N※N

Tanzania election: Why CCM is 'assured' of the presidency - DW - 10/27/2025

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. -is-assured-of-the-presidency-dw-10-27-2025.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, October 27th 2025 at 5:41 GMT by dw
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

2025-10-27 300 x 168 / 12067 Bytes

2025-10-27 312 x 136 / 15090 Bytes

2025-10-27 300 x 168 / 6099 Bytes

2025-10-27 300 x 168 / 7816 Bytes

Tanzania’s Electoral Landscape: Why the CCM Still Holds the Crown

The 2025 presidential election in Tanzania is a pivotal moment for a country that has been dominated by the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) for almost four decades. In a comprehensive analysis released by Deutsche Welle, the reasons behind the ruling party’s near‑certain triumph are laid out in a clear, evidence‑based narrative that draws from Tanzania’s political history, the current socio‑economic climate, and the structure of its electoral system.

A Legacy of One‑Party Dominance

The CCM, which translates to “Party of the Revolution,” was founded in 1977 through the merger of the Tanganyika African National Union (TANU) and the Afro‑Asian Peoples’ Solidarity Organization. From the early 1980s until the early 2000s, the party operated as the sole legal entity in a one‑party system, later transitioning to a controlled multi‑party environment. Even after the 1992 constitutional amendments that allowed other parties, CCM retained a monopoly over the political arena, winning every presidential election through 2020.

The article highlights that CCM’s longevity is partly a product of the political culture it fostered. It built extensive patronage networks, integrated rural communities into the party’s structure, and maintained a disciplined cadre system. This institutional memory gives the party a decisive advantage in mobilizing voters and disseminating campaign messages.

Electoral Mechanics that Favor the Incumbent

Tanzania’s electoral law, as explained in the piece, stipulates that the presidential candidate who receives a plurality of the votes in the first round automatically wins. There is no requirement for an absolute majority or a second‑round runoff. Because CCM typically secures a large share of the vote in rural and peri‑urban districts—areas that hold a majority of the electorate—its candidates often win outright in the first round.

The article references the 2020 election, where incumbent President John Magufuli, a CCM stalwart, won with 71.7% of the vote. This victory cemented the party’s image as a government that delivers tangible results, especially in infrastructure projects and anti‑corruption initiatives. The same electoral framework means that any opposition candidate who fails to break through the CCM’s entrenched base is unlikely to mount a serious challenge.

The Current Socio‑Economic Narrative

In 2023, Tanzania is grappling with a combination of economic pressures: inflation, a depreciating shilling, and the after‑effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic. The CCM’s campaign strategy, as outlined by DW, emphasizes its role in stabilizing the economy and maintaining social cohesion. The party’s rhetoric centers on continued investment in roads, schools, and health facilities, projects that have historically garnered strong public approval.

The article also notes that the CCM’s approach to governance—particularly its insistence on swift decision‑making and a “no‑politics‑in‑the‑public‑sector” mantra—appears to resonate with voters tired of bureaucratic delays. In contrast, opposition parties such as the Civic United Front (CUF) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have struggled to present a coherent alternative that addresses these practical concerns without appearing too radical.

Opposition Fragmentation and Leadership Void

One of the key insights offered by the DW piece is the fragmentation within Tanzania’s opposition. While the UDA, led by opposition figure Samia Suluhu (who actually became President after Magufuli’s death in 2021), has risen as a major challenger, it remains a relatively new party that has yet to fully cement its grassroots networks. Other opposition groups, including the National Convention Party (NCP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP), operate in smaller spheres and have historically received a combined share of less than 10% of the vote.

Moreover, the article points out that the death of President Magufuli left a leadership vacuum that the CCM swiftly filled with a succession plan. President Samia Suluhu, who was the Deputy President, was able to leverage the party’s internal mechanisms to maintain continuity, thereby preserving the perception of stability. The opposition, on the other hand, has had to deal with internal divisions and a lack of a charismatic, nationally recognizable figure to rally behind.

Media Control and Narrative Power

The DW article also touches on the media landscape in Tanzania. While the government officially maintains a free press, in practice it exerts substantial influence through regulatory bodies and economic pressure. State‑owned media outlets, such as the Tanzania Broadcasting Corporation, provide extensive coverage of CCM’s policies and achievements. Opposition voices are often limited to smaller, independent outlets that struggle to reach rural audiences. The piece cites a 2022 study indicating that over 70% of rural voters report having heard CCM’s message multiple times through radio, television, and community meetings.

This media environment further tilts the electoral balance, giving CCM a narrative advantage that is difficult for opposition parties to overcome, especially in a country where radio remains the primary source of information for many.

International Observation and Regional Context

Deutsche Welle’s coverage incorporates the role of international observers, noting that the African Union and the United Nations have monitored previous elections and largely described them as “free and fair.” However, observers have raised concerns about the lack of true competitiveness and the uneven playing field that favors incumbents. This observation reinforces the argument that the CCM’s assured win is less a reflection of overwhelming public support and more a product of systemic structures that marginalize opposition.

The article also situates Tanzania within a broader regional context. Countries such as Kenya and Uganda have witnessed more competitive elections, while the CCM’s model of dominance is contrasted with the multiparty democracies of neighboring states. The implication is that Tanzania’s political trajectory is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a wider pattern in East Africa, where ruling parties often maintain control through a mix of patronage, institutional advantages, and limited media freedom.

Conclusion

The DW analysis concludes that the CCM’s assuredness of winning the 2025 presidential election is built upon a foundation of institutional longevity, an electoral system that favors incumbency, a strategic narrative of economic stewardship, a fragmented and relatively inexperienced opposition, and a media landscape that reinforces the ruling party’s messaging. While the party enjoys substantial public approval in key areas, the structural advantages it holds mean that its dominance is less a question of public mandate and more a product of the political architecture that has evolved over nearly four decades. As Tanzania heads into the electoral season, the real test for the nation will be whether the CCM can genuinely respond to the evolving aspirations of its populace—or whether the electoral outcome will simply reaffirm a status quo that has long shaped the country’s political destiny.