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Mark Carney's Alberta Deal Signals Shift Away From Trudeau's Carbon-Tax Climate Strategy

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, November 27th 2025 at 12:43 GMT by Toronto Star

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Mark Carney’s “Clean‑Energy” Deal with Alberta: A Shift Away from Trudeau‑Era Climate Policies

The former governor of the Bank of Canada, Sir Mark Carney, has long been hailed as one of the world’s most influential climate‑policy champions. In his post‑banking career he has been called upon to bridge the gap between the public and private sectors, lending his credibility to Canada’s climate agenda. But a recent headline‑making deal between Carney and the Alberta provincial government signals a dramatic pivot away from the federal “Trudeau‑era” climate measures that had guided Canada’s energy and environmental strategy for the past five years.

The Deal in a Nutshell

In late 2023, Carney signed an energy memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the government of Alberta, the country’s largest oil‑producing province. Under the arrangement, Carney’s investment group will finance a suite of projects aimed at decarbonising Alberta’s heavy‑industrial and oil‑and‑gas sectors. The deal includes:

1. Hydrogen Production: A $300 million investment in a hydrogen‑production facility that will power a new “green” refinery in Leduc, Alberta.
2. Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS): Up to $1 billion in federal tax incentives for a CCS pilot that will capture carbon from existing oil‑field operations and store it in depleted oil‑and‑gas reservoirs.
3. Energy Efficiency & Electrification: Funding for a network of battery‑storage projects to smooth supply from Alberta’s wind and solar farms.

In exchange, Carney’s consortium will secure a preferential lease of the “Trans Mountain” pipeline expansion, which has been a thorny political issue in Alberta for years.

At face value, the deal appears to blend Carney’s climate expertise with Alberta’s energy ambitions. Yet the underlying mechanics of the agreement, and the political context in which it was struck, reveal why many critics say Carney is “dropping” the climate safeguards that were central to Trudeau’s 2019‑2023 agenda.

From Carbon Tax to Carbon Capture

During the Trudeau administration, Canada introduced a nationwide carbon tax that increased from C$20 to C$70 per tonne of CO₂ emitted. The policy was a cornerstone of the federal climate plan, and it was designed to push businesses, including Alberta’s oil and gas industry, toward cleaner alternatives.

Under Carney’s MoU, the Alberta deal does not directly address the carbon tax. Instead, the project focuses on technology that captures carbon after it’s produced, rather than preventing emissions in the first place. While CCS and hydrogen can play a role in a low‑carbon future, critics argue they can also create a “business‑as‑usual” pathway that delays the systemic shift to renewable energy.

The decision to sidestep the carbon tax is not merely a technical detail—it reflects a broader strategic pivot. By focusing on infrastructure that is compatible with fossil‑fuel production, the deal could enable Alberta to continue exporting oil for longer, while only marginally reducing its carbon intensity. This stands in sharp contrast to the Trudeau‑era aim of cutting Canada’s net emissions by 40‑45 % below 2005 levels by 2030.

Political Context and the Alberta Factor

Alberta’s economy has been historically linked to oil and gas. In 2023, the province’s government, led by Premier Danielle Smith, ran on a platform that promised to “protect” Alberta’s energy sector while also supporting green jobs. The provincial administration has repeatedly clashed with the federal government over pipeline projects and the carbon tax.

Carney’s involvement with the Alberta deal can be seen as part of a broader “regional accommodation” strategy. By aligning with a provincial power broker, Carney provides a platform for Alberta to negotiate with the federal government on terms that are more favourable to the province’s oil and gas interests. In effect, the deal shifts some of the fiscal and regulatory burden away from the federal level, allowing Alberta to continue capital‑intensive projects that would have been difficult under a strict carbon tax regime.

The deal has already raised questions in the Senate, where a committee has begun hearings on “the role of private actors in shaping national climate policy.” Some senators argue that a private‑public partnership of this scale may undermine the uniformity of Canada’s climate strategy and potentially create loopholes that fossil‑fuel producers can exploit.

Environmental and Economic Implications

Economic Gains: Proponents of the deal highlight the creation of thousands of jobs in Alberta’s renewable‑energy and infrastructure sectors. They also argue that the pipeline expansion will secure a stable market for Canadian oil, potentially boosting GDP and government revenues. The federal tax incentives included in the deal—particularly the $1 billion for CCS—are presented as a win‑win: a boost to the provincial economy and a step toward a lower‑carbon future.

Environmental Trade‑offs: Environmental groups have voiced concern that the deal essentially extends the life of Alberta’s fossil‑fuel industry. They note that while hydrogen and CCS can reduce the carbon intensity of oil production, they are not a substitute for a comprehensive transition to renewable electricity. Critics point out that the technology is still in the early stages, and large‑scale deployment could require substantial federal oversight to ensure that it does not become a “carbon‑capture” loophole that perpetuates fossil‑fuel dependence.

Policy Consistency: The deal raises a broader question about Canada’s consistency in meeting its Paris Agreement commitments. By creating a preferential arrangement for Alberta that bypasses the carbon tax, the federal government may be seen as compromising its own climate policy. This could erode public trust, especially among climate‑conscious Canadians who view the carbon tax as a moral and economic instrument for reducing emissions.

Carney’s Motivations and Legacy

Sir Mark Carney’s career trajectory—from a central banker to a climate‑policy advocate and now a private‑sector investment broker—illustrates the complex interplay between governance and commerce. Carney has often emphasized the “financial risk” of climate change, arguing that businesses must internalise the costs of carbon. In the Alberta deal, he appears to be applying a market‑based approach to a sector that has long been resistant to policy change.

Nonetheless, Carney’s legacy as a climate champion is at risk. The deal underscores a shift from regulatory frameworks to technology‑centric solutions, which may not fully capture the urgency of global climate targets. Moreover, the preferential treatment for Alberta could set a precedent that undermines national coherence in climate policy.

Conclusion

Mark Carney’s new energy partnership with Alberta, while framed as a forward‑looking investment in hydrogen and CCS, signals a deliberate move away from the federal carbon‑tax model that underpinned Canada’s climate policy under Justin Trudeau. By privileging infrastructure that complements Alberta’s fossil‑fuel industry, the deal could extend the life of a carbon‑heavy sector and dilute the impact of Canada’s national carbon tax. While it promises economic benefits and job creation, the environmental trade‑offs and implications for policy consistency raise legitimate concerns.

The story is still unfolding. As Parliament debates the deal’s merits and potential loopholes, Canadians will be watching closely to see whether this partnership marks a strategic pivot toward a more “balanced” climate policy, or a step back from the hard‑line measures that have defined Canada’s national climate agenda for the past decade.