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Persecuted Thai pro-democracy party now poised to play kingmaker

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, August 31st 2025 at 21:20 GMT by The Straits Times
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Persecuted Thai Pro‑Democracy Party Now Poised to Play Kingmaker

The political landscape in Thailand has long been dominated by a fragile equilibrium between a powerful military, an entrenched monarchy, and a series of political parties that often swing between coalition rule and opposition. In recent months, a once‑persecuted pro‑democracy party has emerged from the ashes of a court‑ordered dissolution and is now positioned to become a pivotal “kingmaker” in the country’s next general election.

From Boom to Bust: The Rise and Fall of a Reformist Force

The party in question, founded in 2018 by then‑minister of commerce Pita Limjaroenrat, quickly became the rallying point for a younger, more progressive Thai electorate. With a platform that promised lower taxes, free tertiary education, and a re‑examination of the monarchy’s constitutional role, the party drew both fierce admiration and intense scrutiny. Its name—Future Forward—signalled a desire to rewrite the post‑coup political narrative that had been left in the wake of General Prayuth Chan-ocha’s 2014 military takeover.

However, the party’s meteoric rise was abruptly halted in September 2020 when Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved it on the grounds that it had breached electoral law by encouraging a referendum on the constitution—an action that the court deemed an overreach. The decision also imposed a 10‑year ban on Pita from holding public office, effectively sending the party’s charismatic leader into exile. The ruling was widely perceived as a pre‑emptive strike by the junta‑backed establishment, which viewed the party’s growing influence as a threat to the status quo.

The Road to Re‑Emergence

In the months that followed, the party’s core activists and supporters regrouped. While the official party was no longer legal, a loose coalition of former members continued to organize under the umbrella of “Future Forward 2,” a re‑branded entity that sought to preserve the original party’s progressive ideals while navigating the legal restrictions imposed by the court. The re‑formation process involved forging new alliances with smaller regional parties, tapping into grassroots networks across Thailand’s provinces, and leveraging social media campaigns that resonated with an increasingly politically conscious electorate.

Simultaneously, the Thai monarchy, long an unchallenged symbol of national unity, found itself a point of contention. Critics argued that the monarchy’s involvement in politics, particularly its role in the 2017 constitution, effectively limited democratic progress. Pro‑democracy activists seized upon this narrative, positioning their party as the champion of a constitution that places the monarchy purely as a ceremonial institution, without direct involvement in day‑to‑day governance. The party’s messaging was carefully calibrated to avoid overt criticism of the king—an approach designed to minimize the risk of additional legal action—while still drawing a clear line between the monarchy’s symbolic role and the need for a more accountable political system.

Why the Party Could Be a Kingmaker

Thailand’s most recent general election, scheduled for 2023, is expected to produce a fragmented parliament. No single party is projected to secure a majority, and coalition politics will once again dominate. In such a scenario, the newly re‑established party—despite its diminished official status—could hold the balance of power. Several factors underscore this potential:

1. Widespread Support Among Young Voters
   Polls conducted by independent research firms show that approximately 55% of voters aged 18‑35 support the party’s platform. This demographic is critical in a country where electoral turnout among young voters is higher than that of older cohorts.

2. Strategic Alliances with Established Parties
   The party has negotiated pre‑election agreements with both the Democrat Party and the Pheu Thai Party, offering policy concessions in exchange for coalition support. These alliances could secure the party’s influence in key ministries—particularly education and health—once a government is formed.

3. International Attention and Credibility
   The United Nations Human Rights Council, as well as several Western governments, have praised the party’s commitment to democratic norms. Such international recognition can boost the party’s legitimacy domestically, as voters often perceive foreign endorsement as a sign of credibility.

4. The “Kingmaker” Narrative
   The party’s leaders have adopted a narrative that frames them as the “bridge between the people and the throne.” By advocating for a constitution that acknowledges the monarchy’s symbolic role while demanding political reforms, the party presents itself as a neutral arbiter—an attractive option for larger parties that seek to maintain stability without alienating the monarchy’s traditional supporters.

Challenges Ahead

Despite its newfound momentum, the party faces significant obstacles. The Constitutional Court’s dissolution ruling still casts a legal cloud over its operations. Any attempt to formally re‑register the party could invite renewed scrutiny and potential penalties. Moreover, the military’s deep‑rooted influence—manifested in its control of the police, the navy, and the air force—remains a formidable barrier. The junta’s 2017 constitution, which granted the military veto power over the prime minister and allowed it to appoint key officials, remains a legal reality that the party must negotiate with.

Additionally, the monarchy’s role as a “neutral arbiter” may prove a double‑edged sword. While the party has skillfully avoided direct confrontation, critics argue that it also risks being perceived as a tool of the monarchy’s hidden agenda, especially when the monarchy is traditionally revered as a unifying figure in Thai society.

Conclusion

From its swift rise and brutal dissolution to its resilient resurgence, the Thai pro‑democracy party exemplifies the volatility of modern Thai politics. Its strategic positioning—leveraging youthful enthusiasm, forging cross‑party alliances, and balancing criticism of the monarchy with respect for its symbolic role—has set it up to potentially become the “kingmaker” in Thailand’s next general election. Whether the party can translate its growing support into concrete political power remains to be seen, but its presence signals a growing appetite for reform in a nation that has, for decades, struggled to reconcile its democratic aspirations with an entrenched military and monarchical system. The coming months will test whether this new political force can sustain its momentum and shape Thailand’s future—or whether it will once again face the punitive reach of the courts and the military.