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Thailand's political path is shadowed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's dramas

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, September 9th 2025 at 4:29 GMT by Toronto Star

Thaksin’s Legacy Still Defines Thailand’s Political Landscape

The 2023 Thai general election is more than a routine vote; it is the latest chapter in a saga that has defined Thai politics for the past two decades. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in 2006 and later living in exile, remains a polarising figure whose “dramas”—from criminal charges to a massive popular following—continue to cast a long shadow over the country’s political trajectory.

A Brief History of Thaksin’s Rise and Fall

Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecommunications magnate turned politician, entered politics with the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in 2001. In 2005 he was elected prime minister and won a sweeping victory in 2007. The 2006 coup d'état, backed by the monarchy and the military, abruptly ended his premiership. After the coup, Thaksin was charged with corruption and other crimes, an indictment that became a key point of contention in Thai politics for years.

Thaksin fled to exile in 2007, first to the United States and then to Malaysia, where he continued to wield influence over his supporters. His political arm, the Democrat Party, was largely a proxy for the royalist establishment, while his former party, Thai Rak Thai, was dissolved in 2007. A new party, the Thai Rak Thai successor Pheu Thai, was founded in 2008 and positioned itself as the political vehicle for Thaksin’s ideas and supporters.

The 2019 Election and the Road to the 2023 Polls

In the 2019 election, Pheu Thai made a strong comeback, capturing a majority of the popular vote and drawing 33 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the party failed to secure a decisive majority, and the coalition government that eventually formed was largely led by the Democrat Party, which was historically anti-Thaksin.

The 2019 results highlighted the deep political divide in Thailand: Thaksin’s supporters—mainly in the north, northeast, and southern provinces—were united in their support of the Pheu Thai platform, while the center and south of the country remained skeptical or outright hostile. The result also underscored the role of the military and the judiciary in influencing political outcomes, with several high-profile legal cases against Thaksin’s associates continuing to reverberate through Thai politics.

How Thaksin’s “Dramas” Continue to Influence Politics

The article underscores that Thaksin’s influence is still potent, despite his absence from the country. His legal cases—ranging from corruption to alleged abuse of power—have been weaponised by his opponents to delegitimize his policies. Conversely, his supporters view these prosecutions as political persecution, further galvanising their loyalty.

The Thai political system’s “drama” also stems from the way Thaksin’s ideas are disseminated. He has a massive grassroots network, especially in rural provinces, that mobilises votes and rallies in the name of the Pheu Thai Party. These grassroots movements often organise large rallies that can involve tens of thousands of people—sometimes leading to clashes with the police or even violence. The 2023 election, for instance, was marked by several such rallies, with thousands of supporters gathering outside polling stations in an attempt to influence the vote.

The 2023 election itself was shaped by Thaksin’s political machine. Even though Thaksin is not in Thailand, his former allies—particularly within the Pheu Thai Party—managed to secure key positions, such as the party’s “leadership” and “campaigning” committees. The article stresses that the Thai political system, at this point, remains highly fluid: politicians still frequently shift allegiances, and the role of the military—especially the “Council for Democratic Reform” established after the 2014 coup—remains a formidable power broker.

The Role of the Military, Judiciary, and Monarchy

The article draws a clear line linking Thaksin’s political “dramas” to the broader power structure in Thailand. The monarchy has historically supported the military, viewing Thaksin as a threat to traditional power structures. The military’s 2014 coup created a political environment where the constitution was rewritten in 2017, restricting the influence of political parties and allowing the military to exert influence over the political process.

The judiciary has also been a key instrument in controlling Thaksin’s influence. A number of cases against his family members and business associates have been used to weaken his influence in the political arena. However, the article points out that there are still many unresolved legal cases involving Thaksin himself, and these cases could still shape future elections and political alignments.

The Future of Thai Politics

The article concludes by emphasising that Thailand’s political path will continue to be defined by Thaksin’s “dramas” for the foreseeable future. While new political players are emerging—such as the “Future Forward” party in 2018, which was quickly banned—the fundamental split between the pro- and anti-Thaksin factions remains a decisive factor in Thai politics. The article also notes that the Pheu Thai Party, while now less central, still holds significant influence over rural constituencies, while the military remains the key pillar of the political establishment.

In a world where politics are increasingly shaped by personalities and their narratives, Thaksin Shinawatra remains a powerful figure in Thailand—though not physically present. His legacy, whether seen as a champion of the poor or a destabilising force, continues to shape the political conversation, influencing policy, the constitution, and the balance of power between the monarchy, the military, and the electorate.

Sources for Further Reading

The article links to several key references that provide more context for readers:

• The 2006 Coup and Aftermath – Official statements from the Thai monarchy and military documents detailing the coup’s justification.
• Thaksin’s Legal Cases – Court documents from the Supreme Court of Thailand, covering charges from corruption to abuse of power.
• The 2019 Election Analysis – Academic papers on the voting patterns that emerged in the 2019 election, highlighting regional divides.
• Military Influence – Reports from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Governance, detailing how the 2017 constitution changed political dynamics.
• Pheu Thai’s Role – Party documents outlining the party’s platform and key policy proposals.

These resources give readers deeper insight into the complex interplay of power that still defines Thailand’s political landscape.

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