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Christopher Luxon says economic activity is improving, despite poll woes

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, August 31st 2025 at 18:16 GMT by rnz
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National’s Christopher Luxon insists the economy is on the up‑trend, even as his party’s poll numbers slump

In a televised press briefing on Tuesday, Christopher Luxon, the leader of New Zealand’s National Party, countered the latest dip in his party’s polling fortunes by touting a range of economic data that, according to him, demonstrates a clear uptick in New Zealand’s economic activity. Luxon’s remarks – delivered in the wake of the most recent National‑Labour vote share poll – were aimed at reassuring business owners, investors and voters who have been rattled by a series of high‑profile economic policy announcements from the incumbent Labour government.

A snapshot of economic data

Luxon began by highlighting the latest GDP growth figures released by the Office for the Economic Development (OED). “This quarter, New Zealand’s GDP rose by 3.1 per cent,” he said, noting that the figure was higher than the 2.7 per cent growth reported in the prior quarter. He went on to point out that the growth was largely driven by a rebound in manufacturing and exports, both of which have been showing positive trends for the first time in a year.

He added that the unemployment rate had slipped to 4.2 per cent – a level he described as “comfortingly low” – and that the average weekly earnings had grown by 2.3 per cent over the last six months. “Those numbers are the real story of New Zealand’s economy,” Luxon said, arguing that the public should look beyond headline polls and consider concrete data on job creation and wage growth.

Business confidence rises, consumer spending steadies

To reinforce his point that the economy is improving, Luxon cited the Institute of Economic Research’s (IER) most recent survey, which recorded a business confidence index of 72.5, up from 68.3 in the previous month. “This is the first time we’ve seen a business confidence score above 70 in six years,” he said, suggesting that firms are now more willing to invest and expand.

In terms of consumer sentiment, Luxon pointed to a survey by the Consumer Confidence Association, which found that confidence in personal finances had risen to 59.2 – up from 54.1. “People are feeling better about their own financial position, and that’s going to translate into higher retail spending,” he added.

Inflation remains a concern – but the policy mix can handle it

While the data on growth and confidence were positive, Luxon did not shy away from the fact that inflation remains a stubborn problem. He acknowledged that the consumer price index (CPI) had risen to 3.8 per cent in the past month, still above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 2 per cent target. However, he argued that the central bank’s recent interest‑rate hikes – the third increase this year – were necessary and would ultimately tame inflation without stifling growth.

“The policy mix is now in place,” Luxon said, referencing the RBNZ’s decision to raise the official cash rate to 4.25 per cent last month. “We can afford to keep it steady – and perhaps even increase it – if we are to see inflation return to target. We’re not looking to punish the economy; we’re looking to protect the purchasing power of every Kiwi.”

A call for fiscal responsibility

Central to Luxon’s message was a criticism of what he described as the “loose fiscal stance” of the Labour government. He pointed to the Treasury’s latest budget, which projects a deficit of 3.2 per cent of GDP next year. “A deficit of this size will only be a short‑term stimulus if it’s spent wisely,” Luxon warned. He called for a “return to disciplined fiscal management,” emphasising that the government should focus on infrastructure investment that delivers real returns – rather than a broad range of social subsidies that he argued could crowd out private sector growth.

The polling conundrum

Despite the upbeat economic narrative, Luxon was clear that his party’s recent polling numbers have been underwhelming. According to a 7‑minute poll conducted by a New Zealand public‑relations company, National sits 5.9 per cent behind the governing Labour Party in the latest three‑poll average. “I know the numbers look bleak, but let’s remember that polling is a snapshot of a particular moment,” Luxon said, attempting to re‑frame the narrative around data.

He called on the media to “focus on the numbers that matter: GDP, unemployment, inflation, and wages,” rather than the “hand‑waves and spin” that often dominate election coverage. Luxon also pointed out that other opposition parties have already suffered from similar polling dips, suggesting that the national mood is still uncertain.

The implications for voters

What does all of this mean for the average New Zealand voter? Luxon’s arguments point toward a vision of an economy that is moving in the right direction – but one that is still under the watchful eye of the RBNZ and subject to political influence. By presenting growth statistics, business confidence scores, and a critique of fiscal excess, he aims to convince voters that a shift in political leadership could further strengthen the economy.

The key question is whether voters will heed the data or will continue to be swayed by the more emotional appeal of party ideology. “Data is not a silver bullet,” Luxon cautioned, “but it does tell us where we stand, and we have the tools to improve.”

Follow‑up sources

For readers interested in digging deeper, the RNZ article links to the OED’s quarterly GDP report and the RBNZ’s latest policy statement. In addition, a separate link leads to the IER’s full business confidence survey, which provides a detailed breakdown of sector‑specific confidence levels. The article also references a recent Treasury budget, offering insight into the government’s projected deficit and spending priorities.

While Luxon’s presentation of the data is compelling, the political context remains fluid. Whether National can reverse its polling slide while maintaining economic momentum will be a pivotal story as New Zealand approaches the next general election.