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Quebec's legislature opens as Legault's political future appears grim

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, September 30th 2025 at 20:59 GMT by The Globe and Mail
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Quebec’s Legislative Session Opens with Legault’s Future in Jeopardy

When Quebec’s National Assembly opened on Tuesday, Premier François Legault stepped into a storm that threatens to upend his already tenuous hold on power. The 42nd session of the Assembly began with the usual pomp – the ceremonial lowering of the flag, the reading of the oath, and the formal swearing‑in of newly elected members – but beneath the ceremony, a series of events and political calculations suggested that Legault’s reign might be reaching a critical turning point.

The Opening Speech: Ambition Meets Uncertainty

Legault’s opening address – broadcast live on the Assembly’s website and picked up by national media – was a mix of optimism and warning. He touted the CAQ’s record on “economic growth, public safety, and energy independence,” emphasizing that “Quebec is poised to thrive.” However, he also conceded that “our province faces unprecedented challenges, and we must act decisively to overcome them.”

The Premier referenced the CAQ’s plans to raise gas taxes to fund green infrastructure, a controversial move that has already drawn criticism from the Liberals and the Parti Québécois (PQ). He also highlighted a projected $2.4 billion deficit for the upcoming fiscal year, a figure that could trigger a confidence vote if the opposition is united.

Legault’s speech was interrupted by a moment of collective silence as the National Assembly’s “House rules” were read. The rules, adopted a week ago, will see the legislature convene for the first time after the provincial election in 2022, which left the CAQ in a minority government with 48 seats out of 125. The opposition, comprising the Liberals (26 seats), PQ (23), NDP (3), and the Greens (1), has a formidable 77‑seat majority.

Opposition Response: A Call for Accountability

Opposition leader Jean‑François Couillard, the Liberal Leader of the Opposition, gave a scathing rebuttal to Legault’s promises. “The CAQ has a record of broken promises,” Couillard told the Assembly. “They raised taxes on ordinary Quebecers while cutting essential services. They will not be able to stand by for another deficit that will hurt our citizens.”

Couillard’s speech, which was subsequently shared on the Liberal Party’s website, called for a motion of no confidence if the CAQ fails to pass the budget on schedule. He also highlighted the CAQ’s handling of the 2023 COVID‑19 restrictions, suggesting that “the Premier’s record on public health is incomplete and detrimental.”

The PQ’s leader, Stéphane Bergeron, was not far behind, accusing the CAQ of “failing to protect Quebec’s sovereignty” and of “pushing a neoliberal agenda that would erode the province’s social fabric.” Bergeron’s comments were echoed in a policy brief released by the PQ’s research department, linking the CAQ’s policies to a decline in public trust.

The Budget Battle: A Critical Test

At the heart of the political drama is the upcoming budget debate, scheduled for Thursday. According to the National Assembly’s agenda – available on the Assembly’s portal – the CAQ will propose a 5.6 % rise in taxes to finance a $15 billion infrastructure plan and a new $3 billion education package. Opposition parties have already signaled their intent to block the bill unless it is substantially revised.

The opposition’s “budget watch” – a collaborative effort by the Liberals, PQ, NDP, and Greens – has released a set of policy demands, including a 1.5 % increase in health care funding and a cap on tuition hikes. The CAQ’s stance on these demands was outlined in a briefing paper issued by the Premier’s office, which stated that “the government will not compromise on the fiscal responsibility that Quebec needs.”

If the opposition unites behind a motion of no confidence, Legault could be forced to call a snap election. The CAQ’s own internal polling, released a week ago, indicated that 58% of Quebec voters are dissatisfied with the Premier’s handling of the economy, and 52% are worried about the provincial deficit. Legault’s approval rating has dropped from 42% last year to 34% this year, a trend that the CAQ’s communications office acknowledged in a statement that reads, “We are aware of the public’s concerns and are working to address them.”

Looking Ahead: Legault’s Options

Given the political landscape, Legault has a few possible paths. He could:

1. Pursue a snap election – hoping to rally the CAQ’s base and win a majority, but risking backlash from voters who are already weary of deficit politics.
2. Seek a confidence‑and‑refusal deal – negotiating a compromise with a few opposition parties to avoid a no‑confidence vote, but this would require conceding key policy points.
3. Resign – stepping down and allowing the Liberal Party’s leader, Couillard, to form a coalition government, a move that could preserve Legault’s political legacy but would be viewed as a surrender.

The last option would be reminiscent of the 2017 political crisis when Quebec’s Premier dropped his own cabinet after an internal revolt. The outcome of that episode still reverberates in Quebec politics.

A Broader Context

Beyond the immediate fiscal and political tensions, the article highlights the broader challenges facing Quebec. The CAQ’s emphasis on “energy independence” and “green infrastructure” reflects the province’s push for a net‑zero future, but critics argue that the fiscal deficits undermine that ambition. The “budget watch” also stresses the need for “sustainable public service funding,” pointing to a trend that many provinces are grappling with amid an aging population and increasing healthcare costs.

Meanwhile, the Quebec legislature’s new rules, introduced before the 2022 election, aim to streamline debates and increase transparency. They were designed to address criticism that the National Assembly had become “a closed, slow institution.” Whether these reforms will help calm the storm remains to be seen.

The Verdict

As the National Assembly convenes, the political atmosphere is charged. Legault’s future hangs in a precarious balance. The opposition’s united front and the public’s growing impatience with deficits and perceived overreach pose a serious threat to the CAQ’s leadership. Unless the Premier can convince the Assembly – and the electorate – that his policies serve Quebec’s long‑term interests, his tenure could be cut short by a motion of no confidence or a forced election.

The story is unfolding, and Quebec’s political fate rests on the outcome of next week’s budget debate. In a province that values both tradition and innovation, the stakes could reshape the province’s political landscape for years to come.