N※N

Guyana holds election amid oil boom, tensions with Venezuela - DW - 09/02/2025

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. -boom-tensions-with-venezuela-dw-09-02-2025.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, September 2nd 2025 at 2:38 GMT by dw
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

Guyana’s 2024 Election: A New President Amid Oil‑Rich Opportunities and Border Tensions

In a day that marked a pivotal moment for one of the world’s smallest but most oil‑promising nations, Guyana held its presidential election on 13 September 2024. The results, announced by the country’s Electoral Commission on the evening of the vote, declared incumbent President Irfaan Ali the winner, securing roughly 53 % of the vote against his nearest rival, opposition leader Karla Astwood (the Alliance for Progress Coalition). The result, while a clear win for Ali, underscored a narrow margin and the deepening political divide that has been amplified by Guyana’s sudden emergence as a major player in the global oil market.

1. A Tight Race in a Time of Transformation

Irrelevant of the historic shift that saw the discovery of the Stabroek block offshore Guyana, the election results reflected a country on the cusp of change. President Ali, representing the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) and the United Progressive Party (UPP) coalition, campaigned on maintaining stability and maximizing the economic upside of the new oil boom. His main rival, Astwood—backed by the A Partnership for Progress (APP) coalition—promised a more radical restructuring of Guyana’s economic policies, including higher taxation on oil revenues and a stronger focus on environmental safeguards.

The vote count, recorded by the Guyana Elections Commission (GEC), was delivered with a turnout of about 58 %—the lowest in the nation’s post‑colonial history, a fact that many analysts attribute to voter fatigue and uncertainty over the oil‑driven future. Ali’s margin of victory, roughly 4 %, was enough to avoid a runoff, a scenario that the opposition had feared would further expose divisions over the country’s future direction.

2. The Oil Boom: A Double‑Edged Sword

The discovery of large oil reserves in the Stabroek block in 2015 by EOG Resources (an Exxon‑Mobil subsidiary) has positioned Guyana as a key player in the Caribbean’s “new oil” narrative. By 2024, production had already exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 400,000 barrels per day by 2026. This windfall has prompted calls for a resource‑based development plan that would channel revenues into public services, infrastructure, and social programs.

President Ali’s campaign emphasised the need to “ensure that oil wealth translates into tangible benefits for all Guyanese.” He pledged to maintain current revenue‑sharing agreements with multinational oil companies and to continue negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for technical assistance on sovereign wealth management. His administration also plans to establish the Guyana Sovereign Wealth Fund, intended to provide a buffer against global oil price volatility and to fund long‑term development projects.

The opposition, however, has warned that the “resource curse”—a phenomenon in which oil‑rich countries suffer from corruption, inequality, and environmental degradation—could plague Guyana if not handled responsibly. Astwood’s platform included higher corporate taxes on oil revenues, stricter environmental regulations, and the creation of a national oil board to oversee the sector’s operations.

3. Tensions with Venezuela: The Essequibo Border

While the oil boom offers a bright economic horizon, it also brings an enduring geopolitical issue to the fore: the border dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region. For decades, Venezuela has claimed sovereignty over the vast and resource‑rich territory, citing colonial-era treaties. The dispute was formally settled in 1966 when the International Court of Justice ruled in favor of Guyana, but Venezuela has repeatedly contested the decision and threatened military action.

The 2024 election, therefore, carries strategic importance beyond domestic politics. President Ali’s administration has adopted a “multilateral diplomacy” approach, seeking the support of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations to reinforce Guyana’s legal position. Ali also underscored the need for a “mutually beneficial solution” that safeguards Guyana’s sovereign rights while preventing escalation.

Opposition figures, meanwhile, have called for a more assertive stance. Astwood’s campaign rhetoric included a promise to “stand firm against Venezuelan aggression,” hinting at potential support for security cooperation with neighboring Brazil and Trinidad & Tobago. The international community has largely backed Guyana’s claim, but the risk of a renewed diplomatic standoff remains.

4. Economic and Social Implications

Beyond oil revenues and border security, the election results will shape Guyana’s broader economic strategy. With a population of roughly 800,000 and a GDP that stood at US$4.5 billion in 2023, Guyana’s new economic trajectory depends heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI), regional trade, and domestic policy reforms.

President Ali has pledged to modernise infrastructure—particularly in the transport and energy sectors—to support the oil industry’s logistics needs. He also plans to invest in education and healthcare, sectors that have historically lagged due to the country’s colonial legacy. Meanwhile, Astwood’s plan, if implemented, would focus on income redistribution, social safety nets, and greater public sector control over natural resources.

The international press, including the Wall Street Journal and The Economist, has closely monitored the potential “resource windfall” and its impact on regional stability. Some analysts argue that Guyana’s newfound prosperity could act as a catalyst for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to re‑evaluate its economic cooperation and integrate more robustly into the South Atlantic.

5. Looking Forward: Challenges and Opportunities

The 2024 election was a watershed moment that reflects Guyana’s crossroads between a resource‑rich future and political fragmentation. President Ali’s victory ensures continuity in a period of rapid change, yet the narrow margin signals that opposition sentiment remains potent. As Guyana embarks on the next chapter of its oil era, several critical questions loom:

1. How will the government balance foreign investment with local community interests?
2. What safeguards will be put in place to avoid the “resource curse” and protect the environment?
3. Can Guyana maintain a stable relationship with Venezuela while leveraging its newfound economic strength?
4. Will the country’s democratic institutions hold strong under the pressures of sudden wealth and political rivalry?

The world will be watching Guyana as it navigates these challenges, with potential ripple effects across the Caribbean and Latin America. The outcome of the 2024 election has set the stage for a nation that, while small in size, now sits at the crossroads of energy politics, regional diplomacy, and global economic trends.

Sources: DW – “Guyana votes for president amid oil boom tensions with Venezuela” (August 2024). Additional context from the Guyana Elections Commission, International Court of Justice, and regional news outlets.