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Tarique Rahman's Return Shakes Up Bangladesh Politics

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, February 13th 2026 at 5:50 GMT by The New York Times
      Locales: BANGLADESH, UNITED KINGDOM

DHAKA - The political landscape of Bangladesh has been thrown into further disarray with the recent return of Tarique Rahman, the presumptive successor to Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Released from imprisonment and granted asylum in the United Kingdom after years in exile, Rahman's reappearance on the scene promises to dramatically reshape the dynamics of the upcoming general election, already fraught with tension and accusations of political maneuvering.

Rahman's journey from imprisonment to exile, and now potential political re-engagement, encapsulates the turbulent nature of Bangladeshi politics. Convicted in 2018 on charges of money laundering and corruption - charges he vehemently denies, labeling them politically motivated - Rahman fled to London in 2015. His absence has long been a critical factor in the opposition's struggles against the long-standing ruling Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Political analysts like Asif Nazrul of Dhaka University are calling Rahman's return a "game-changer." For years, the BNP has been hampered by a lack of strong, visible leadership, struggling to effectively challenge the AL's dominance. Rahman's return ostensibly addresses this issue, offering a figurehead around which the opposition can rally. However, it also introduces a complex set of challenges, both internal to the BNP and in terms of the broader political climate.

While supporters hail his return as a testament to the injustice they perceive within the Bangladeshi legal system, the Awami League views it differently. Government officials have consistently branded Rahman a national security risk, accusing him of instigating unrest and fostering extremism. Ironically, his departure to the UK was previously welcomed by the AL as a means of reducing potential instability. Now, his possible re-entry into the political fray presents a renewed challenge to their authority.

The upcoming election is already shaping up to be exceptionally contentious. The Awami League has held power for nearly fifteen years, a period marked by significant economic growth but also growing concerns over shrinking democratic space and human rights abuses. Critics allege a systematic crackdown on dissent, the suppression of opposition voices, and the manipulation of the electoral process. The international community is keenly observing the situation, with numerous human rights organizations voicing concerns over the fairness and transparency of the election.

Integrating Rahman into the BNP's leadership will be a delicate undertaking. While he undoubtedly commands considerable support within the party, his views may not universally align with all factions. Senior political commentator Salimullah Chowdhury points to the potential for internal division, stating that Rahman's presence "could exacerbate existing divisions" within the BNP. Balancing the demands of different party wings and forging a unified strategy will be crucial if the opposition hopes to present a credible challenge to the AL.

Beyond internal dynamics, Rahman's return raises questions about the broader political stability of Bangladesh. The AL is likely to intensify its efforts to discredit him, potentially reviving the corruption charges and leveraging its control over state institutions to hinder his political activities. This could escalate tensions and lead to street protests, potentially sparking violence. The government's response to any such unrest will be critical in determining whether the election process remains peaceful and credible.

Furthermore, the situation has significant implications for Bangladesh's relationship with the international community. A flawed or unfair election could damage the country's reputation and lead to a reduction in foreign aid and investment. The United States, the European Union, and other major powers have all expressed their commitment to supporting democratic values and principles, and they are likely to scrutinize the election closely. The outcome will undoubtedly influence their future engagement with Bangladesh.

The specter of political violence looms large. Past elections in Bangladesh have been marred by clashes between supporters of rival parties, and there are fears that the current climate could be even more volatile. Ensuring the safety and security of voters, candidates, and election officials will be a paramount challenge for the authorities. The Election Commission, an independent body responsible for overseeing the electoral process, will play a crucial role in maintaining impartiality and ensuring a level playing field for all parties.

Ultimately, Tarique Rahman's return has injected a potent dose of uncertainty into the Bangladeshi political equation. While his presence offers a potential boost to the opposition, it also carries significant risks. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate this turbulent period and hold a free, fair, and peaceful election - an election that will shape the country's future for years to come.