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Bolivia National Elections Overview

Extensive Summary of Bolivia's National Elections: Polls Open Amid High Stakes for Political Shift

Polls have officially opened across Bolivia for the long-awaited national elections, a pivotal moment that could potentially empower right-wing forces in a country still reeling from political turmoil and the ousting of former President Evo Morales in 2019. The elections, held on a Sunday morning, mark a critical juncture for Bolivia's democracy, with voters deciding on a new president, vice president, and members of the bicameral legislature. Over 7 million registered voters are expected to participate in this high-stakes contest, which has been delayed multiple times due to the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread protests. The atmosphere is tense, with heavy security presence at polling stations to prevent any repeat of the violence that marred the 2019 vote, which led to Morales' controversial resignation and exile.

At the heart of the election is the question of whether Bolivia will return to the leftist policies championed by Morales' Movement for Socialism (MAS) party or veer toward a more conservative, right-wing direction. Leading the polls is Luis Arce, the MAS candidate and former economy minister under Morales, who is seen as the heir apparent to the socialist legacy. Arce, an economist credited with Bolivia's economic boom during the commodities supercycle, promises to revive the economy through state-led initiatives, protect indigenous rights, and address the inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic. His campaign emphasizes continuity with Morales' "Process of Change," which lifted millions out of poverty but was criticized for authoritarian tendencies and environmental exploitation, particularly in the lithium-rich Salar de Uyuni region.

Challenging Arce is a fragmented opposition, with centrist Carlos Mesa, a former president and journalist, positioning himself as a moderate alternative. Mesa, who came second in the 2019 election, appeals to urban voters disillusioned with both extremes. He advocates for democratic reforms, anti-corruption measures, and a balanced approach to economic recovery, including attracting foreign investment while respecting Bolivia's plurinational identity. However, the real wildcard in this race is Luis Fernando Camacho, a charismatic right-wing figure from the eastern lowlands, particularly Santa Cruz, Bolivia's economic powerhouse. Camacho rose to prominence during the 2019 protests that forced Morales out, entering the presidential palace with a Bible in hand and declaring a return to Christian values. His campaign resonates with conservative, business-oriented voters who seek to dismantle MAS's influence, promote free-market policies, and decentralize power away from the Andean highlands dominated by indigenous groups.

The potential empowerment of the right wing, as highlighted in the election's narrative, stems from deep societal divisions. Bolivia, one of South America's poorest nations, has grappled with economic contraction, high unemployment, and a devastating COVID-19 outbreak that has claimed thousands of lives and overwhelmed the healthcare system. Interim President Jeanine Áñez, who assumed power after Morales' departure and initially pledged to be a caretaker, has faced accusations of politicizing her role. Her right-leaning government implemented austerity measures and pursued legal actions against MAS figures, including charging Morales with terrorism and sedition—claims he denies from exile in Argentina. Áñez herself withdrew from the presidential race amid low poll numbers, but her administration's handling of the pandemic and suppression of protests have polarized the electorate further.

Voters are casting ballots under strict health protocols, including mandatory mask-wearing, social distancing, and staggered voting times to avoid crowds. In rural areas, where MAS enjoys strong support from indigenous Aymara and Quechua communities, turnout is expected to be robust, driven by loyalty to Morales' legacy of land reforms and nationalization of natural resources. Urban centers like La Paz and Cochabamba, however, show more mixed sentiments, with some fearing a MAS victory could lead to renewed authoritarianism, while others blame the interim government for economic woes and human rights abuses. International observers from the Organization of American States (OAS), whose 2019 report on electoral fraud contributed to Morales' downfall, are monitoring the process closely to ensure transparency.

The election's outcome could have profound implications for Bolivia's role in regional politics. A MAS win under Arce might realign Bolivia with leftist allies like Venezuela and Cuba, potentially straining relations with the United States, which has expressed concerns over democratic backsliding. Conversely, a right-wing surge led by Camacho could foster closer ties with Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro or even the U.S., emphasizing anti-socialist rhetoric and market liberalization. Mesa, if victorious, might steer a middle path, focusing on reconciliation and institutional reforms.

As polls opened at 8 a.m. local time, long lines formed in cities and remote villages alike, reflecting the high engagement in this democratic exercise. Early reports indicate peaceful proceedings, but tensions simmer beneath the surface. Supporters of each candidate have mobilized rallies in recent days, with MAS rallies featuring traditional indigenous attire and calls for "dignity," while Camacho's events emphasize national unity under a conservative banner. Analysts predict a tight race, possibly requiring a runoff if no candidate secures 50% of the vote or a 10-point lead over the runner-up.

Economically, Bolivia faces daunting challenges: GDP contracted by over 10% in 2020, inflation is rising, and foreign reserves are depleted. Arce proposes reactivating the economy through public investment in infrastructure and agriculture, leveraging Bolivia's vast natural gas and lithium reserves. Camacho, on the other hand, advocates for privatization and reducing state intervention to attract investors, arguing that MAS's model has led to dependency on volatile commodity prices. Mesa calls for a diversified economy, including tourism and renewable energy, to move beyond extractivism.

Social issues also loom large. Indigenous rights, gender equality, and environmental protection are key battlegrounds. MAS has historically empowered marginalized groups, but critics accuse it of co-opting movements for political gain. The right wing, particularly Camacho's faction, draws support from evangelical Christians and agribusiness interests, often clashing with environmentalists over deforestation in the Amazon basin.

By evening, as polls close at 5 p.m., preliminary results are expected, though full counts may take days due to the country's rugged terrain and manual voting system. Whatever the outcome, this election represents a crossroads for Bolivia: a chance to heal divisions or deepen them. If the right wing gains ground, it could signal a broader conservative shift in Latin America, countering the "pink tide" of leftist governments. Yet, with MAS leading in most polls, the socialist movement's resilience underscores the enduring appeal of its redistributive policies in a nation marked by inequality.

In summary, these elections encapsulate Bolivia's struggle between continuity and change, left and right, indigenous empowerment and conservative resurgence. The world watches as Bolivians decide their future, hoping for a peaceful transition that strengthens democracy in this Andean nation. (Word count: 1,028)

Read the Full Toronto Star Article at:
[ https://www.thestar.com/news/world/americas/polls-in-bolivia-open-for-national-elections-that-could-empower-the-right-wing/article_a52ee484-4a50-5fa6-9491-0227af02aa32.html ]