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Bolivia's Leftist Divide: A Crisis of Dominance

Bolivia’s Divided Left Risks Losing Elections After 20 Years of Dominance

In the lead-up to Bolivia's 2025 general elections, the once-unassailable leftist Movement for Socialism (MAS) party faces an unprecedented crisis that could end its two-decade grip on power. Since Evo Morales ascended to the presidency in 2006 as Bolivia's first indigenous leader, the MAS has revolutionized the country's politics, championing indigenous rights, nationalizing key industries like natural gas, and implementing social programs that lifted millions out of poverty. This era of leftist dominance transformed Bolivia from one of South America's poorest nations into a symbol of progressive governance, reducing inequality and fostering economic growth through resource-based revenues. However, internal fractures, exacerbated by personal rivalries and ideological divergences, now threaten to splinter the party and hand victory to conservative opponents.

The rift centers on the bitter feud between former President Evo Morales and his successor, current President Luis Arce. Morales, who served three terms before resigning amid controversy in 2019, has positioned himself as the MAS's rightful leader, accusing Arce of betraying the party's revolutionary ethos. Arce, a technocratic economist who stabilized the economy post-2019 crisis, counters that Morales's ambitions represent outdated populism and authoritarian tendencies. This division has split the MAS into two factions: the "Evistas," loyal to Morales, and the "Arcistas," backing Arce. The schism became public in 2023 when Morales attempted to run for office again, defying a constitutional ruling that barred him from seeking a fourth term. Bolivia's Constitutional Court upheld the ban, but Morales's supporters decried it as a political maneuver orchestrated by Arce's administration.

The origins of this divide trace back to the tumultuous events of 2019. Morales's bid for a fourth term sparked widespread protests over alleged electoral fraud, leading to his ousting in what his allies call a coup backed by the military and right-wing forces. Jeanine Áñez, a conservative senator, assumed interim power, overseeing a period marked by repression of indigenous protesters and economic downturns. The MAS regrouped under Arce, who won a landslide victory in 2020, restoring leftist rule. Yet, tensions simmered as Morales, from exile in Argentina, plotted his return. Upon re-entering Bolivia, he clashed with Arce over policy directions, particularly on lithium extraction—Bolivia holds the world's largest reserves—and economic management amid global inflation and declining gas exports.

Economically, Bolivia's challenges have amplified the left's vulnerabilities. The country has long relied on natural gas exports to neighbors like Brazil and Argentina, but depleting reserves and shifting global energy markets have strained revenues. Arce's government has pursued cautious reforms, including partnerships with foreign firms for lithium development, aiming to position Bolivia as a key player in the electric vehicle battery supply chain. Critics within the MAS, including Morales, argue this approach cedes too much control to international capital, echoing neoliberal policies the party once opposed. Meanwhile, inflation has hovered around 3-5% annually, but fuel shortages and dollar scarcity have fueled public discontent. Social programs, once the MAS's hallmark, face funding shortfalls, eroding support among the rural and indigenous base that propelled the party to power.

Politically, the division has manifested in dramatic confrontations. In 2024, MAS lawmakers loyal to Morales boycotted sessions, paralyzing legislative progress and forcing Arce to govern via decrees. Protests erupted in cities like La Paz and Cochabamba, with Evistas blocking highways to demand Morales's eligibility for the 2025 race. Arce responded by mobilizing security forces, leading to accusations of repression from human rights groups. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal's decision to potentially bar Morales from running has further inflamed tensions, with his faction threatening to form a splinter party or boycott the elections altogether. Polls indicate that a united MAS could secure over 40% of the vote, but a split might dilute this to below 30% per faction, opening the door for opposition victories.

The right-wing opposition, fragmented but resurgent, senses opportunity. Figures like Carlos Mesa, a centrist former president who ran against Morales in 2019, and Luis Fernando Camacho, the far-right governor of Santa Cruz known for his role in the 2019 unrest, are positioning themselves as alternatives. Camacho's Civic Committee promotes regional autonomy and free-market policies, appealing to the affluent eastern lowlands where agribusiness thrives. Mesa, meanwhile, courts urban moderates disillusioned with MAS infighting. Emerging indigenous leaders outside the MAS orbit, such as those from the lowland Isiboro Sécure Territory (ISIBORO), criticize both factions for failing to address environmental concerns amid mining expansions.

Broader societal issues compound the left's woes. Bolivia's youth, comprising a growing demographic, express frustration over unemployment and limited opportunities, with many migrating to neighboring countries. Gender dynamics have evolved, with women—empowered by MAS policies like the 2010 gender parity law—demanding more from a party seen as patriarchal under Morales's influence. Climate change poses existential threats, from droughts affecting highland farmers to deforestation in the Amazon basin, areas where MAS environmental records are mixed.

If the left fractures irreparably, analysts predict a conservative resurgence could reverse key gains: reprivatizing industries, scaling back social spending, and aligning more closely with the United States, potentially straining relations with leftist allies like Venezuela and Cuba. For Bolivia's indigenous majority, who make up over 60% of the population, this could mean a rollback of cultural recognition and land rights hard-won under MAS rule. Morales has warned that without unity, the "process of change" he initiated risks collapse, while Arce insists on institutional stability over charismatic leadership.

As election day approaches in October 2025, mediation efforts by figures like former Uruguayan President José Mujica have faltered. The MAS congress, slated for later this year, could be a make-or-break moment for reconciliation. Yet, with both leaders digging in, the prospect of a divided ballot looms large. International observers, including the Organization of American States, are monitoring closely, recalling the 2019 debacle. For Bolivia, a nation that defied odds to build a plurinational state, the coming vote tests whether its leftist experiment can endure internal strife or if division will pave the way for a dramatic political shift after 20 years of dominance.

This internal discord not only jeopardizes the MAS's electoral prospects but also raises questions about the sustainability of leftist movements across Latin America. In a region where pink tide governments have faced backlash—from Brazil's Bolsonaro era to Argentina's Milei—Bolivia's case exemplifies how personal ambitions and policy disputes can undermine ideological solidarity. Supporters of Morales evoke his legacy of decolonization, pointing to achievements like the 2009 constitution that enshrined indigenous languages and rights. Arce's camp highlights fiscal prudence, crediting him with averting economic collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic through subsidies and debt restructuring.

The stakes extend to foreign policy. Under MAS, Bolivia has championed anti-imperialist stances, withdrawing from bodies like the Lima Group and strengthening ties with China and Russia for infrastructure and technology. A rightward turn could realign Bolivia with Western powers, affecting trade deals and regional integration efforts like the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). Domestically, issues like judicial reform remain unresolved, with accusations of politicized courts fueling the divide.

In rural areas, where MAS draws core support, farmers grapple with falling commodity prices and water scarcity, blaming government inaction. Urban centers, meanwhile, see rising crime and inequality, eroding faith in leftist governance. As campaigns heat up, both MAS factions are ramping up rhetoric: Morales tours indigenous communities, invoking Aymara and Quechua traditions, while Arce touts macroeconomic indicators to appeal to the middle class.

Ultimately, Bolivia's divided left stands at a crossroads. Reconciliation could reaffirm its dominance, but persistent rifts risk electoral defeat, potentially ushering in an era of conservative policies that dismantle the social fabric woven over two decades. The outcome will resonate far beyond Bolivia's borders, influencing leftist strategies continent-wide. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full Le Monde.fr Article at:
[ https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/08/17/bolivia-s-divided-left-risks-losing-elections-after-20-years-of-dominance_6744452_4.html ]