The Myth of Continuity: Prabowo's Departure from Jokowi's Legacy

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  Politics and Government on Fri, Nov 13th, 2026 by Hubert Carizone
      Locale: INDONESIA

The Myth of Continuity

During the campaign, Prabowo positioned himself as the loyal heir to Jokowi's legacy. This strategy was designed to soothe markets and reassure the bureaucracy that the status quo would prevail. For Jokowi, ensuring a successor who would protect his projects—particularly the New Capital—was a matter of historical legacy.

Yet, two years into his tenure, Prabowo is increasingly asserting his own agency. The tension stems from a fundamental conflict: the desire of a sitting president to establish a distinct legacy versus the influence of a former president who remains a potent symbol of populist appeal and structural control. While Prabowo continues to employ some of Jokowi's rhetoric, the actual implementation of policy is beginning to deviate, suggesting that the "continuity" promised was a tactical necessity for the election rather than a strategic blueprint for governance.

Policy Divergence and Economic Stakes

One of the primary flashpoints of this fraying relationship is the management of the New Capital, Nusantara. While Jokowi viewed the city as his crowning achievement, the immense financial burden and slow pace of private investment have made it a liability. Evidence suggests that Prabowo is recalibrating the priority of the project, shifting focus toward more immediate domestic pressures and perhaps more traditional forms of national development that align with his own nationalist instincts.

Furthermore, Indonesia's "downstreaming" policy—the ban on raw mineral exports to force domestic processing—has been a hallmark of the Jokowi era. While this remains a core pillar of Indonesian economic policy, the method of execution is shifting. Prabowo's approach is increasingly characterized by a more assertive, sovereign-focused diplomacy, moving away from the quiet, pragmatic transactionalism that defined Jokowi's relationship with foreign investors, particularly those from China.

The Power Struggle and Institutional Friction

The friction between the two leaders is also reflected in the broader political architecture. Jokowi's influence persisted through the placement of loyalists in key bureaucratic positions and the elevation of his family into the political foreground. Prabowo, a former general with a deep desire for institutional authority, is unlikely to remain a figurehead for a shadow government.

As Prabowo consolidates power, he is naturally purging or sidelining elements of the "Jokowi machine" to ensure that the levers of the state respond to the presidency rather than to the legacy of the previous administration. This internal reorganization is creating a volatile environment within the ruling coalition, as parties must now decide whether their loyalty lies with the current seat of power or the enduring influence of the former president.

International Implications

On the global stage, the fraying of these ties alters Indonesia's profile. Jokowi was viewed as a cautious, infrastructure-focused leader who avoided ideological conflicts. Prabowo, conversely, brings a more traditional, nationalist, and sometimes unpredictable energy to the table. The divergence in their relationship suggests that Indonesia may move toward a more independent and assertive foreign policy, less constrained by the specific pragmatic alignments forged during the 2014–2024 period.

Conclusion

Indonesia is now on a "new path," one that was not explicitly mapped out during the 2024 transition. The fraying ties between Prabowo and Jokowi represent a return to the traditional volatility of Indonesian politics, where alliances are fluid and legacies are often rewritten by those who follow. For investors and diplomatic partners, the era of predictable continuity has ended, replaced by a period of recalibration as Prabowo attempts to step out from the shadow of his predecessor and define the next era of Indonesian sovereignty.