern emanating from Bangladesh is the escalating violence against religious minorities, particularly the Hindu community. While the AL government publicly condemns these attacks, independent observers and human rights organizations paint a grim picture of inadequate protection and a lack of accountability for perpetrators. The frequency of attacks on temples, homes, and businesses has surged in the past two years, fueled by a combination of religious extremism and political opportunism. This isn't simply a domestic issue; the potential for a large-scale humanitarian crisis and a refugee influx into India's already overburdened border states is very real. India has been quietly increasing its capacity to handle potential refugee flows, but a sustained crisis would undoubtedly strain resources and exacerbate existing social tensions. Multiple international bodies, including the UN Human Rights Council, have called for independent investigations, adding to the diplomatic pressure on Dhaka.

China's Expanding Footprint: Economic Leverage and Geopolitical Implications

China's influence in Bangladesh has expanded dramatically in recent years, primarily through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Massive investments in infrastructure projects - ports, railways, and power plants - are reshaping the Bangladeshi economy and creating a significant degree of economic dependency on Beijing. While these investments offer much-needed development opportunities, they also provide China with considerable leverage over the Hasina government. Indian analysts worry that this leverage could be used to undermine India's strategic interests, particularly concerning access to the Northeast and regional security. Recent reports indicate China is also seeking to establish a stronger naval presence in the Bay of Bengal, further raising concerns in New Delhi. India is countering this by increasing its own economic engagement with Bangladesh, focusing on projects that offer sustainable development and avoid creating unsustainable debt.

Bangladesh's Balancing Act: Navigating Great Power Competition

Bangladesh under Hasina is skillfully navigating a complex web of international relations. While maintaining a generally positive relationship with India - evidenced by continued cooperation on counter-terrorism and border security - Dhaka is also actively cultivating ties with China, the United States, and other global powers. This pragmatic approach allows Bangladesh to maximize its economic and political options. However, it also presents a challenge for India, requiring a nuanced and flexible diplomatic strategy. India cannot simply assume Bangladesh's loyalty or take its support for granted. Instead, it must proactively engage with Dhaka, addressing concerns, fostering economic cooperation, and demonstrating a genuine commitment to Bangladesh's sovereignty and development.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for India

Sheikh Hasina's continued leadership offers a degree of stability, but it's a stability built on fragile foundations. India faces a complex set of challenges in dealing with a Bangladesh grappling with internal unrest, humanitarian concerns, and growing external influence. A comprehensive strategy is needed, one that prioritizes human rights, economic cooperation, and regional security. Ignoring the deteriorating humanitarian situation or allowing China to gain an unassailable foothold would be a grave mistake. India must remain engaged, offering assistance and support while simultaneously safeguarding its own strategic interests. The future of regional stability hinges, in part, on the successful navigation of this delicate balance.